Las hipotecas hipotecarias «gravemente sumergidas» aumentan en los EE. UU.
El director ejecutivo de Peachtree, Greg Friedman, comenta un artículo reciente de Alexandre Tanzi para Bloomberg sobre el estado del mercado multifamiliar en los EE. UU.
Lessons Learned: Insights from Peachtree Group Senior Leaders
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Peachtree's track record in commercial real estate is impressive. Our team has thrived through three significant economic disruptions. Our senior leaders have been instrumental in that success. Recently we asked those leaders to reflect on their lessons learned and share how that experience has shaped their thought process moving forward.
Here are a few of those insights.
Lessons Learned with Peachtree Leaders Managing Principles
"Building a formidable team is crucial for realizing your vision. Select individuals based on their exceptional skills and expertise and then trust them to excel in their roles. Empowering your team unlocks their full potential, driving extraordinary results and propelling your organization to new heights."
Greg Friedman and Jatin Desai – Managing Principals
“Foresight is critical in the investment process, requiring continuous consideration of macroeconomic conditions alongside local economic factors. This dual analysis enables us to identify nuanced opportunities and manage risks more effectively. By integrating global and regional insights, we can make more informed and strategic decisions, enhancing the potential for the investment's long-term success."
Greg Friedman, Managing Principal and CEO
“Ensure sufficient liquidity to maintain resilience. We have implemented and consistently maintained this approach for our Funds. While it may impact internal rates of return (IRR), it will allow us to endure market volatility and retain assets. Asset values typically rebound if adequate capital is available to weather downturns.”
Jatin Desai, Managing Principal and CFO
Lessons Learned with Peachtree Leaders
“Navigating through development always entails its share of challenges and victories, a reality underscored especially during Covid. While previous downturns primarily revolved around financial aspects, the pandemic introduced disruptions in cost, labor, and material supply chains. Reaching a semblance of normalcy took nearly three years, during which we remained steadfast in risk mitigation across these fronts. Adaptations in processes, timing, procurement strategies, and collaborations with skilled contractors were pivotal in this regard. Despite each disruption, we observed a consistent upward trend in average daily rates, particularly for newer or like-new assets.”
Mitul Patel, Principal
“Anticipate various exit scenarios: While one of our investments succeeded with the SBA refinance strategy, another encountered challenges. Legal issues with the borrower disqualified them from SBA eligibility, leading to loan refinance challenges. In hindsight, we were too dependent on a single exit source and now underwrite deals to ensure there are several (refinance, sale, loan sale) exit options available.”
Michael Harper, President, Hotel Lending
“Constant exposure to various transactions across different levels has enabled us to recognize patterns and anticipate issues during negotiations. This depth of experience has honed our ability to streamline the process, focusing on the crucial issues and avoiding unnecessary distractions. Ultimately, efficiency is paramount.”
Kevin Cadin, General Counsel
“The priority lies in cultivating a pipeline rather than managing individual transactions. The true value lies in the pipeline itself, not the deals outlined in term sheets. This approach grants the freedom to negotiate without the pressure of immediate results. Consequently, I rarely push terms or additional proceeds because I know the depth of additional opportunities and have confidence in the channels that have been developed to continue generating opportunities.”
Daniel Siegel, Principal and President, CRE
“The90% rule. It is often better to make a decision with 90% of the information or90% of what you would ideally like an output to be. That last 10% which is for perfection often leads to analysis paralysis and the opportunity cost of waiting is often greater than the value achieved in getting the last 10%. There is no such thing as perfect.”
Brian Waldman, Chief Investment Officer
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Parece que el mercado inmobiliario se encuentra actualmente en una mejor posición en comparación con las recesiones económicas anteriores, como la de 2009. En aquel entonces, el 26% de las propiedades residenciales hipotecadas tenían un capital negativo, mientras que ahora solo es alrededor del 2,7%. Si bien los sectores que dependen de la deuda, como el sector inmobiliario comercial, se enfrentan al desafío de recalibrarse para lograr tasas de interés más altas, es poco probable que vayamos hacia una recesión económica importante sin un retroceso significativo en el mercado inmobiliario.
