In our recent market update call, we hear insights from Larry Adam the Chief Investment Officer of Raymond James, alongside Greg Friedman, Managing Principal & CEO of Peachtree Group and Daniel Savage, VP Equity Capital Markets of Peachtree Group. One of the standout moments from the discussion was an intriguing investment takeaway that highlights the importance of consistent investing over trying to time the market based on political cycles.
Consider this: if you had invested $10,000 in the stock market starting in 1970 and only remained invested during Republican presidencies, your investment would have grown to approximately $133,000 by now. Conversely, if you had only stayed invested during Democratic presidencies, your portfolio would have soared to around $700,000.
Now, here’s where the numbers become even more compelling. If you had stayed fully invested in the market, regardless of which party was in power, that initial $10,000 would have appreciated to an impressive $1.6 million!
Timing the market based on political affiliation has proven to be less effective than maintaining a consistent investment strategy. As Larry Adam pointed out, “It's more important to be in the market than trying to find the market. I think that's a critical lesson…”
The volatility that comes with political changes can tempt investors to pull back or make hasty decisions. However, history shows that those who remain patient and invested through all market conditions tend to reap the greatest rewards.
Larry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as Chief Investment Officer. With over thirty years of experience in the financial markets, Mr. Adam brings a wealth of knowledge and valuable insights on the markets and economy to advisors and clients. As CIO, Mr. Adam develops the firm’s CIO view, a cohesive and comprehensive macro outlook, using insights and perspectives from the firm’s strategists. Mr. Adam presents at numerous client events and is renowned for his ability to explain complex concepts to investors.
Mr. Adam provides advisors and clients with in-depth guidance regarding the markets, including weekly and monthly commentary and quarterly outlooks. In addition to serving as President of the Investment Strategy Committee, he also sits on the Global Wealth Solutions (GWS) Diversity & Inclusion Campus Recruitment Committee, the GWS Executive Council, and the Alternative and Structured Investments Product Approval Committee.
Prior to joining Raymond James, Mr. Adam held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and Global Chief Investment Strategist for Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. He received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master’s degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. Mr. Adam is an adjunct professor at the Sellinger School of Business and Management at Loyola University, teaching classes in International Finance. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management® certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Mr. Adam is regularly featured on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s.
The commercial real estate market is sending mixed signals, but Mark Vitner, chief economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital, cuts through the noise with a stark reality check: real estate values remain significantly overpriced and the correction isn't over.
In our latest Peachtree Point of View podcast episode,Vitner shares crucial insights every real estate investor needs to hear. While we've avoided the deep recession many predicted, the market hasn't fully adjusted to the new interest rate environment. That creates both risks and opportunities for savvy investors.
The 10-year Treasury, currently trading around 4.5%, isn't high. It's actually at the low end of where rates should be over the next decade. Vitner argues that fair value is closer to 4.7%, with the potential to hit 5% or higher. This shift marks the end of the artificially low-rate era that inflated asset values. Properties must now reprice accordingly.
The disconnect is already evident in the field. At Peachtree Group, CEO Greg Friedman is seeing a 10 to 15% gap between what sellers believe their properties are worth and their true intrinsic value, a lingering effect of years of abundant liquidity that many still expect to return.
But this is where opportunity arises. Vitner recommends targeting investments with high barriers to entry and strong investor control, especially in markets where policy makers have started encouraging development. The sweet spot, according to Vitner, is mixed-use projects in mid-sized cities undergoing a renaissance, where the smartphone generation wants to be closer to the action.
