Mark Zandi's Economic Outlook for Commercial Real Estate
As commercial real estate moves through another stage of the market cycle, investors are asking a familiar question: Where are the opportunities today?
In the latest episode of Peachtree Point of View, Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group, and Daniel Savage, SVP of Investment & Strategy at Peachtree Group, welcomed Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the U.S. economic outlook and what it means for commercial real estate investors.
Rather than focusing solely on interest rates, the conversation explored a broader shift taking place across capital markets. As higher financing costs reshape the industry, investment decisions are increasingly driven by capital structure, refinancing needs and disciplined underwriting.
For investors, understanding those dynamics may be just as important as following economic headlines.
What is driving today's commercial real estate market?
Several factors continue to influence investment decisions across commercial real estate.
These include:
• Higher long-term interest rates
• Moderating inflation
• Slower but stable economic growth
• A large wave of commercial real estate loan maturities
• Continued reliance on private credit
According to Zandi, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience despite ongoing uncertainty. While financing costs remain elevated, he expressed optimism about the long-term outlook for the economy, commercial real estate and financial markets.
That combination creates a market where investors must balance patience with opportunity.
Why capital allocation matters more in this cycle
Every commercial real estate cycle creates different opportunities.
Today's market is less about predicting when interest rates will decline and more about determining where capital can be deployed most effectively.
Many commercial real estate loans originated during a lower-rate environment are approaching maturity. As those loans refinance, borrowers may need additional capital or more flexible financing structures.
Friedman noted that approximately $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate loans are expected to mature over the next several years.
That refinancing activity is creating opportunities across the capital stack, particularly for investors who can provide financing solutions.
Rather than viewing this as a period of broad market distress, the discussion framed it as a period of capital repositioning.
What role does private credit play?
Private credit has become an increasingly important source of financing within commercial real estate.
What is private credit?
Private credit refers to loans made by non-bank lenders rather than traditional financial institutions. In commercial real estate, these investments can include bridge loans, construction loans, mezzanine financing and preferred equity.
As traditional lenders have become more selective, private credit has helped fill financing gaps for borrowers seeking flexible capital solutions.
During the discussion, Zandi noted that he feels better about the private credit market today than he did a year ago. He pointed to improving transparency, greater market discipline and increased attention from both investors and regulators as positive developments for the industry.
He also emphasized that private credit remains a relatively small portion of the overall financial system, while continuing to play an increasingly important role in commercial real estate financing.
Three key takeaways for investors
1. Market cycles change investment opportunities.
Today's environment requires investors to evaluate opportunities through the lens of capital structure rather than assuming lower interest rates will drive the next phase of the market.
2. Refinancing activity will remain a major market driver.
As commercial real estate loans mature, refinancing needs are likely to create opportunities for lenders, borrowers and investors across the capital stack.
3. Long-term optimism remains intact.
While near-term market conditions require discipline, Zandi expressed confidence in the long-term strength of the U.S. economy and commercial real estate. Successful investors often adapt their strategies as cycles evolve rather than relying on a single approach in every market environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is private credit in commercial real estate?
Private credit is financing provided by non-bank lenders. It includes bridge lending, construction financing, mezzanine debt and preferred equity that help borrowers finance or refinance commercial real estate projects.
Why are commercial real estate loan maturities important?
As existing loans mature, many properties must refinance at today's interest rates. This can require additional equity, new financing structures or alternative lending solutions, creating opportunities for investors with access to flexible capital.
How does capital structure affect commercial real estate investing?
Capital structure refers to how a property or investment is financed through debt, equity or hybrid financing. During periods of higher financing costs, understanding capital structure becomes increasingly important because it influences refinancing options, investment risk and potential returns.


Peachtree Group Earns Fourth Consecutive Inc. 5000 Recognition
Peachtree Group, a vertically integrated private investment firm active in commercial real estate, private credit and hospitality, today announced it has been named to the 2026 Inc. 5000, marking the firm’s fourth consecutive year on the magazine’s annual ranking of the fastest-growing private companies in the United States. Peachtree ranked 3,831 on this year’s list, with three-year revenue growth of approximately 67%.
Sustaining that pace is rare. Research from Stanford Graduate School of Business and IESE Business School found that only about 30% of companies on high-growth rankings return the following year, implying that roughly 3% would be expected to appear four successive years.
For Peachtree, the growth behind the ranking has also meant a larger team and a wider set of career paths. The firm has grown to over 3,700 employees across its investment, lending, development and hospitality businesses, with approximately 10% of open roles filled internally over the past year.
“We’re grateful for the recognition, but what I’m most proud of is the ecosystem behind it,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “We’ve built a place where someone can start in one division and build an entire career here, moving from real estate into credit, from underwriting into hotel operations, from analyst to principal, without ever having to leave. Growth on a list is a byproduct. Advancement in people’s careers is the point, and it’s the reason we’ve been able to maintain our expansion through different market environments.”
The recognition follows another milestone for the firm. Earlier this year, Peachtree was named to the inaugural PERE Credit 100, ranking among the world’s leading commercial real estate private credit managers. The annual ranking measures firms based on institutional capital raised for private real estate credit strategies over the previous five years.
“Together, these recognitions tell a consistent story,” Friedman added. “The Inc. 5000 acknowledges our ability to scale a high-growth business over time, and the PERE Credit 100 reflects the institutional platform we’ve built in commercial real estate credit. Both recognitions reveal the same foundation, a team that has earned the confidence of our investors and our partners.”

