In a timely and insightful conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast, host Greg Friedman sits down with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, to discuss the current economic landscape and what investors should be watching.
Zandi doesn't mince words about the current economic situation. He notes that the probability of recession has jumped from 15% to 35% in recent months, primarily due to policy decisions – especially the escalating global trade war. While he believes the economy remains"fundamentally sound," Zandi warns that continued policy uncertainty could tip the scales toward recession within weeks.
"If he continues down this path for another couple, three, four weeks, recession will be more likely than not," Zandi cautions about the administration's trade policies.
For commercial real estate investors, Zandi offers a sobering perspective on interest rates. Despite the administration's desire for lower rates, he believes the 10-year Treasury yield (around 4.1%) is appropriately priced for a well-functioning economy. Unless we enter a recession, Zandi doesn't foresee significant rate decreases in the near term.
Commercial real estate, which Zandi acknowledges has"been in a recession the last three years," faces continued challenges. While he believes much of the valuation adjustment is complete, a broader economic recession would mean "another leg down in valuations and pricing."
For investors trying to gauge recession risks, Zandi offers practical metrics to monitor:
On private credit markets, Zandi noted that private credit has played a critical role in recent years, stepping in to provide capital when banks pulled back, which he believes helped the U.S. avoid a recession. The market has grown rapidly, now estimated at $1.7 trillion and surpassing the high-yield bond market and rivaling the size of the leveraged loan market.
Zandi's parting advice? "Buckle up." With policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting consumer sentiment, the economic road ahead promises to be bumpy.
To hear the full conversation and gain deeper insights on navigating these challenging markets, listen to the complete episode of Peachtree Point of View with Mark Zandi on your favorite podcast platform.
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Bloomberg Radio | Greg Friedman discussed the fragile state of the commercial real estate market, with transaction volumes down 50% due to higher interest rates. Over the next 12 months, $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans will mature, offering opportunities for well-capitalized buyers. The conversation also highlighted the growing importance of private credit,which now makes up 10% of the commercial real estate ecosystem, providing stability. Additionally, there was a mention of the bifurcation in the office sector, with better-quality buildings showing recovery.
ATLANTA (September 2, 2025) - Peachtree Group ("Peachtree"), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, has been named to two prestigious growth rankings, underscoring the firm’s momentum as a leading force in commercial real estate investment.
Inc. revealed that Peachtree Group earned a place on the 2025 Inc. 5000 list of the fastest-growing private companies in the U.S., marking the third consecutive year the firm has been honored. The Inc. 5000 list provides a data-driven look at the most successful independent and entrepreneurial businesses across the nation.
In addition, the Atlanta Business Chronicle recognized Peachtree Group asan honoree in its 30th annual Pacesetter Awards, which celebrate the fastest-growing privately held companies based in metro Atlanta. Honorees were evaluated on revenue and employee growth from 2022 through 2024 and ranked using a growth index formula to ensure fair comparison across companies of varying sizes.
“We are in the business of identifying and capitalizing on mispriced risk, and in today’s environment of disruption and dislocation, that has created strong tailwinds for our growth,” said Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal and CEO. “These recognitions validate our ability to execute in complex markets, and we see significant opportunity ahead as we continue to scale our platform. We believe the next several years will be among the most compelling investment environments in recent history.”
Peachtree Group remains focused on delivering innovative investment strategies and strong results for its stakeholders while expanding its presence across the U.S.
Peachtree Group, in partnership with Paso Robles Hotel Partners, has opened The Ava Hotel in California’s Central Coast wine country. Part of the Curio Collection by Hilton, the upscale property is located in downtown Paso Robles next to the city’s historic town square and is managed by Azul Hospitality Group.
The Ava, Paso Robles’ first lifestyle-branded hotel, features 151 guestrooms and suites. Guests can choose from standard layouts including single king, double queen, and double king rooms, or opt for enhanced accommodations with Juliet balconies opening to floor-to-ceiling doors or poolside patios with direct access to the rooftop saltwater pool. For more space, one-bedroom and double queen suites include 1.5 bathrooms, living areas with fireplaces, powder rooms, and sofa sleepers.
Related Coverage: The Ava Hotel opens in Paso Robles, CA
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