Market Uncertainty and Investment Opportunities: Insights from Jim Costello
This week we have a special extended Market Update on the Peachtree Point of View podcast. CEO Greg Friedman and SVP Daniel Savage welcomed Jim Costello, Chief Economist and Head of Real Estate Economics at MSCI Real Assets, for a candid discussion about the current commercial real estate landscape. As stakeholders navigate through a period of significant economic uncertainty and policy shifts, Costello offered valuable insights for investors seeking to understand where opportunities might emerge in this volatile environment.
The conversation highlighted how recent economic turmoil has dramatically shifted market expectations. After many investors had been playing the "stay alive until 2025" game, holding on through interest rate shocks in hopes of eventual stabilization, recent policy shifts and uncertainty have "pulled the rug out from under" many market participants.
Key Takeaways for Investors:
- The end of capital market tailwinds: For decades (1985-2020), falling interest rates provided commercial real estate investors with built-in advantages through cap rate compression. Costello warns this era is likely over, shifting the focus to operational expertise: "The number one thing is going to be managing your properties effectively moving forward."
- Credit over equity may be the play: In this transitional market, debt investments are currently out performing equity positions on a risk-adjusted basis. Costello notes this creates opportunities for established private credit providers with proper infrastructure and experience over "debt tourists" entering the space opportunistically.
- Focus on local fundamentals: Rather than making broad sector-based allocations, Costello suggests investing in markets with strong demographic trends and knowledge-economy foundations. "It's the local fundamentals that matter more. It's about being in a market that has healthy demographics or some other type of growth."
- Opportunity in uncertainty: Despite potential recession risks, Costello remains optimistic about opportunities, particularly in distressed debt and turn around/special situations: "There's always money to be made in a down market... There's always opportunities for folks who can come in and clean up problems."
- Corporate bond rates as early indicators: Investors should watch corporate bond rates as leading indicators for cap rate movements, with recent spreads widening by approximately 40-50 basis points, potentially foreshadowing similar increases in real estate cap rates.
This Market Update discussion sheds light on how investment strategies need to evolve in response to new economic reality. Commercial real estate is transitioning from an era of "financial engineering" to one focused on operational excellence and local market knowledge.
Want more insights to guide your investment decisions? Listen to the full episode of Peachtree Point of View podcast for Jim Costello's complete analysis on market trends, interest rate predictions and specific markets to watch. Follow Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed about commercial real estate opportunities in this rapidly changing landscape.

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Institutional Real Estate – In an era where stubborn inflation keeps central bankers awake at night and rate volatility tests investor discipline, smart capital is quietly gravitating to assets that can flex, literally overnight. Hotels, with their daily lease resets, are one of the few real estate plays with a built-in inflation defense. But not all hotels are created equal. For investors looking to put capital to work today, premium-branded select-service and compact full-service hotels stand out as some of the most reliable performers across economic cycles, including inflationary periods.
Short Leases, Big Advantage
Unlike offices or retail, where lease terms can lock in rates for years, hotels are designed to be nimble. Operators adjust room rates daily, matching market demand and passing through cost increases with far less lag than other real estate types. During the inflationary surges of the 1970s and early 1980s, room rates in the United States climbed almost in lockstep with the Consumer Price Index. More recently, ADRs rose rapidly during the inflation spike of 2021–2023, especially in well-positioned premium brands. Yet flexibility alone is not enough. Demand elasticity still matters. Not every guest will pay more just because costs are higher. This is where premium select-service and compact full-service assets show their edge.
Why This Segment Holds Up
Hotels at the upper end of the select-service spectrum, including Marriott’s Courtyard and AC Hotels, Hilton’s Hampton Inn and Hilton Garden Inn, and IHG’s Hotel Indigo and Crowne Plaza, strike the balance travelers want: elevated comfort and amenities without full-service prices. They cater to travelers who want quality and consistency without paying for frills they do not use. Business travelers, sports teams and mid-tier corporate groups typically make up the core customer base. This gives owners both repeatability and rate integrity. Compact full-service properties, especially those under strong flags in good urban or suburban nodes, also shine here. They deliver enough amenities, such as an on-site restaurant, meeting space and a bar, to justify a healthy rate premium while keeping operating costs leaner than those of sprawling resorts or luxury assets.
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Peachtree Group Appoints Lindsay Monge as Executive Vice President, Asset Management
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ATLANTA (Oct. 15, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, today announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.
Monge brings more than two decades of leadership experience in hospitality, real estate investment and operations to Peachtree. Most recently, he served as president of Seaview Investors where he led asset management and daily operations for a portfolio of eight Marriott and Hilton-branded upscale hotels in California. Before this, he spent nearly 16 years at Sunstone Hotel Investors, rising to senior vice president, chief administrative officer, secretary and treasurer, where he oversaw corporate functions and played a pivotal role in managing a $3.9 billion asset base.
“Lindsay’s extensive background leading hotel operations and real estate investment platforms makes him an invaluable addition to our leadership team,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “His experience across public REITs, private equity and owner-operator platforms uniquely positions him to enhance value creation for our investors while strengthening our asset management capabilities.”
His career also includes senior leadership roles at Magna Flow as chief operating officer and at Alpha Wave Investors as chief administrative officer and partner where he directed strategic planning, growth initiatives and asset repositioning strategies. Earlier in his career, Monge held management positions at The Westgate Hotel and began his hospitality career in Hilton’s executive management program at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.
Monge earned an MBA in strategy and leadership from the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in hotel administration from Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration. He also completed executive education in the LEAD Business Program at Stanford Graduate School of Business.
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Fortune: Commercial real estate’s seismic transformation is creating new winners—and losers— in the property market
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Fortune | There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.
The outlook for the office sector has been particularly negative. It’s a tale of two markets right now: roughly 30% of office buildings account for 90% of the vacancies and may never recover, while the other 70% have the chance to stabilize over time. Either way, the office market finds itself at an inflection point, much like the retail market as mall acquisitions were being financed.