Peachtree Group Surpasses $525M in DST Offerings with Acquisitions
As investors increasingly seek tax-efficient strategies to preserve wealth and generate passive income, Peachtree Group ("Peachtree"), a leading commercial real estate investment firm, has expanded its Delaware Statutory Trust (DST) platform with two new acquisitions that provide accredited investors access to institutional-quality commercial real estate through 1031 exchange-eligible investment opportunities.

The expansion includes PG Cape Canaveral DST, anchored by the Holiday Inn Express Cape Canaveral in Florida, and PG St. Louis Industrial DST, a newly constructed Class A industrial facility in the St. Louis metropolitan area leased to Cummins Inc.
The acquisitions mark Peachtree's 14th and 15th DST offerings, bringing the total value of the firm's DST offerings to approximately $525 million since launching the platform in 2022. According to Mountain Dell Consulting, Peachtree currently ranks as the No. 7 most active 1031 exchange sponsor based on year-to-date 2026 capital raise activity.
"Our investors are looking for more than tax efficiency. They want access to high-quality real estate with durable income potential and professional management," said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. "Our DST platform has been built to deliver institutional-quality investments across sectors where we have deep operating and investment expertise, giving investors access to opportunities that are often difficult to source on their own."
PG Cape Canaveral DST is anchored by the 150-room Holiday Inn Express Cape Canaveral, a recently developed hotel located directly across from Port Canaveral, the world's busiest cruise port. The property benefits from diversified demand generated by Port Canaveral, Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Florida's Space Coast leisure destinations, creating multiple sources of lodging demand throughout the year.

PG St. Louis Industrial DST consists of a newly constructed 48,206-square-foot Class A industrial sales and service facility in the St. Louis metropolitan area. The property is 100% leased under a 15-year net lease to Cummins Inc., an investment-grade global power solutions company. Located within Gateway Commerce Center, one of the nation's premier industrial parks, the asset offers stable cash flow supported by long-term corporate tenancy and contractual annual rent increases.
"We continue to expand our DST platform with investments that meet the same underwriting standards we apply across our broader real estate business," said Tim Witt, president of 1031 Exchange and DST Products at Peachtree. "By maintaining a disciplined approach to asset selection across multiple property sectors, we're building a broader pipeline of institutional-quality opportunities that help investors achieve their long-term investment objectives."
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2026 Market Insights

Peachtree Group's leadership team is actively shaping the conversation across commercial real estate and private credit, providing perspective on a market defined by capital constraints, refinancing pressure and emerging opportunity.

What changes do you expect to see in the commercial real estate market in 2026?
Greg Friedman | Managing Principal & CEO
“It’s an inflection point… you’re going to start seeing assets trade… it’s not an issue with the fundamentals at the asset level, it’s more of an issue of broken balance sheets.”

What has been the key to the firm’s ability to succeed across different market cycles?
Jatin Desai | Managing Principal & CFO
“We’ve had to be very agile to pivot through all these various things… that’s what’s helped us find good opportunities by not being so set in being just a developer, operator or owner… and pivoting and finding the right partner really made a difference for us to do what we wanted to do, but also grow beyond that.”

How does Peachtree Group approach capital structuring for complex historic redevelopment projects?
Jared Schlosser | Head of Credit Originations and Commercial PACE
“Projects like this require thoughtful structuring given the complexity of historic redevelopment and construction completion… that complexity is exactly why sponsors seek lending partners with the experience and balance sheet to structure capital solutions and help move projects forward.”

How are deferred capital expenditures impacting the hotel sector today?
Michael Ritz | EVP Investments
“That capex doesn’t go away… brands need reinvestment to protect guest experience. But many owners simply can’t fund it.”

What does it take to successfully develop hotels in today’s market environment?
Will Woodworth | SVP, Investments
“Developing hotels in today’s environment requires both conviction and capability… our vertically integrated platform and access to capital allow us to partner with best-in-class brands to deliver properties on-time and on-budget that will elevate the markets in which we build.”

What are borrowers looking for in lending partners today?
Daniel Siegel | President and Principal CRE, Credit
“With banks pulling back and refinancing risk rising across the market, demand for experienced private lenders has accelerated… borrowers are not just looking for capital. They are looking for partners who understand assets, cash flow and downside risk.”

How is EB-5 financing supporting development projects?
Adam Greene | EVP, EB-5
“In this case and in many cases where Peachtree implements EB-5, having that funding source from these foreign investors allows us to give developers a slightly better deal than they might otherwise get from traditional sources… it’s a really worthy development tool.”
You can listen to our leadership team give these insights and more on our YouTube channel.

