Schwab Network: 'New Game' with High-Interest Rates
Greg Friedman discussed on the Schwab network how the high rate environment is reshaping valuations and refinancing, with 90% of office vacancies concentrated in just 30% of buildings.
Navigating the "Messy Middle": How Private Market Investors Can Thrive in Today's Dislocated Market
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The private markets landscape is experiencing unprecedented disruption, creating both challenges and opportunities for sophisticated investors. In a recent episode of Peachtree Point of View, Greg Friedman sat down with Brandon Sedloff, Chief Real Estate Officer at Juniper Square, to dissect the current state of alternative investments and reveal actionable strategies for navigating today's complex market environment.
The Great Private Markets Divide
The investment management industry is witnessing a dramatic polarization. As Sedloff explains, we're seeing a "barbell effect" where mega-managers with hundreds of billions in assets continue to grow alongside highly specialized niche players, while the "messy middle" becomes increasingly challenging territory.
This shift presents a critical decision point for investors: align with diversified mega-managers or partner with specialized firms that demonstrate deep expertise in specific market segments. As Sedloff puts it, "What the market needs, what the market wants is they need differentiation... people want groups that are specialists that have a niche that really deeply understand the markets that they're in."
For investors, this means reassessing current allocations and potentially reallocating capital from generalist managers to true specialists.
Emerging Opportunities in Market Dislocation
The prolonged market dislocation and deleveraging cycle has created unique opportunities for prepared investors. Three key trends are reshaping the landscape:
Liquidity-Focused Products: With traditional distributions slowing, investors are demanding more flexible investment structures. This has sparked innovation in semi-liquid and interval fund products that provide periodic liquidity without sacrificing private market returns.
Private Wealth Expansion: The rise of retail participation in private markets represents a massive capital allocation shift. Sophisticated GPs are expanding beyond traditional institutional channels into RIA networks, broker-dealers, and accredited individual investors.
Operational Excellence: Investment managers are leveraging AI and advanced technology to create "operational alpha" – generating additional value through superior data analytics, investor relations, and fund administration.
Three Key Takeaways for Investors
- Demand Differentiation: Don't accept generic investment strategies. Partner with managers who offer unique value propositions beyond standard metrics like track record or pipeline access. As Sedloff warns: "Let me tell you, it's not your proprietary pipeline. It's not the number of years of experience that your team has. It's not the track record that you brought with you from your other organization. So it must be something different." True differentiation comes from specialized expertise and operational advantages.
- Match Capital Sources to Uses: Ensure your investment vehicles align with your liquidity needs and investment timeline. Individual investors have fundamentally different requirements than institutions, and your investment approach should reflect these differences.
- Embrace Transparency: The future belongs to managers who provide enhanced reporting and real-time insights. Technology-forward firms that prioritize investor communication will outperform those clinging to outdated operational models.
Position Yourself for the Future
Today's market environment rewards investors who move decisively while others remain paralyzed by uncertainty. The firms thriving in this cycle are those with specialized expertise, superior operational infrastructure, and clear differentiation strategies.
Ready to dive deeper into these market insights and learn how industry leaders are navigating current challenges? Listen to the full conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast to discover additional strategies for maximizing returns in today's dislocated markets.
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Schwab Network – Greg Friedman joins Nicole Petallides at the NYSE site with a deep-dive into the high rate environment facing investors right now. When looking at the 10-year Treasury rate which is "more than double pre-2022 average," Greg believes its reshaping valuations and refinancing dynamics. In the real estate realm, he sees uneven performance saying "90% of office vacancies are in just 30% of office buildings."
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CNBC: Fed Rate Cuts: A Game-Changer for Commercial Real Estate Investors or a Head Fake?
Peachtree CEO Greg Friedman was on CNBC's Fast Money discussing the effect of the Fed's recent rate cuts on the Commercial Real Estate market.
The Federal Reserve's 50 basis points cut to the Fed funds rate in September has sparked fresh conversations about its impact on commercial real estate (CRE) investments. While there's optimism in some corners about a return to a lower rate environment, the bond market signals a different story, with long-term rates remaining high and inflation risks persisting. This is a good reminder that short-term rates, set by the Fed, and long-term rates, like the 10-yearTreasury, often move independently.
