Grupo Peachtree dio la bienvenida a Mark Zandi, economista jefe de Moody's Analytics, para ver nuestra actualización de mercado más reciente. Mark es responsable de dirigir la investigación económica en torno a la macroeconomía, los mercados financieros y las políticas públicas, y ofreció sus puntos de vista sobre el desempeño de la economía estadounidense y las perspectivas a corto plazo, destacando los motivos para ser optimistas y centrándose en los beneficios estabilizadores para las inversiones inmobiliarias comerciales y en crédito privado en un contexto de inflación moderada.
Estos son algunos de los aspectos más destacados de su presentación:
Desempeño económico y de mercado:
- Crecimiento del PIB real en 2023: Aproximadamente el 2,5%, lo que supera las expectativas e indica un año sólido a pesar de la preocupación inicial por la recesión.
- Crecimiento del PIB real en 2024: Se proyecta en torno al 1,5% para el primer semestre, con una expectativa de alrededor del 2% para todo el año.
- Desempleo: En la actualidad, algo más del 4%, un ligero aumento con respecto a años anteriores, pero aún se considera bajo.
- Inflación: Sigue moderándose, con los niveles actuales muy cercanos al objetivo del 2% de la Reserva Federal.
- Tarifas a largo plazo: Se espera que el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años se estabilice en torno al 4 al 4,5%, y que los tipos hipotecarios podrían situarse justo por debajo del 6%.
- Bienes raíces comerciales: El mercado se está ajustando, especialmente en el sector de oficinas, pero se espera que la caída general de los precios y los volúmenes de transacciones se estabilicen en los próximos dos años.
Desarrollos positivos:
- Mejoras en el lado de la oferta: El aumento de la inmigración, la productividad y el aumento de la producción de petróleo de EE. UU. han ayudado a aliviar las presiones inflacionarias.
- Gasto del consumidor: Los hogares de ingresos altos se encuentran en una posición financiera sólida, lo que impulsa la economía a pesar de las dificultades entre los hogares de ingresos más bajos.
Riesgos potenciales:
- Política de la Reserva Federal: Preocupa que si la Reserva Federal no reduce los tipos pronto, podría provocar inestabilidad financiera.
- Resultados de las elecciones: Potencial de inestabilidad social e incertidumbre política en función de los resultados.
- Cuestiones fiscales a largo plazo: Los altos ratios entre deuda y PIB y la posibilidad de que se produzcan crisis fiscales en el futuro si no se abordan los desafíos fiscales a largo plazo.
Entorno de inversión:
Nosotros también somos optimistas con respecto a la economía y creemos que el escenario más probable es un aterrizaje suave, que se alinea bien con la forma en que invertimos nuestro capital. Si bien ciertas inversiones inmobiliarias comerciales se enfrentarán a dificultades a la hora de adaptarse a un entorno de tasas de interés más altas durante más tiempo, el clima sigue siendo favorable para las inversiones de capital en crédito a corto y largo plazo de Peachtree Group, así como para las estrategias oportunistas, incluido el desarrollo del sector hotelero en los próximos años. En general, muchos de los temas generales de los que habló Mark reflejan lo que hemos observado en el mercado, específicamente:
- Estabilizar las tasas de interés: El entorno crediticio altamente dislocado, con 2 billones de dólares en préstamos que vencen en los próximos tres años, se hace más manejable a medida que los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y las tasas hipotecarias a 10 años se estabilizan, creando un entorno predecible para financiar y refinanciar proyectos inmobiliarios comerciales. Esto podría conducir a un aumento de la actividad inversora.
- Moderación de la inflación: A medida que la inflación se modera, disminuyen las presiones sobre los costos de las operaciones y el desarrollo inmobiliario, lo que mejora la rentabilidad y el rendimiento de las inversiones.
- Gasto del consumidor: El fuerte gasto de los consumidores, especialmente de los hogares con ingresos altos, respalda la demanda de espacios comerciales en los sectores minorista y hotelero, a pesar de los desafíos actuales.
- Oportunidades de crédito privado: La dislocación de los mercados crediticios tradicionales crea importantes oportunidades para inversiones crediticias privadas, que ofrece rentabilidades atractivas similares a las de las acciones con un riesgo relativamente menor debido a las importantes reservas de capital en las transacciones.
- Entorno reglamentario: Los bancos regionales que se enfrentan a presiones pueden retirarse de los préstamos inmobiliarios comerciales, lo que abre oportunidades para prestamistas alternativos. Esto beneficia a los inversores crediticios privados y a quienes tienen capital para comprar préstamos y recapitalizar, al aprovechar los procesos disciplinados de la empresa y la propiedad inmobiliaria estratégica.

