Grupo Peachtree dio la bienvenida a Mark Zandi, economista jefe de Moody's Analytics, para ver nuestra actualización de mercado más reciente. Mark es responsable de dirigir la investigación económica en torno a la macroeconomía, los mercados financieros y las políticas públicas, y ofreció sus puntos de vista sobre el desempeño de la economía estadounidense y las perspectivas a corto plazo, destacando los motivos para ser optimistas y centrándose en los beneficios estabilizadores para las inversiones inmobiliarias comerciales y en crédito privado en un contexto de inflación moderada.
Estos son algunos de los aspectos más destacados de su presentación:
Desempeño económico y de mercado:
- Crecimiento del PIB real en 2023: Aproximadamente el 2,5%, lo que supera las expectativas e indica un año sólido a pesar de la preocupación inicial por la recesión.
- Crecimiento del PIB real en 2024: Se proyecta en torno al 1,5% para el primer semestre, con una expectativa de alrededor del 2% para todo el año.
- Desempleo: En la actualidad, algo más del 4%, un ligero aumento con respecto a años anteriores, pero aún se considera bajo.
- Inflación: Sigue moderándose, con los niveles actuales muy cercanos al objetivo del 2% de la Reserva Federal.
- Tarifas a largo plazo: Se espera que el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años se estabilice en torno al 4 al 4,5%, y que los tipos hipotecarios podrían situarse justo por debajo del 6%.
- Bienes raíces comerciales: El mercado se está ajustando, especialmente en el sector de oficinas, pero se espera que la caída general de los precios y los volúmenes de transacciones se estabilicen en los próximos dos años.
Desarrollos positivos:
- Mejoras en el lado de la oferta: El aumento de la inmigración, la productividad y el aumento de la producción de petróleo de EE. UU. han ayudado a aliviar las presiones inflacionarias.
- Gasto del consumidor: Los hogares de ingresos altos se encuentran en una posición financiera sólida, lo que impulsa la economía a pesar de las dificultades entre los hogares de ingresos más bajos.
Riesgos potenciales:
- Política de la Reserva Federal: Preocupa que si la Reserva Federal no reduce los tipos pronto, podría provocar inestabilidad financiera.
- Resultados de las elecciones: Potencial de inestabilidad social e incertidumbre política en función de los resultados.
- Cuestiones fiscales a largo plazo: Los altos ratios entre deuda y PIB y la posibilidad de que se produzcan crisis fiscales en el futuro si no se abordan los desafíos fiscales a largo plazo.
Entorno de inversión:
Nosotros también somos optimistas con respecto a la economía y creemos que el escenario más probable es un aterrizaje suave, que se alinea bien con la forma en que invertimos nuestro capital. Si bien ciertas inversiones inmobiliarias comerciales se enfrentarán a dificultades a la hora de adaptarse a un entorno de tasas de interés más altas durante más tiempo, el clima sigue siendo favorable para las inversiones de capital en crédito a corto y largo plazo de Peachtree Group, así como para las estrategias oportunistas, incluido el desarrollo del sector hotelero en los próximos años. En general, muchos de los temas generales de los que habló Mark reflejan lo que hemos observado en el mercado, específicamente:
- Estabilizar las tasas de interés: El entorno crediticio altamente dislocado, con 2 billones de dólares en préstamos que vencen en los próximos tres años, se hace más manejable a medida que los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y las tasas hipotecarias a 10 años se estabilizan, creando un entorno predecible para financiar y refinanciar proyectos inmobiliarios comerciales. Esto podría conducir a un aumento de la actividad inversora.
- Moderación de la inflación: A medida que la inflación se modera, disminuyen las presiones sobre los costos de las operaciones y el desarrollo inmobiliario, lo que mejora la rentabilidad y el rendimiento de las inversiones.
- Gasto del consumidor: El fuerte gasto de los consumidores, especialmente de los hogares con ingresos altos, respalda la demanda de espacios comerciales en los sectores minorista y hotelero, a pesar de los desafíos actuales.
- Oportunidades de crédito privado: La dislocación de los mercados crediticios tradicionales crea importantes oportunidades para inversiones crediticias privadas, que ofrece rentabilidades atractivas similares a las de las acciones con un riesgo relativamente menor debido a las importantes reservas de capital en las transacciones.
- Entorno reglamentario: Los bancos regionales que se enfrentan a presiones pueden retirarse de los préstamos inmobiliarios comerciales, lo que abre oportunidades para prestamistas alternativos. Esto beneficia a los inversores crediticios privados y a quienes tienen capital para comprar préstamos y recapitalizar, al aprovechar los procesos disciplinados de la empresa y la propiedad inmobiliaria estratégica.