Today's higher rate environment reshapes the value fundamentals of CRE. The current 10-yearTreasury rate of around 4%—double the pre-2022 average—demands that CRE values recalibrate. Reports of a 20% drop in CRE values since 2022 peak levels require context; those valuations were rooted in a vastly different interest rate environment. Today’s scenario implies a slower growth trajectory, requiring investors to adapt to a "new game" of higher rates for longer.
Across CRE assets, different sectors respond to higher rates in distinct ways. Hotels, for example, benefit from solid demand as travel returns, while multifamily assets continue to show resilience despite refinancing pressures. Office assets, however, face significant stress due to both secular and rate-driven challenges.
Even as the Fed cuts rates, refinancing on previously low-rate debt presents ongoing challenges for CRE assets, especially those with upcoming maturity dates. Higher rates elevate the cost of debt and squeeze cash flows while impacting the overall asset valuations, placing additional stress.
Despite headwinds, the current environment offers unique opportunities to strategic, agile investors. While higher rates may drive down asset values, for those prepared to navigate today's market with moderate leverage and a forward-looking strategy, today's challenges can evolve into future tailwinds. As the Fed's recent moves signal a "higher for longer" era, CRE investors who adapt swiftly may find unprecedented opportunities, making this a prime moment for decisive action in commercial real estate.
See Peachtree Group’s CEO and Managing Principal, Greg Friedman discuss this topic on CNBC’s Fast Money.
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Avoid Political Noise When Investing: A Market Update with Larry Adam, Raymond James
Peachtree Group hosted Larry Adam the Chief Investment Officer of Raymond James for a recent Market Call. Larry talked about the importance of staying invested throughout political cycles like the upcoming US Presidential election.
In our recent market update call, we hear insights from Larry Adam the Chief Investment Officer of Raymond James, alongside Greg Friedman, Managing Principal & CEO of Peachtree Group and Daniel Savage, VP Equity Capital Markets of Peachtree Group. One of the standout moments from the discussion was an intriguing investment takeaway that highlights the importance of consistent investing over trying to time the market based on political cycles.
Investment Insights Through the Decades
Consider this: if you had invested $10,000 in the stock market starting in 1970 and only remained invested during Republican presidencies, your investment would have grown to approximately $133,000 by now. Conversely, if you had only stayed invested during Democratic presidencies, your portfolio would have soared to around $700,000.
Now, here’s where the numbers become even more compelling. If you had stayed fully invested in the market, regardless of which party was in power, that initial $10,000 would have appreciated to an impressive $1.6 million!
The Lesson: Stay the Course
Timing the market based on political affiliation has proven to be less effective than maintaining a consistent investment strategy. As Larry Adam pointed out, “It's more important to be in the market than trying to find the market. I think that's a critical lesson…”
The volatility that comes with political changes can tempt investors to pull back or make hasty decisions. However, history shows that those who remain patient and invested through all market conditions tend to reap the greatest rewards.
The key is to be in the market, not trying to outsmart it.
About Larry Adam
Larry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as Chief Investment Officer. With over thirty years of experience in the financial markets, Mr. Adam brings a wealth of knowledge and valuable insights on the markets and economy to advisors and clients. As CIO, Mr. Adam develops the firm’s CIO view, a cohesive and comprehensive macro outlook, using insights and perspectives from the firm’s strategists. Mr. Adam presents at numerous client events and is renowned for his ability to explain complex concepts to investors.
Mr. Adam provides advisors and clients with in-depth guidance regarding the markets, including weekly and monthly commentary and quarterly outlooks. In addition to serving as President of the Investment Strategy Committee, he also sits on the Global Wealth Solutions (GWS) Diversity & Inclusion Campus Recruitment Committee, the GWS Executive Council, and the Alternative and Structured Investments Product Approval Committee.
Prior to joining Raymond James, Mr. Adam held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and Global Chief Investment Strategist for Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. He received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master’s degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. Mr. Adam is an adjunct professor at the Sellinger School of Business and Management at Loyola University, teaching classes in International Finance. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management® certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Mr. Adam is regularly featured on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s.