The CPI report earlier this week showed a decrease in U.S. inflation pressures for the first time this year, following a higher-than-anticipated PPI. This might suggest the Fed's sustained efforts to mitigate consumer price pressures are beginning to show results. However, we are still far from reaching 2%, but maybe the Fed is seeing that inflation is finally on a downward trajectory. In my opinion, the Fed will need further data to gather the confidence required for contemplating interest rate cuts.
Today's prolonged high interest rates are dampening activity and risking recession. For the commercial real estate industry, time is of the essence, as we are already in a recession, and I am dimming on the prospect of a rate cut this year.
This persistent inflation significantly challenges the commercial real estate sector, especially with trillions of dollars of debt maturing. Elevated inflation has increased borrowing costs, strained cash flows and impacted property valuations.
Property owners face refinancing at significantly higher rates as debt matures, leading to increased debt service costs and reduced profitability. This strain on cash flows, coupled with higher expenses and lower income, creates a vicious cycle. Property valuations decline as borrowing costs rise, and investors demand higher returns, softening the market. This downward spiral tightens financial constraints, risking defaults and market instability, a situation that requires immediate attention.
Can the Fed get us out of this spiral before a larger meltdown without triggering new economic challenges?
The path forward will likely require a mix of monetary policy adjustments based on economic data and perhaps more targeted fiscal interventions to support vulnerable sectors.
No matter where the market leads, I'm enthusiastic about the opportunities that lie ahead, and our team is fully prepared to tackle the challenges.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 19, 2024, in response to a Globestreet article titled: Watch for These Signs of Recession as the Fed Keeps Rates Elevated.
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ATLANTA (May 5, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) is proud to announce that Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO, has been recognized among the 2025 Rainmakers in CRE Debt, Equity & Finance by GlobeSt.,and named to Commercial Observer’s prestigious Power Finance list. These industry-leading accolades highlight Friedman's exceptional leadership, strategic innovation and enduring impact on the commercial real estate finance landscape.
Inclusion on the GlobeSt. Rainmakers list acknowledges Friedman's ability to navigate one of the most challenging commercial real estate finance periods. Amid elevated interest rates, tightening capital markets and declining valuations, Friedman has led Peachtree's vertically integrated management platforms with clarity and conviction. His approach has helped stakeholders unlock value, access liquidity and capitalize on market dislocation.
Commercial Observer’s Power Finance list further affirms Friedman’s influence and adaptability. As lenders retracted and transaction volume slowed, Peachtree continued to deliver creative capital solutions from originating loans to establishing strategic partnerships and playing across the capital stack. Under Friedman’s leadership, Peachtree has remained a dependable partner known for its certainty of execution, critical expertise and a solutions-driven mindset.
“These recognitions are a testament to Greg’s vision and our entire team’s commitment to being a steady force in an unpredictable market,” said Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO of Peachtree. “Our strategy has always centered on disciplined investing, innovation and building strong relationships. Greg has set the tone.”
Peachtree’s success is powered by a high-performing, deeply experienced team that brings together the full spectrum of credit, equity, development and asset management expertise. This collective strength allows the firm to respond decisively to market shifts, underwrite with conviction and deliver solutions others can’t.
Peachtree has executed over $12 billion in commercial real estate transactions since inception. Its integrated platform aligns real estate, credit and capital markets expertise, positioning the firm to identify opportunities, deploy capital efficiently and manage risk across cycles.
"It was a highly competitive year for lenders on our list, and we gave props to those who kept the market ticking over with their multiple irons in the fire and several different ways to finance borrowers irrespective of market conditions. Whether they were offering a suite of products, playing up and down capital stacks, buying loan pools or securities, or launching new partnerships, our top lenders are those that offered continuity, reliability, certainty of execution, critical expertise and a wee bit of scrappiness.” — Commercial Observer
Schwab Network - "Commercial real estate continues to remain in chaos," says Greg Friedman. He believes fundamentals surrounding the industry remain solid but capital markets continue to raise outlook uncertainty. Greg uses the 10-year treasury as a benchmark for commercial real estate and talks about the other ways sentiment has shifted in the industry.
