Antes de 2022, los prestatarios disfrutaron durante más de una década de la oportunidad de obtener préstamos a tasas de interés cercanas a cero, una ventaja que impulsó el crecimiento y la expansión del mercado inmobiliario comercial. En la actualidad, vemos un volumen sin precedentes de préstamos que vencen en un entorno de tasas de interés mucho más altas, y los bancos reducen su exposición a los bienes inmuebles comerciales. A pesar de estas condiciones, la demanda de préstamos sigue creciendo.
Históricamente, un repunte de la demanda de préstamos durante el aumento de las tasas de interés sería una señal de advertencia de una inminente crisis crediticia. Sin embargo, desafiando las expectativas, los datos recientes sugieren una desviación con respecto a este patrón, ya que los bancos informan de un aumento de la actividad crediticia a pesar de mantener normas crediticias onerosas. Esta anomalía, combinada con una inflación moderada, desafía los indicadores tradicionales de recesión. Si bien algunos analistas sugieren con cautela que «esta vez es diferente», persisten las incertidumbres económicas, lo que plantea una interesante pregunta sobre la dinámica subyacente del mercado.
Si bien persisten las incertidumbres, una cosa queda clara: el sector inmobiliario comercial se enfrenta a una coyuntura crucial. Estamos navegando con atención por un panorama en evolución, equilibrando el riesgo y las oportunidades en un mercado moldeado por fuerzas sin precedentes.
Este comentario apareció originalmente en Página de LinkedIn de Greg Friedman el 16 de mayo de 2024, en respuesta a una revista Inc artículo de Phil Rosen titulado: Falta una bandera roja de recesión crítica.
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Institutional Real Estate – In an era where stubborn inflation keeps central bankers awake at night and rate volatility tests investor discipline, smart capital is quietly gravitating to assets that can flex, literally overnight. Hotels, with their daily lease resets, are one of the few real estate plays with a built-in inflation defense. But not all hotels are created equal. For investors looking to put capital to work today, premium-branded select-service and compact full-service hotels stand out as some of the most reliable performers across economic cycles, including inflationary periods.
Short Leases, Big Advantage
Unlike offices or retail, where lease terms can lock in rates for years, hotels are designed to be nimble. Operators adjust room rates daily, matching market demand and passing through cost increases with far less lag than other real estate types. During the inflationary surges of the 1970s and early 1980s, room rates in the United States climbed almost in lockstep with the Consumer Price Index. More recently, ADRs rose rapidly during the inflation spike of 2021–2023, especially in well-positioned premium brands. Yet flexibility alone is not enough. Demand elasticity still matters. Not every guest will pay more just because costs are higher. This is where premium select-service and compact full-service assets show their edge.
Why This Segment Holds Up
Hotels at the upper end of the select-service spectrum, including Marriott’s Courtyard and AC Hotels, Hilton’s Hampton Inn and Hilton Garden Inn, and IHG’s Hotel Indigo and Crowne Plaza, strike the balance travelers want: elevated comfort and amenities without full-service prices. They cater to travelers who want quality and consistency without paying for frills they do not use. Business travelers, sports teams and mid-tier corporate groups typically make up the core customer base. This gives owners both repeatability and rate integrity. Compact full-service properties, especially those under strong flags in good urban or suburban nodes, also shine here. They deliver enough amenities, such as an on-site restaurant, meeting space and a bar, to justify a healthy rate premium while keeping operating costs leaner than those of sprawling resorts or luxury assets.
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ATLANTA (Oct. 15, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, today announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.
Monge brings more than two decades of leadership experience in hospitality, real estate investment and operations to Peachtree. Most recently, he served as president of Seaview Investors where he led asset management and daily operations for a portfolio of eight Marriott and Hilton-branded upscale hotels in California. Before this, he spent nearly 16 years at Sunstone Hotel Investors, rising to senior vice president, chief administrative officer, secretary and treasurer, where he oversaw corporate functions and played a pivotal role in managing a $3.9 billion asset base.
“Lindsay’s extensive background leading hotel operations and real estate investment platforms makes him an invaluable addition to our leadership team,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “His experience across public REITs, private equity and owner-operator platforms uniquely positions him to enhance value creation for our investors while strengthening our asset management capabilities.”
His career also includes senior leadership roles at Magna Flow as chief operating officer and at Alpha Wave Investors as chief administrative officer and partner where he directed strategic planning, growth initiatives and asset repositioning strategies. Earlier in his career, Monge held management positions at The Westgate Hotel and began his hospitality career in Hilton’s executive management program at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.
Monge earned an MBA in strategy and leadership from the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in hotel administration from Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration. He also completed executive education in the LEAD Business Program at Stanford Graduate School of Business.
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Fortune | There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.
The outlook for the office sector has been particularly negative. It’s a tale of two markets right now: roughly 30% of office buildings account for 90% of the vacancies and may never recover, while the other 70% have the chance to stabilize over time. Either way, the office market finds itself at an inflection point, much like the retail market as mall acquisitions were being financed.