Mark Zandi es economista jefe de Moody's, donde dirige la investigación económica. Moody's es un proveedor líder de herramientas analíticas, de datos y de investigación económica. Zandi fue cofundador de Economy.com, empresa que Moody's compró en 2005. Forma parte de la junta directiva de MGIC, la mayor compañía privada de seguros hipotecarios del país; es el director principal de Policy Map, una empresa de visualización de datos; y forma parte del consejo del Instituto Coleridge, una organización sin fines de lucro que facilita el uso de datos en los gobiernos federales, estatales y locales. Zandi, una fuente influyente de análisis económicos para empresas, periodistas y el público, testifica con frecuencia ante el Congreso. Es autor de Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recesion and Beginning a New American Century, en el que se evalúa la respuesta de la política monetaria y fiscal a la Gran Recesión. Su otro libro, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, ha sido descrito por el New York Times como la «guía más clara» de la crisis financiera. Zandi obtuvo su licenciatura en la Escuela Wharton de la Universidad de Pensilvania y su doctorado en Economía en la Universidad de Pensilvania.
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In the latest Peachtree Point of View podcast episode, Daniel Savage, SVP of Investment & Strategy at Peachtree Group moderates a discussion with Peachtree CEO Greg Friedman and Executive Vice President of Investments Michael Ritz as they explore how the commercial real estate landscape has fundamentally shifted, creating unprecedented opportunities for special situations investing. The executives present a compelling case for deploying capital into special situations strategies—but the window won't remain open indefinitely.
The Market Reality: Strong Assets, Broken Capital Structures
Unlike previous cycles where distress stemmed from fundamental asset problems, today's opportunities are primarily driven by capital market volatility. As Michael Ritz explains: "Fundamentals generally across most commercial real estate assets outside of office are doing pretty well. But what we're seeing is just the heightened level of volatility" in capital markets.
This creates a unique environment where high-quality assets are trading at discounted valuations not because of operational issues, but due to financing constraints and capital structure challenges.
The Debt Market Disruption
The core driver of today's opportunity lies in the dramatic repricing of debt. With the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rising from near-zero levels during the pandemic to current elevated rates, traditional financing has both become more expensive. Banks are now underwriting to lower loan-to-value ratios while demanding higher debt service coverage ratios, creating significant gaps incapital stacks.
Consider this: a simple cap rate expansion from 8% to 9% can reduce a $100 million asset's value to $89 million overnight. When combined with reduced loan-to-values, property owners face substantial liquidity shortfalls that create entry points for special situations investors.
Three Key Investment Buckets
Investors should focus on three primary opportunity areas:
- Off-market acquisitions: Securing underperforming or mispriced hotels as well as select multifamily, student housing, self-storage and other commercial real estate sectors for repositioning and stabilization.
- Preferred and hybrid equity solutions: Providing flexible capital to sponsors needing liquidity for acquisitions, development or refinancing with structures designed to protect basis and enhance current yields.
- Distressed purchases from lenders: Acquiring assets directly from banks through deed-in-lieu or post-foreclosure transactions, often at discounts to outstanding loan balances and well below replacement cost.
The Hospitality Sweet Spot
Hotels present particularly compelling opportunities, with outsized exposure to near-term debt maturities due to years of "extend and pretend" financing. The sector faces approximately $15-20 billion in deferred capital expenditures, coinciding with assets built during the 2008 supply surge now requiring their typical 14-year renovation cycle.
Why Traditional Players Can't Compete
The opportunity exists precisely because few firms can provide the hybrid solutions these situations demand. Success requires capabilities across both equity and credit, enabling structured investments such as junior debt with contingent repayment ("hopenotes"), preferred equity positions, or debt-to-own strategies.
Why Special Situation Investing Works Now
For investors evaluating special situation investing opportunities, the key is partnering with operators who possess both the capital flexibility and operational expertise to navigate complex deal structures. The current environment rewards those who can move quickly on opportunities that traditional lenders and equity providers cannot address.
As Greg Friedman notes, this represents the biggest mispriced risk opportunity in commercial real estate today. The question for investors isn't whether these opportunities exist; it's whether they're positioned to capitalize on them before the market corrects.
For a deeper dive into the market dynamics and investment strategies discussed here, listen to the full conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast. The episode provides additional insights into how investors can navigate today's special situations landscape and position themselves for outsized returns in this unique market environment.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE ANY SECURITY. AN OFFERING IS MADE ONLY BY THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH PEACHTREE PC INVESTORS, LLC MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.

Peachtree Group Launches $250 Million Special Situations Fund to Capitalize on Hotel Market Dislocation
ATLANTA (July 21, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading vertically integrated commercial real estate investment platform, today announced the launch of its Peachtree Special Situations Fund, a $250 million fund designed to unlock value in mispriced, high-quality hotel and other commercial real estate assets due to today’s capital market illiquidity rather than underlying fundamentals.