Mark Zandi es economista jefe de Moody's, donde dirige la investigación económica. Moody's es un proveedor líder de herramientas analíticas, de datos y de investigación económica. Zandi fue cofundador de Economy.com, empresa que Moody's compró en 2005. Forma parte de la junta directiva de MGIC, la mayor compañía privada de seguros hipotecarios del país; es el director principal de Policy Map, una empresa de visualización de datos; y forma parte del consejo del Instituto Coleridge, una organización sin fines de lucro que facilita el uso de datos en los gobiernos federales, estatales y locales. Zandi, una fuente influyente de análisis económicos para empresas, periodistas y el público, testifica con frecuencia ante el Congreso. Es autor de Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recesion and Beginning a New American Century, en el que se evalúa la respuesta de la política monetaria y fiscal a la Gran Recesión. Su otro libro, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, ha sido descrito por el New York Times como la «guía más clara» de la crisis financiera. Zandi obtuvo su licenciatura en la Escuela Wharton de la Universidad de Pensilvania y su doctorado en Economía en la Universidad de Pensilvania.
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As we move deeper into 2025, the market remains defined by volatility, dislocation and uncertainty. At Peachtree Group, we don’t wait for clarity, we lead through complexity. Despite persistent interest rate headwinds and shifting investor dynamics, our senior leaders see not just challenges but opportunities to deploy capital with precision, creativity and discipline. Here they share candid insights on navigating this evolving landscape, uncovering value where others see risk and positioning Peachtree to emerge stronger on the other side of the cycle.

