丹尼斯·洛克哈特的市场见解:美国经济展望、美联储政务策划和商业房地产趋势趋势
桃树集合首席执行官格雷格·弗里德曼和首席财务官贾廷·德赛在桃树集成的团队首席执行官员 jaTins·deasi 的投资者日期间接待亚特兰大联储备银行储备银行前任主席丹尼斯·洛克哈特炉进行边谈话。洛克哈特就美国经济前景、美联储政策、地缘政治风险和商业房地产趋势发表了讲话。
以下是他们讨论的关键要点。

经济摘要:
- 美国经济表现良好,稳步增长。第一季度度化国内生产总值增幅约为1.3-1.4%,但基本指标表现更强劲,亚特兰大联储预计2024年第二季度化国内生产总值增长3.1%。
- 失业率低至4%,最近增加了27.2万个工作岗位。私营部门,尤其是保健,正在推行就业业务,带动来更可持续 “就业” 并支持消费者支出。
- 强势的就业业务确认了消费者的收入稳定,推出了占国内生产总值约70%的持续消防费。
- 通货膨胀率已从值下降,但高于美联储的目标。美联储更喜欢的个人消费支出(PCE)指标数值而非消费者物价指数(CPI),目前的核心个人消费支出的通货膨胀率为2.7-2.8%,偏高于2%。尽管由于美联储的坚定承诺和公众对这一目标的信任,将目标通货膨胀率从 2% 调整后的可能性看似极小,但在规定的范围内,采取更灵活、更灵活的方针是可能的。这使得美联储能在不正式改变变量目标标记的情况下方,以应对通货膨胀,利用 “当前的经济实力” 保持耐心,让通货膨胀膨胀。
联邦公开市场委员会的观点:
- 联邦公开发行市场委员会(FOMC)致命于在不受欢迎的政治影响下就利率和货币政权策划做出决定的情况。在参加会议的十年中,丹尼斯很少看到了政治的出局。但是,按照传统,联邦公投市场委员会避免在美国全国大选之前的会议上采取行动,以防出现任何政治偏见。在杰伊·鲍威尔的领导下,如有必要,联邦公开市场委员会将在9月采取行动,但目前的情况可能等于大选之后才会迫使人们采取行动。
- 尽管从长远来看,当选选人实习的不同政权策划可能被塑造出来救济,但预计选中本人不会产生生立场参见影片的影响。但的确,如果大选之后的环境导弹致使大干一场,则有可能让美联储在11月的会议上暂时停止。
- 如果通货膨胀没有改善,或者反通货膨胀停火在2.7-2.8%左右,那么美联储可能需要进一步加息。相反,持续的积极反馈通货膨胀数据可能导致年底前降低利息。有几种场景需要考虑一下:
- 粘性通货膨胀: 如果通货膨胀率居高不下,美联储可能在年底或2025年初加利息。
- 反通重生复苏: 积极极端的反通货膨胀数据可以导致 11 月或 12 月的降低利息。
- 经济放行: 如果经济不景气,企业预测经济退后,导致 “员工” 和 “消费者” 支出,那么美联储可能会降低消息以稳定局势。
- 金融不稳定: Soft对于去年的谷歌银行行事故的金融稳定事件可能会促使美联储降低利息,以解决潜水中的银行系统问题,尤其是商业房地产问题。
- 联邦公开市场委员会的说法是,经济正在逐渐放开。尽管业绩形态正在再平衡中,不像 2022 年和 2023 年那样强,但就业前景非常乐观和强烈。通货膨胀率然很高,但联邦公开市场委员会认为反弹通货膨胀将恢复恢复,这使得他们能够在年底之前开始政权放松策划限制。但是,这些都取消了data的产生方程式以及未来几个月的形式所描绘的整体的经济前景。即将举行的美联储议定于7月、9月、11月和12月的行列。决心谨慎,重点是等待 tondigradaData 的明示确认 Trends 趋势,然后再做一步的改进变量。
地缘政治风险保险:
- 地缘政治事故可能对金融市场产生影响,并可能改变美国的经济前景,至少是暂时的。这些事故往来无疑是意思,可能,会乱股市并影响经济。但是,美联储往返地缘政治视而不见。尽管与国务院的关系密切,但美联储的工作人员,主要是博士学家,主要关注国内问题,很少有就业地缘政治问题与专家协商。考虑这种国内关系注意力,尽管地缘政治事故严重可能会影响到他们,但美联储的政局决策或经济预测并未在内部发挥其重要作用。
货币政策:
- 资产负债表是货币政务策划的核心工具。在大条和疫苗情绪期间,当利率降至零时,美联储使用量化宽松(QE)通过增大银行储备来刺激激次数,这支持贷款并增加金融市场的流动性。这张导演了美联储资产负债表的大幅扩散。
- 目前,美联储正在缓慢缩减资产负债表,以回应经济刺激措施。这一过程称称被量化紧缩,在找到新的平衡点,在不乱信贷款市场的下方提供充足的银行储备和流动性。美联储蓄对待这个问题,以避免金融不稳定,例如在前任的紧张局面中,他们尝试了中发生的事件。这种资产负债表调整是货币政权策划的一个关键但往来是幕后方面。
财政政务政策:
- 财政政权政策,尤金是赤字支出,提振需要求并助长通货膨胀。在疫苗情绪期间,重大的刺激支持了家庭和企业,但也增加了通货膨胀的压力。但的确,通货膨胀是一个全球性问题,不仅仅是由国内财政政权的政权策划所创造的。
