"Extend and Pretend"—Just as Hamlet famously questioned, "To be or not to be," we are also on the brink of a crucial revelation. Are we facing a seismic shift with sustained higher interest rates, a largely overlooked issue? How will this shift affect commercial real estate and other asset classes in both the short and long term? Are the public and private sectors ready for what appears to be the inevitable? Today, we face more questions than answers, and indecision is no longer viable in a higher interest rate environment.
Unlike in the past few downturns, such as COVID, the Global Financial Crisis and the dotcom bust, the Fed significantly reduced interest rates, enabling owners of commercial real estate and lenders to easily engage in "Extend and Pretend," even when cash flows were negative or razor-thin, thanks to the exceptionally low interest costs.
Today, we are in a commercial real estate recession showing no signs of abating. The economy boasts considerable strength, driven by a strong job market, and record liquidity is on the sidelines. I do not see the necessary catalysts to revert interest rates to levels seen in previous cycles. Therefore, I don't see “Extend and Pretend” to be an effective strategy and would prepare for more bankruptcies, foreclosures and forced sales as reality sets in that we are in a new rate paradigm or maybe just a return to normalcy that, unfortunately, will be destructive to values, especially to the lower cap rate assets. Ultimately, amidst any market disruption, there will be pivotal opportunities for those with the decisiveness and the liquidity to seize them at the right moment.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 1, 2024, in response to a Wall Street Journal article titled: Even If the Fed Cuts, the Days of ultralow Rates are Over.
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Schwab Network - "Commercial real estate continues to remain in chaos," says Greg Friedman. He believes fundamentals surrounding the industry remain solid but capital markets continue to raise outlook uncertainty. Greg uses the 10-year treasury as a benchmark for commercial real estate and talks about the other ways sentiment has shifted in the industry.
GlobeSt - In a challenging era for CRE finance, these men, women, teams and companies have demonstrated exceptional prowess in navigating choppy waters. They managed to steer through a period of elevated interest rates and successfully grappled with falling property valuations, a trend that has made refinancing particularly tricky for many in the sector. Moreover, they have shown an uncanny knack for operating within capital markets that have become increasingly stringent. Their innovative solutions and steadfast leadership have paved the way for new opportunities in what has been an unpredictable market.
Greg Friedman offers a wide perspective on the real estate market. He uses the 10-year treasury yield as a market indicator but notes inconsistencies in the latest trends compared to real estate. Greg believes there will be better buying opportunities on the horizon once real estate finds a bottom to build a new foundation. Listen to the full broadcast on Schwab Network.