“We believe the next 12 to 18 months offer some of the most compelling risk-adjusted opportunities we’ve seen since the global financial crisis,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “As balance sheet stress and refinancing hurdles intensify in the hotel space and other commercial real estate sectors, Peachtree is uniquely positioned to deploy capital where it’s needed most, delivering attractive returns while providing real solutions for sponsors and lenders alike.”
With nearly $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing in 2025 and hotels carrying some of the largest refinancing and capital expenditure burdens, Peachtree’s Special Situations Fund is positioned to step in where traditional capital has pulled back.
Many hotel and commercial real estate owners who financed properties in the zero-interest-rate era now face gaps in their capital stacksas rates remain elevated and liquidity tightens. Peachtree’s strategy bridges this gap by providing creative downside-protected capital solutions to reposition assets and unlock embedded value.
“This fund is about capitalizing on dislocation, not chaos,” Friedman said. “We’re targeting high-quality assets not distressed by systematic factors but by capital structure, and we’re doing it with the speed, creativity and certainty of execution that have defined Peachtree’s reputation for more than a decade.”
The Special Situations Fund targets investments that sit between value-add and opportunistic, combining attractive upside potential with meaningful downside protection. Core strategies include:
· Off-market acquisitions: Securing underperforming or mispriced hotels as well as select multifamily, student housing, self-storage and other commercial real estate sectors for repositioning and stabilization.
· Preferred and hybrid equity solutions: Providing flexible capital to sponsors needing liquidity for acquisitions, development or refinancing with structures designed to protect basis and enhance current yields.
· Distressed purchases from lenders: Acquiring assets directly from banks through deed-in-lieu or post-foreclosure transactions, often at discounts to outstanding loan balances and well below replacement cost.
Peachtree’s fully integrated platform spans direct lending, CPACE financing, development, acquisitions and capital markets and provides a unique lens into shifting market dynamics. Long standing relationships with community and regional banks and other stakeholders enable Peachtree to source high-value opportunities early before they reach the broader market.
“We’re the first call when a sponsor or lender needs a fast, reliable solution,” Friedman said. “Speed and surety of close are critical in this environment, especially when dealing with complex capital stacks and distressed notes.”
The fund’s geographic focus is nationwide, with significant deal flow expected in markets with strong demand fundamentals and recent pricing resets, including Texas, Florida and California. Peachtree expects to hold its first close within the next 60 to 90 days and complete the final close within its targeted 18 months following the initial close.
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Fund Information
THIS IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE ANY SECURITY. AN OFFERING IS MADE ONLY BY THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH PEACHTREE PC INVESTORS, LLC MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.

The $435 Billion Secret to Outperforming Your Competition
Every executive talks about competitive advantage, but most are voluntarily handicapping themselves 20-30% through chronic sleep deprivation. While your competition relies on caffeine and willpower, you should operate on optimized biology. Sleep optimization is a niche market that has grown into a $435 billion industry.
In a recent episode of Peachtree Point of View, Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman sits down with Dr. Anne Marie Morse, a neurologist and sleep medicine specialist, to explore how sleep optimization can become your most powerful performance tool.
Dr. Morse works with C-suite executives and competitive athletes who demand peak performance, and her insights challenge everything you think you know about time management and competitive advantage. As someone who treats rare sleep disorders while consulting with high performers globally, she reveals why your 4-6 hours of sleep might be the very thing preventing you from closing that next big deal.
"When you are chronically compromising your sleep, you start to forget the person who you optimally are and start to accept a lesser version of who you are, even if you still are viewed as a high performer," Dr. Morse explains. The science is clear: sleep-deprived executives take longer to complete tasks, make riskier decisions and miss opportunities that well-rested competitors capitalize on.
Key Takeaways:
Strategic Decision Making: Sleep deprivation compromises judgment and increases risk-taking behavior – precisely what you can't afford in high-stakes negotiations and market timing decisions
ROI on Rest: The 7-9 hours of sleep isn't lost productivity time – it's your competitive moat that allows you to work more efficiently and make better decisions than competitors operating on 4-6 hours
Travel Performance: Irregular sleep patterns from frequent travel don't just cause fatigue – they create inconsistent performance windows that can cost you deals and opportunities
Health as Wealth: Chronic sleep deprivation increases mortality risk and compromises cardiovascular health, potentially cutting short your most productive earning years
The conversation also explores practical time management strategies for busy executives, the strategic use of stimulants and why your bedtime routine might be sabotaging your sleep quality.
Ready to discover how sleep science can become your unfair advantage? Listen to the full episode of Peachtree Point of View to learn the specific strategies top performers use to optimize their circadian rhythms for peak decision-making windows.
Follow Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform for more insights on optimizing performance and identifying investment opportunities that others miss.
