2025 CRE Market Forecast: Adapting to Disruption

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The commercial real estate industry has entered a transformative period defined by Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. The interplay of macro-economic pressures, financial challenges and anticipated policy changes from the new administration has created a volatile environment that demands adaptability and strategic thinking from stakeholders.

Headwinds in CRE

The chaos in CRE stems from structural shifts and economic headwinds reshaping the industry. Elevated interest rates have fundamentally altered investment returns, making debt more expensive and refinancing significantly harder. An ongoing "wall of debt maturities," totaling $3.6 trillion over the next 36 months, will force owners to manage or restructure obligations under far less favorable conditions than when loans were originated.

We are at historic levels of debt maturing as we are at the tail end of a wave of CRE loans maturing, many of which originated before 2022, particularly in 2014 and 2015, reflecting the prevalent 10-year loan terms of that period. To put this into context, the average interest rate on CRE loans originated in 2024 was roughly 6.2% versus the 4.3% rate on maturing mortgages—a nearly200-basis-point increase, according to S&P Global.

Meanwhile, the new administration's plans to cut costs and tighten immigration policies introduce uncertainty, complicating operational and labor-related decisions. While the immigration policy discussions may create short-term volatility, its impact on long-term CRE investments is expected to be minimal. These discussions serve as an "eye candy" distraction without substantial consequences for capital deployment or the asset class's attractiveness.

These factors foster a chaotic and volatile environment, disrupting traditional approaches to ownership, transactions and refinancing.

Creativity Key to CRE Challenges

CRE investments are inherently complex, and the current chaotic market magnifies these challenges. Rising debt obligations now exceed asset performance, particularly as rent growth and NOI struggle to keep pace with increasing costs. Market stress varies across sectors, with some assets thriving while others falter under outdated financing terms and reduced liquidity.

The complications stemming from broken capital stacks and operational challenges are expected to peak this year. Higher interest rates and more conservative lending criteria make debt restructuring increasingly tricky. Insurance and heightened compliance costs exacerbate inefficiencies, further straining asset performance.

In this challenging environment, creativity is no longer optional but essential. Owners and investors must adopt innovative strategies to structure deals, recapitalize assets and maintain competitiveness.

Strategies like CPACE financing, which enhances building efficiency while addressing funding gaps, and EB-5 investments, which access foreign capital through immigrant investor programs, offer viable solutions. Preferred equity and mezzanine debt can fill capital stack gaps, while private credit provides customized financing arrangements tailored to asset-specific needs. Creative structuring, such as Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs), maximizes tax advantages and enhances cash flow predictability.

Tax Deferred Investing

Tax considerations should also play a vital role in determining your investment strategies. Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs) offer appealing solutions for 1031 exchange investors seeking tax deferral and portfolio diversification through high-quality assets.

Opportunity Zones remain one of the most significant tax benefits across the country while furthering the cause of urban redevelopment. These tax-advantaged instrument allows investors to reduce their tax burdens and extract more value from their CRE investments.

The Road Ahead

This year will be a watershed moment for commercial real-estate stakeholders. The erratic nature of the market means that financial tools must be intimately understood, and alternative approaches embraced. Success will come down to adaptability, innovation and a deep understanding of market dynamics. Although the headwinds will be persistent, this environment provides unique opportunities for those who are prepared to embrace the four Cs and help define a creative way forward.

The Peachtree Group team will share their insights into how the market is shaping up and how they plan to adapt their strategies to navigate Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. Each aims to overcome the headwinds and seize the opportunities presented in this transformative period for the commercial real estate industry.

The Peachtree Group team shares their insights into how the market is shaping up and how they plan to adapt their strategies to navigate Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. Each aims to overcome the headwinds and seize the opportunities presented in this transformative period for the commercial real estate industry. Read Peachtree's House Views Here.

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Peachtree Group announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.
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ATLANTA (Oct. 15, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, today announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.

Monge brings more than two decades of leadership experience in hospitality, real estate investment and operations to Peachtree. Most recently, he served as president of Seaview Investors where he led asset management and daily operations for a portfolio of eight Marriott and Hilton-branded upscale hotels in California. Before this, he spent nearly 16 years at Sunstone Hotel Investors, rising to senior vice president, chief administrative officer, secretary and treasurer, where he oversaw corporate functions and played a pivotal role in managing a $3.9 billion asset base.