- 美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔承认高债平价的财政状况不佳,但没有批评国会。美联储将财政政权策划视角为众多经济影响因素之一,认识到其在支持增量方方面面,这可能与美联储的通货膨胀控制器发生冲突。
- 美国财政部部长的债券发行略略影响债券证券市场和持有这些证券交易所的银行。财政政权和货币政权策划往来互助的压力,但美联储将影响其经济评估和决心策划中的这些压力。
业:
- 银行,尤其是区域和社区银行,对商业房地产的口很大,约占市场的40%。尽管国家银行的风险比较小,但房地产市场的迷人低影响力遍及所有银行,由于高利用率,办公空房等房产的价值重下,多户住宅物业的价值下降了将近30%。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔对银行系统的稳定性做出了保证,但人们将实时面对危机的担保。历史先例表明,危急地在顺利进行之后的往事会被忽视。
- 即将到期的约8,500亿美元商业房地产贷款存入风险保险。风险分散在不同的金融实务中,这在一定程度上令人放心。但是,小型和区域银行行尤其弱。与社区的银行倒流闭合的可控性不一样,一家大型的地区银行因房地产的口而倒退,闭合可能性会产生严重的经济影片。
- 银行目前正在通过延期长期贷款期限管理局局势,这实际上是个人稳定财政争夺时间。尽量管这个方法可以缓解眼前的问题,但也降低了银行的贷款偏好。信贷可利用性的大幅减小,特别是在于依赖赖小型银行的小企业而言,可能,会引擎发起退去。这种动态显然是管理现实有问题与看见的信贷流以支持经济活动之中的微妙平衡。
商业地产:
- 商业地产,尤其是酒店业者的短期和长期估计值将取消市场基本面。由于远程办公的兴起,办公部门面cins重大战,这可能会减少对办公空的长期需求。各公司都在制定办公政策,有某些公司采用 “混合模式” 模式。
- 零售业受在线购物的影响,酒店业务正在从疫苗情绪中复苏过来,但尚未完全反映。除非不是建筑过去,否则酒店业务预计不会出现重大的问题。
- 疫苗情绪前办公空房已饱和,区域办公室现在很难找到租户。许多办公室未得以充值利用,某些企业可以保持远程状态。由于技术限制,将办公楼改建为公寓通常不可行。
- 多户住宅住宿行业继续表现出强劲的需求需求,而且是商业房地产的稳定领域。
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ATLANTA (Oct. 15, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, today announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.
Monge brings more than two decades of leadership experience in hospitality, real estate investment and operations to Peachtree. Most recently, he served as president of Seaview Investors where he led asset management and daily operations for a portfolio of eight Marriott and Hilton-branded upscale hotels in California. Before this, he spent nearly 16 years at Sunstone Hotel Investors, rising to senior vice president, chief administrative officer, secretary and treasurer, where he oversaw corporate functions and played a pivotal role in managing a $3.9 billion asset base.
“Lindsay’s extensive background leading hotel operations and real estate investment platforms makes him an invaluable addition to our leadership team,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “His experience across public REITs, private equity and owner-operator platforms uniquely positions him to enhance value creation for our investors while strengthening our asset management capabilities.”