Key Investment Takeaways:
• Interest rates are structurally higher: The 10-year treasury will likely trade between 4.5-5.5% in non-recessionary periods, fundamentally resetting real estate valuations
• Geographic opportunities exist: Markets like Charleston, South Carolina, and emerging Alabama markets offer growth with natural barriers to entry, while formerly hot markets like Nashville have cooled
• Mixed-use is the future: Lifestyle-oriented developments that combine residential, retail, and entertainment are capturing demand as people seek walkable, amenity-rich environments
• Debt maturity wall creates pressure: Massive amounts of commercial real estate debt will refinance at much higher rates, forcing realistic pricing discussions
• Consumer spending is shifting: Expect retail consolidation at the lower end as consumer spending normalizes from 71% to a more sustainable 67-68% of GDP
The full conversation reveals why this market correction isn't your typical cycle and how prepared investors can capitalize on the repricing ahead. Don't miss Vitner's complete analysis of regional market dynamics, demographic shifts, and tactical investment strategies.
Listen to the complete episode of Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform for the full strategic breakdown every commercial real estate investor needs to navigate today's market realities.
You don't think twice about skipping a workout or hitting snooze, until six months later when your back goes out lifting a suitcase. That's the thing about choices: they rarely shout. Most whisper. At the moment, they feel light, harmless, and even forgettable. But over time, they stack up and eventually shape everything.
It's the same in commercial real estate.
For years, the market rewarded financial engineering. Falling interest rates, cap rate compression and cheap capital allowed many investors to ride the momentum and still generate strong returns. That era is over.
We're now operating in a higher-for-longer environment. Interest rates are elevated, traditional lenders have pulled back, and capital markets are volatile. Macroeconomic disruptions, geopolitical risk and inflation-shifting trading policy are repricing risk in real time.
In this environment, every move matters. Every decision, whether to buy, sell, recapitalize or hold, carries more weight than it did even a year ago.
· Capital must be deployed with precision. The margin for error has narrowed. Mispricing risk, overleveraging,or relying on optimistic underwriting can quickly impair a deal.
· Liquidity is a strategic advantage.In a market where many lenders have pulled back or lowered leverage, execution certainty is no longer assumed. It's earned.
· Fundamentals, not financial engineering, define success. Cap rate compression is no longer the tailwind it once was. Returns must come from operational excellence, asset quality and disciplined management.
· Time is costly. In action can be just as damaging as a poor decision. Delays in refinancing or hesitation in uncertain markets can weigh heavily on performance.
At Peachtree, we've built our platform for this exact environment. With a fully integrated investment and credit platform, deep experience across market cycles, and flexible capital ready to deploy, we're well-positioned to take decisive action when others hesitate.
Because in this market, as inlife, every action has a weight and the most successful outcomes are born from clarity, discipline and conviction.
Private credit remains one of the most compelling solutions in today's market, offering downside protection, yield and flexibility. And with traditional capital still constrained, special situation investing is gaining momentum as a primary strategy to unlock value in a dislocated market.
As the landscape evolves, we continue to seek opportunities that leverage our strengths and provide value to our investors.
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As we move deeper into 2025, the market remains defined by volatility, dislocation and uncertainty. At Peachtree Group, we don’t wait for clarity, we lead through complexity. Despite persistent interest rate headwinds and shifting investor dynamics, our senior leaders see not just challenges but opportunities to deploy capital with precision, creativity and discipline. Here they share candid insights on navigating this evolving landscape, uncovering value where others see risk and positioning Peachtree to emerge stronger on the other side of the cycle.