“Lindsay’s extensive background leading hotel operations and real estate investment platforms makes him an invaluable addition to our leadership team,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “His experience across public REITs, private equity and owner-operator platforms uniquely positions him to enhance value creation for our investors while strengthening our asset management capabilities.”

His career also includes senior leadership roles at Magna Flow as chief operating officer and at Alpha Wave Investors as chief administrative officer and partner where he directed strategic planning, growth initiatives and asset repositioning strategies. Earlier in his career, Monge held management positions at The Westgate Hotel and began his hospitality career in Hilton’s executive management program at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.

Monge earned an MBA in strategy and leadership from the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in hotel administration from Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration. He also completed executive education in the LEAD Business Program at Stanford Graduate School of Business.

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ATLANTA (Oct. 13, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) announced today the launch of a new equipment finance division, further broadening its credit platform and reinforcing its ability to provide flexible equipment lease financing across industries, including commercial real estate and hospitality.

The division will be led by seasoned executives Brian Shaughnessy and Roger Johnson, who together bring more than 60 years of experience in equipment finance, specialty finance and portfolio acquisitions. They will be joined by experienced industry executive Dennis Shields, further strengthening the team’s depth and expertise. Shields spent the last 15 years with Meridian Leasing, helping to grow its profitable leasing business.

“This launch is more than the start of a new business line. It continues relationships that span more than 15 years,” said Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal and CEO. “We have known and worked alongside Brian and Roger for well over a decade, watching them build reputations as trusted leaders in equipment finance. Their arrival marks both a reunion and a natural extension of our long-standing ties.”

This new platform represents a progression of Peachtree’s established private credit ecosystem. Many of the firm’s commercial real estate clients also require equipment financing, particularly in hospitality, where Furniture, Fixtures,and Equipment (FF&E) play a critical role in new developments. By building on the firm’s long-standing history and applying proven expertise from its principals’ experience financing essential use equipment, Peachtree is positioned to deliver tailored financing solutions that address client needs across multiple sectors and industries.

The launch highlights Peachtree’s ability to adapt its platform to fill gaps left by traditional lenders while keeping long-term client relationships at the center of its strategy.

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“Large banks continue to pull back from serving small and mid-sized businesses, leaving a significant void in the market,” Friedman said. “Our new platform allows us to step in with creative financing solutions, whether that means helping medical facilities upgrade technology or supporting hotels with FF&E for new developments, so businesses can access the capital they need to grow.”

Shaughnessy, who joins as president and principal of the equipment finance division, is a senior executive with more than 35 years of experience in financial services and investment banking. He was most recently co-founder and CEO of IMT Commercial, an alternative portfolio and asset acquisition and management firm.

Johnson, who will serve as executive vice president and principal, is a 30-year portfolio acquisitions and commercial lending veteran. He has a proven track record of developing profitable relationships with C-suite decision-makers at a wide range of financial institutions. Both Shaughnessy and Johnson founded and grew IMT Commercial Credit into a top 120 equipment finance business.  

The new unit will initially focus on financing lease transactions ranging from $500,000 to $10 million with terms generally between 24 and 84 months. By leveraging Peachtree’s established credit expertise, infrastructure and balance sheet strength, the division aims to deliver competitive financing options while ensuring timely funding and long-term client relationships.

“Equipment finance requires a deep understanding of the assets, from valuation to structuring and exit strategies,” said Shaughnessy. “Our team brings decades of specialized knowledge that allows us to evaluate risk effectively and deliver certainty of execution for clients.”

Johnson added,“Leasing involves extensive coordination with clients, vendors and lenders, and our goal is to make the process seamless. Clients can count on us not only to secure financing but also to manage the details that keep projects moving forward.”

“Equipment finance is a relationship-driven business where execution matters,” Shields, senior vice president, said. “Our goal is to combine decades of industry expertise with Peachtree’s deep credit platform to offer reliable, creative solutions to clients who are often underserved in today’s lending environment.”

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Fortune: Commercial real estate’s seismic transformation is creating new winners—and losers— in the property market

There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.
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Fortune | There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.

The outlook for the office sector has been particularly negative. It’s a tale of two markets right now: roughly 30% of office buildings account for 90% of the vacancies and may never recover, while the other 70% have the chance to stabilize over time. Either way, the office market finds itself at an inflection point, much like the retail market as mall acquisitions were being financed.

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