His career also includes senior leadership roles at Magna Flow as chief operating officer and at Alpha Wave Investors as chief administrative officer and partner where he directed strategic planning, growth initiatives and asset repositioning strategies. Earlier in his career, Monge held management positions at The Westgate Hotel and began his hospitality career in Hilton’s executive management program at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.
Monge earned an MBA in strategy and leadership from the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in hotel administration from Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration. He also completed executive education in the LEAD Business Program at Stanford Graduate School of Business.
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Peachtree Group to Launch Equipment Finance Division, Expanding Credit Capabilities Across Key Sectors

ATLANTA (Oct. 13, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) announced today the launch of a new equipment finance division, further broadening its credit platform and reinforcing its ability to provide flexible equipment lease financing across industries, including commercial real estate and hospitality.
The division will be led by seasoned executives Brian Shaughnessy and Roger Johnson, who together bring more than 60 years of experience in equipment finance, specialty finance and portfolio acquisitions. They will be joined by experienced industry executive Dennis Shields, further strengthening the team’s depth and expertise. Shields spent the last 15 years with Meridian Leasing, helping to grow its profitable leasing business.
“This launch is more than the start of a new business line. It continues relationships that span more than 15 years,” said Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal and CEO. “We have known and worked alongside Brian and Roger for well over a decade, watching them build reputations as trusted leaders in equipment finance. Their arrival marks both a reunion and a natural extension of our long-standing ties.”
This new platform represents a progression of Peachtree’s established private credit ecosystem. Many of the firm’s commercial real estate clients also require equipment financing, particularly in hospitality, where Furniture, Fixtures,and Equipment (FF&E) play a critical role in new developments. By building on the firm’s long-standing history and applying proven expertise from its principals’ experience financing essential use equipment, Peachtree is positioned to deliver tailored financing solutions that address client needs across multiple sectors and industries.
The launch highlights Peachtree’s ability to adapt its platform to fill gaps left by traditional lenders while keeping long-term client relationships at the center of its strategy.
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“Large banks continue to pull back from serving small and mid-sized businesses, leaving a significant void in the market,” Friedman said. “Our new platform allows us to step in with creative financing solutions, whether that means helping medical facilities upgrade technology or supporting hotels with FF&E for new developments, so businesses can access the capital they need to grow.”
Shaughnessy, who joins as president and principal of the equipment finance division, is a senior executive with more than 35 years of experience in financial services and investment banking. He was most recently co-founder and CEO of IMT Commercial, an alternative portfolio and asset acquisition and management firm.
Johnson, who will serve as executive vice president and principal, is a 30-year portfolio acquisitions and commercial lending veteran. He has a proven track record of developing profitable relationships with C-suite decision-makers at a wide range of financial institutions. Both Shaughnessy and Johnson founded and grew IMT Commercial Credit into a top 120 equipment finance business.
The new unit will initially focus on financing lease transactions ranging from $500,000 to $10 million with terms generally between 24 and 84 months. By leveraging Peachtree’s established credit expertise, infrastructure and balance sheet strength, the division aims to deliver competitive financing options while ensuring timely funding and long-term client relationships.
“Equipment finance requires a deep understanding of the assets, from valuation to structuring and exit strategies,” said Shaughnessy. “Our team brings decades of specialized knowledge that allows us to evaluate risk effectively and deliver certainty of execution for clients.”
Johnson added,“Leasing involves extensive coordination with clients, vendors and lenders, and our goal is to make the process seamless. Clients can count on us not only to secure financing but also to manage the details that keep projects moving forward.”
“Equipment finance is a relationship-driven business where execution matters,” Shields, senior vice president, said. “Our goal is to combine decades of industry expertise with Peachtree’s deep credit platform to offer reliable, creative solutions to clients who are often underserved in today’s lending environment.”
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Fortune: Commercial real estate’s seismic transformation is creating new winners—and losers— in the property market
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Fortune | There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.
The outlook for the office sector has been particularly negative. It’s a tale of two markets right now: roughly 30% of office buildings account for 90% of the vacancies and may never recover, while the other 70% have the chance to stabilize over time. Either way, the office market finds itself at an inflection point, much like the retail market as mall acquisitions were being financed.