“The truth is, we’re not waiting for a storm—we’re already in it. In any storm, pain is inevitable, but suffering is optional. For the past several years, we’ve operated in a market shaped by disruption: historic rate hikes, geopolitical shocks and policy uncertainty. We had hoped that we would have seen the darkest moments already, but this cycle had other plans. We’re navigating headwinds in real time, positioning ourselves to endure and emerge stronger. The next six months will likely bring continued volatility with persistent inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and fragmented capital markets. Still, within that turbulence, signals of clarity are beginning to emerge. As visibility returns, whether through promised tax reform, trade resolution or regulatory recalibration, so too will stability.Our approach is simple. We don’t ignore the storm; we prepare for it. We position our portfolio not to avoid pain but to minimize unnecessary suffering.We are beginning to see the light and are positioned to lead as it returns.”
Greg Friedman, Managing Principal and CEO
“As a team, we’ve successfully navigated downturns, market volatility and shifting political and economic landscapes. Each disruption has only strengthened our resilience and sharpened our edge. While others view unpredictability as discomfort, we see it as an opportunity. It is the space where we thrive, uncovering opportunities to deploy capital and generate exceptional returns.”
Jatin Desai, Managing Principal and CFO
“Volatility continues to define the CRE landscape, disrupting early signs of recovery and forcing a rethink for many market participants. At Peachtree, we remain focused on fundamentals such as location, sponsorship, basis and demand drivers, which tend to outperform through cycles.With traditional lenders pulling back, we are actively financing high quality assets at a premium yield and expect continued opportunity in refinances, loan purchases and situations where execution, not momentum, is what matters.”
Michael Harper, President, Hotel Lending
“The uncertainty of the next 12 months isn’t just about the horizon; it’s about the volatility we face week to week. As transactions pick up, we’ll see the true impact of the value reset, prompting re-margining, recapitalizations or dispositions across the board. With investor liquidity constrained and borrowers under pressure, we expect a rise in structured equity solutions and accelerated asset sales, especially if employment softens and fundamentals weaken.”
Michael Ritz, Executive Vice President, Investments
“We’re operating in a higher-for-longer rate environment, but deals are still getting done—and the dislocation we're seeing now is creating actionable opportunities rather than road blocks. Broken capital stacks, rising distress, and general uncertainty are revealing compelling entry points for preferred equity and rescue capital, where we can participate in upside while preserving downside protection. At Peachtree, we thrive in moments like this—our creative structuring and execution strength allow us to play offense while others wait for clarity.”
Michael Bernath, Senior Vice President, Acquisitions & Dispositions
“Over the next 12 to 18 months, investors will find compelling opportunities to generate attractive, non-correlated alpha through private credit and special situations. Peachtree is actively capitalizing on market dislocation and mispriced risk with strategic, nimble allocations across the capital stack. This environment allows us to play selective offense and deliver strong performance for our LPs.
Daniel Savage, Senior Vice President, Investments & Strategy
“Capital markets volatility, especially in the CMBS and CRE CLO space, creates a unique advantage for lenders like Peachtree that do not rely on securitized executions. As banks are pressured to offload sub-performing loans, we see strong opportunities in the $20–75 million loan range, mainly through deeper stretch senior structures. We remain optimistic about exiting pre-COVID investments and expanding strategies that capitalize on today’s pricing dislocation and policy-driven market shifts.”
Jeremy Stoler, Executive Vice President, Debt Capital Markets
“Market dislocation will drive meaningful opportunities for Peachtree, particularly as refinancing challenges and reduced liquidity sideline many market participants. Sectors like hospitality, multifamily and land remain attractive, especially where bridge and construction lending can solve capital stack gaps. With fewer players in the space and distress beginning to surface, we’re well positioned to deploy capital where others can’t or won’t.”
Jared Schlosser, Executive Vice President, Hotel Originations and Head of CPACE
“Commercial real estate is navigating a uniquely complex moment, shaped by macro pressures like tariffs, inflation and geopolitical fragmentation, and micro realities such as capital expenditure burdens, labor inflation and localized demand shifts. In hotels where reinvestment is non-negotiable and operating costs are rising, the ability to underwrite location, efficiency and adaptive revenue strategies is critical. Today’s dislocation lies in broken capital stacks with unfinished developments, over-leveraged deals, and liquidity-starved sponsors, which are offering compelling opportunities for well-positioned credit investors who can move with precision and discipline.”
Sameer Nair, Senior Vice President, Equity Asset Management
“Uncertainty is sidelining many investors, but that’s precisely where opportunity emerges. We see the most actionable dislocation in debt today, with equity and preferred equity likely to follow. Bridge lending remains compelling, but flexibility across the capital stack is key. While others pause, we’re leaning into select development, knowing today’s starts will be tomorrow’s top assets. Peachtree has grown the most during disruption, and we believe this next cycle will be no different.”
Brian Waldman, Chief Investment Officer

Peachtree Opens Hampton Inn in Hawaii

Hampton Inn & Suites Maui North Shore is now open in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii. The newly built oceanfront hotel, located on the site of the historic Maui Palms Hotel, is owned by Peachtree Group and operated by Springboard Hospitality. The hotel has 136 rooms, ocean-view suites and a design rooted in Maui’s culture.
Read more in this article in Lodging Magazine.

Peachtree Group Opens New Office in Austin
Peachtree Group has expanded its national presence with the opening of its first office outside of its Atlanta headquarters in downtown Austin. This move aligns with the company’s growth strategy and commitment to Texas’ commercial real estate market, according to the company.

With significant investments across the state, including ongoing developments in Dallas and San Antonio and an upcoming project in Austin, establishing an office in the state capital conforms with Peachtree’s long-term vision. Austin’s business environment and growth prospects make it an ideal location to strengthen the firm’s reach and partnerships, according to the company.
Peachtree’s connection to Austin runs deep. The firm has been recognized among the Longhorn 100, a distinction honoring the fastest-growing businesses led by the University of Texas alumni. Additionally, Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal/CEO, a University of Texas graduate, actively supports the institution by serving on the Real Estate Fund Advisory Board for the Texas McCombs School of Business.
“Our expansion into Austin marks an exciting milestone for Peachtree Group,” said Friedman. “Texas is a critical market for us, and establishing an office in the heart of downtown Austin will allow us to better support our growing portfolio and deepen our relationships in the region. With our ongoing projects across the state and our strong ties to the University of Texas community, this move reinforces our commitment to long-term investment and growth in Texas.”
The new office is in the 100 Congress building and will serve as a hub for Peachtree’s investment and development activities in the region.