Market Uncertainty and Investment Opportunities: Insights from Jim Costello
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This week we have a special extended Market Update on the Peachtree Point of View podcast. CEO Greg Friedman and SVP Daniel Savage welcomed Jim Costello, Chief Economist and Head of Real Estate Economics at MSCI Real Assets, for a candid discussion about the current commercial real estate landscape. As stakeholders navigate through a period of significant economic uncertainty and policy shifts, Costello offered valuable insights for investors seeking to understand where opportunities might emerge in this volatile environment.
The conversation highlighted how recent economic turmoil has dramatically shifted market expectations. After many investors had been playing the "stay alive until 2025" game, holding on through interest rate shocks in hopes of eventual stabilization, recent policy shifts and uncertainty have "pulled the rug out from under" many market participants.
Key Takeaways for Investors:
The end of capital market tailwinds: For decades (1985-2020), falling interest rates provided commercial real estate investors with built-in advantages through cap rate compression. Costello warns this era is likely over, shifting the focus to operational expertise: "The number one thing is going to be managing your properties effectively moving forward."
Credit over equity may be the play: In this transitional market, debt investments are currently out performing equity positions on a risk-adjusted basis. Costello notes this creates opportunities for established private credit providers with proper infrastructure and experience over "debt tourists" entering the space opportunistically.
Focus on local fundamentals: Rather than making broad sector-based allocations, Costello suggests investing in markets with strong demographic trends and knowledge-economy foundations. "It's the local fundamentals that matter more. It's about being in a market that has healthy demographics or some other type of growth."
Opportunity in uncertainty: Despite potential recession risks, Costello remains optimistic about opportunities, particularly in distressed debt and turn around/special situations: "There's always money to be made in a down market... There's always opportunities for folks who can come in and clean up problems."
Corporate bond rates as early indicators: Investors should watch corporate bond rates as leading indicators for cap rate movements, with recent spreads widening by approximately 40-50 basis points, potentially foreshadowing similar increases in real estate cap rates.
This Market Update discussion sheds light on how investment strategies need to evolve in response to new economic reality. Commercial real estate is transitioning from an era of "financial engineering" to one focused on operational excellence and local market knowledge.
Want more insights to guide your investment decisions? Listen to the full episode of Peachtree Point of View podcast for Jim Costello's complete analysis on market trends, interest rate predictions and specific markets to watch. Follow Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed about commercial real estate opportunities in this rapidly changing landscape.
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Written By Greg Friedman | Featured on Fortune.com
Fortune | There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.
The outlook for the office sector has been particularly negative. It’s a tale of two markets right now: roughly 30% of office buildings account for 90% of the vacancies and may never recover, while the other 70% have the chance to stabilize over time. Either way, the office market finds itself at an inflection point, much like the retail market as mall acquisitions were being financed.
Bloomberg Radio |Greg Friedman discussed the fragile state of the commercial real estate market, with transaction volumes down 50% due to higher interest rates. Over the next 12 months, $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans will mature, offering opportunities for well-capitalized buyers. The conversation also highlighted the growing importance of private credit,which now makes up 10% of the commercial real estate ecosystem, providing stability. Additionally, there was a mention of the bifurcation in the office sector, with better-quality buildings showing recovery.
ATLANTA (September 2, 2025) - Peachtree Group ("Peachtree"), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, has been named to two prestigious growth rankings, underscoring the firm’s momentum as a leading force in commercial real estate investment.
Inc. revealed that Peachtree Group earned a place on the 2025 Inc. 5000 list of the fastest-growing private companies in the U.S., marking the third consecutive year the firm has been honored. The Inc. 5000 list provides a data-driven look at the most successful independent and entrepreneurial businesses across the nation.
In addition, the Atlanta Business Chronicle recognized Peachtree Group asan honoree in its 30th annual Pacesetter Awards, which celebrate the fastest-growing privately held companies based in metro Atlanta. Honorees were evaluated on revenue and employee growth from 2022 through 2024 and ranked using a growth index formula to ensure fair comparison across companies of varying sizes.
“We are in the business of identifying and capitalizing on mispriced risk, and in today’s environment of disruption and dislocation, that has created strong tailwinds for our growth,” said Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal and CEO. “These recognitions validate our ability to execute in complex markets, and we see significant opportunity ahead as we continue to scale our platform. We believe the next several years will be among the most compelling investment environments in recent history.”
Peachtree Group remains focused on delivering innovative investment strategies and strong results for its stakeholders while expanding its presence across the U.S.
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