La estabilidad del sector inmobiliario puede ayudar a amortiguar las recesiones económicas, ya que afecta directamente a la riqueza y la confianza de los consumidores, lo que a su vez influye en el gasto, un factor importante si se tiene en cuenta que los gastos de los consumidores representan alrededor del 70% del PIB de EE. UU. Esta estabilidad aumenta la probabilidad de un crecimiento económico sostenido, en lugar de caer en una recesión.
Este comentario apareció originalmente en Página de LinkedIn de Greg Friedman el 15 de mayo de 2024, en respuesta a un artículo de Bloomberg de Alexandre Tanzi titulado: «En serio, las hipotecas hipotecarias submarinas aumentan en los EE. UU.
Seguir Greg Friedman y Grupo Peachtree en LinkedIn.
Obtenga más información sobre División de crédito de Peachtree Group.
Falta una bandera roja de recesión crítica
El director ejecutivo de Peachtree, Greg Friedman, comenta un artículo reciente de Phil Rosen para la revista Inc. Magazine que examina la demanda de préstamos a pesar de las altas tasas de interés.
Antes de 2022, los prestatarios disfrutaron durante más de una década de la oportunidad de obtener préstamos a tasas de interés cercanas a cero, una ventaja que impulsó el crecimiento y la expansión del mercado inmobiliario comercial. En la actualidad, vemos un volumen sin precedentes de préstamos que vencen en un entorno de tasas de interés mucho más altas, y los bancos reducen su exposición a los bienes inmuebles comerciales. A pesar de estas condiciones, la demanda de préstamos sigue creciendo.
Históricamente, un repunte de la demanda de préstamos durante el aumento de las tasas de interés sería una señal de advertencia de una inminente crisis crediticia. Sin embargo, desafiando las expectativas, los datos recientes sugieren una desviación con respecto a este patrón, ya que los bancos informan de un aumento de la actividad crediticia a pesar de mantener normas crediticias onerosas. Esta anomalía, combinada con una inflación moderada, desafía los indicadores tradicionales de recesión. Si bien algunos analistas sugieren con cautela que «esta vez es diferente», persisten las incertidumbres económicas, lo que plantea una interesante pregunta sobre la dinámica subyacente del mercado.
Si bien persisten las incertidumbres, una cosa queda clara: el sector inmobiliario comercial se enfrenta a una coyuntura crucial. Estamos navegando con atención por un panorama en evolución, equilibrando el riesgo y las oportunidades en un mercado moldeado por fuerzas sin precedentes.
Este comentario apareció originalmente en Página de LinkedIn de Greg Friedman el 16 de mayo de 2024, en respuesta a una revista Inc artículo de Phil Rosen titulado: Falta una bandera roja de recesión crítica.
Seguir Greg Friedman y Grupo Peachtree en LinkedIn.
Obtenga más información sobre División de crédito de Peachtree Group.
Peachtree Group Awarded Developer of the Year by Hilton
Peachtree Group has been recognized by Hilton as the 2023 Developer of the Year in the Focused Service category. The Hilton Americas Development Awards recognize the achievements of owners, development partners and hotel teams in the Americas across several categories.
ATLANTA, GA April 24, 2024 - Peachtree Group today announced that it has been recognized by Hilton as the 2023 Developer of the Year in the Focused Service category. The Hilton Americas Development Awards recognize the achievements of owners, development partners and hotel teams in the Americas across several categories.
“We are immensely honored to have been named Developer of the Year by Hilton, a distinction that underscores our desire to build outstanding hotels,” said Mitul Patel, principal, Peachtree Group. “This recognition highlights our unwavering commitment to creating exceptional hotels and further strengthens our partnership with Hilton. This award is a testament to our strategic approach to hotel development, which combines identifying great locations, assembling a top-tier team and maintaining a steadfast focus on quality.”
In 2022, Peachtree Group received the Multi-Brand Developer of the Year from Hilton.
These annual awards celebrate the resiliency and commitment of Hilton’s owners and team members who spread the light and warmth of hospitality. For more information about Hilton, visit the company’s newsroom at stories.hilton.com.
About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.
Contact:
Charles Talbert
678-823-7683
ctalbert@peachtreegroup.com