“The truth is, we’re not waiting for a storm—we’re already in it. In any storm, pain is inevitable, but suffering is optional. For the past several years, we’ve operated in a market shaped by disruption: historic rate hikes, geopolitical shocks and policy uncertainty. We had hoped that we would have seen the darkest moments already, but this cycle had other plans. We’re navigating headwinds in real time, positioning ourselves to endure and emerge stronger. The next six months will likely bring continued volatility with persistent inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and fragmented capital markets. Still, within that turbulence, signals of clarity are beginning to emerge. As visibility returns, whether through promised tax reform, trade resolution or regulatory recalibration, so too will stability. Our approach is simple. We don’t ignore the storm; we prepare for it. We position our portfolio not to avoid pain but to minimize unnecessary suffering. We are beginning to see the light and are positioned to lead as it returns.” — Greg Friedman, Managing Principal and CEO
“As a team, we’ve successfully navigated downturns, market volatility and shifting political and economic landscapes. Each disruption has only strengthened our resilience and sharpened our edge. While others view unpredictability as discomfort, we see it as an opportunity. It is the space where we thrive, uncovering opportunities to deploy capital and generate exceptional returns.” — Jatin Desai, Managing Principal and CFO
“Volatility continues to define the CRE landscape, disrupting early signs of recovery and forcing a rethink for many market participants. At Peachtree, we remain focused on fundamentals such as location, sponsorship, basis and demand drivers, which tend to outperform through cycles. With traditional lenders pulling back, we are actively financing high quality assets at a premium yield and expect continued opportunity in refinances, loan purchases and situations where execution, not momentum, is what matters.” — Michael Harper, President, Hotel Lending
“The uncertainty of the next 12 months isn’t just about the horizon; it’s about the volatility we face week to week. As transactions pick up, we’ll see the true impact of the value reset, prompting re-margining, recapitalizations or dispositions across the board. With investor liquidity constrained and borrowers under pressure, we expect a rise in structured equity solutions and accelerated asset sales, especially if employment softens and fundamentals weaken.” — Michael Ritz, Executive Vice President, Investments
“We’re operating in a higher-for-longer rate environment, but deals are still getting done—and the dislocation we're seeing now is creating actionable opportunities rather than road blocks. Broken capital stacks, rising distress, and general uncertainty are revealing compelling entry points for preferred equity and rescue capital, where we can participate in upside while preserving downside protection. At Peachtree, we thrive in moments like this—our creative structuring and execution strength allow us to play offense while others wait for clarity.” — Michael Bernath, Senior Vice President, Acquisitions & Dispositions
“Over the next 12 to 18 months, investors will find compelling opportunities to generate attractive, non-correlated alpha through private credit and special situations. Peachtree is actively capitalizing on market dislocation and mispriced risk with strategic, nimble allocations across the capital stack. This environment allows us to play selective offense and deliver strong performance for our LPs. — Daniel Savage, Senior Vice President, Investments & Strategy
“Capital markets volatility, especially in the CMBS and CRE CLO space, creates a unique advantage for lenders like Peachtree that do not rely on securitized executions. As banks are pressured to offload sub-performing loans, we see strong opportunities in the $20–75 million loan range, mainly through deeper stretch senior structures. We remain optimistic about exiting pre-COVID investments and expanding strategies that capitalize on today’s pricing dislocation and policy-driven market shifts.” — Jeremy Stoler, Executive Vice President, Debt Capital Markets
“Market dislocation will drive meaningful opportunities for Peachtree, particularly as refinancing challenges and reduced liquidity sideline many market participants. Sectors like hospitality, multifamily and land remain attractive, especially where bridge and construction lending can solve capital stack gaps. With fewer players in the space and distress beginning to surface, we’re well positioned to deploy capital where others can’t or won’t.” — Jared Schlosser, Executive Vice President, Hotel Originations and Head of CPACE
“Commercial real estate is navigating a uniquely complex moment, shaped by macro pressures like tariffs, inflation and geopolitical fragmentation, and micro realities such as capital expenditure burdens, labor inflation and localized demand shifts. In hotels where reinvestment is non-negotiable and operating costs are rising, the ability to underwrite location, efficiency and adaptive revenue strategies is critical. Today’s dislocation lies in broken capital stacks with unfinished developments, over-leveraged deals, and liquidity-starved sponsors, which are offering compelling opportunities for well-positioned credit investors who can move with precision and discipline.” — Sameer Nair, Senior Vice President, Equity Asset Management
“Uncertainty is sidelining many investors, but that’s precisely where opportunity emerges. We see the most actionable dislocation in debt today, with equity and preferred equity likely to follow. Bridge lending remains compelling, but flexibility across the capital stack is key. While others pause, we’re leaning into select development, knowing today’s starts will be tomorrow’s top assets. Peachtree has grown the most during disruption, and we believe this next cycle will be no different.” — Brian Waldman, Chief Investment Officer
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