Market Uncertainty and Investment Opportunities: Insights from Jim Costello
MSCI economist Jim Costello discusses CRE's transition from financial engineering to operational excellence on the latest Peachtree Point of View podcast.
Dislocated Markets Amidst Trump 2.0 Economic Risks
Listen to Our Podcast!
In a timely and insightful conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast, host Greg Friedman sits down with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, to discuss the current economic landscape and what investors should be watching.
Recession Risks on the Rise
Zandi doesn't mince words about the current economic situation. He notes that the probability of recession has jumped from 15% to 35% in recent months, primarily due to policy decisions – especially the escalating global trade war. While he believes the economy remains"fundamentally sound," Zandi warns that continued policy uncertainty could tip the scales toward recession within weeks.
"If he continues down this path for another couple, three, four weeks, recession will be more likely than not," Zandi cautions about the administration's trade policies.
Interest Rates and Commercial Real Estate
For commercial real estate investors, Zandi offers a sobering perspective on interest rates. Despite the administration's desire for lower rates, he believes the 10-year Treasury yield (around 4.1%) is appropriately priced for a well-functioning economy. Unless we enter a recession, Zandi doesn't foresee significant rate decreases in the near term.
Commercial real estate, which Zandi acknowledges has"been in a recession the last three years," faces continued challenges. While he believes much of the valuation adjustment is complete, a broader economic recession would mean "another leg down in valuations and pricing."
Key Indicators to Watch
For investors trying to gauge recession risks, Zandi offers practical metrics to monitor:
- Weekly initial unemployment claims: Safe at 225,000, concerning above 250,000, and recessionary at 300,000
- Consumer spending patterns, which have "flatlined" since November
- Housing market metrics, particularly new construction activity
Private Credit Markets
On private credit markets, Zandi noted that private credit has played a critical role in recent years, stepping in to provide capital when banks pulled back, which he believes helped the U.S. avoid a recession. The market has grown rapidly, now estimated at $1.7 trillion and surpassing the high-yield bond market and rivaling the size of the leveraged loan market.
The Bottom Line
Zandi's parting advice? "Buckle up." With policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting consumer sentiment, the economic road ahead promises to be bumpy.
To hear the full conversation and gain deeper insights on navigating these challenging markets, listen to the complete episode of Peachtree Point of View with Mark Zandi on your favorite podcast platform.
Related posts
If you enjoyed this article, read through these related press releases and insights.
This week we have a special extended Market Update on the Peachtree Point of View podcast. CEO Greg Friedman and SVP Daniel Savage welcomed Jim Costello, Chief Economist and Head of Real Estate Economics at MSCI Real Assets, for a candid discussion about the current commercial real estate landscape. As stakeholders navigate through a period of significant economic uncertainty and policy shifts, Costello offered valuable insights for investors seeking to understand where opportunities might emerge in this volatile environment.
The conversation highlighted how recent economic turmoil has dramatically shifted market expectations. After many investors had been playing the "stay alive until 2025" game, holding on through interest rate shocks in hopes of eventual stabilization, recent policy shifts and uncertainty have "pulled the rug out from under" many market participants.
Key Takeaways for Investors:
- The end of capital market tailwinds: For decades (1985-2020), falling interest rates provided commercial real estate investors with built-in advantages through cap rate compression. Costello warns this era is likely over, shifting the focus to operational expertise: "The number one thing is going to be managing your properties effectively moving forward."
- Credit over equity may be the play: In this transitional market, debt investments are currently out performing equity positions on a risk-adjusted basis. Costello notes this creates opportunities for established private credit providers with proper infrastructure and experience over "debt tourists" entering the space opportunistically.
- Focus on local fundamentals: Rather than making broad sector-based allocations, Costello suggests investing in markets with strong demographic trends and knowledge-economy foundations. "It's the local fundamentals that matter more. It's about being in a market that has healthy demographics or some other type of growth."
- Opportunity in uncertainty: Despite potential recession risks, Costello remains optimistic about opportunities, particularly in distressed debt and turn around/special situations: "There's always money to be made in a down market... There's always opportunities for folks who can come in and clean up problems."
- Corporate bond rates as early indicators: Investors should watch corporate bond rates as leading indicators for cap rate movements, with recent spreads widening by approximately 40-50 basis points, potentially foreshadowing similar increases in real estate cap rates.
This Market Update discussion sheds light on how investment strategies need to evolve in response to new economic reality. Commercial real estate is transitioning from an era of "financial engineering" to one focused on operational excellence and local market knowledge.
Want more insights to guide your investment decisions? Listen to the full episode of Peachtree Point of View podcast for Jim Costello's complete analysis on market trends, interest rate predictions and specific markets to watch. Follow Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed about commercial real estate opportunities in this rapidly changing landscape.
.png)
Peachtree Group CEO Recognized as 2025 Industry Leader in Commercial Real Estate Finance
Peachtree Group is proud to announce that Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO, has been recognized among the 2025 Rainmakers in CRE Debt, Equity & Finance by GlobeSt., and named to Commercial Observer’s prestigious Power Finance list.
ATLANTA (May 5, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) is proud to announce that Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO, has been recognized among the 2025 Rainmakers in CRE Debt, Equity & Finance by GlobeSt.,and named to Commercial Observer’s prestigious Power Finance list. These industry-leading accolades highlight Friedman's exceptional leadership, strategic innovation and enduring impact on the commercial real estate finance landscape.
Inclusion on the GlobeSt. Rainmakers list acknowledges Friedman's ability to navigate one of the most challenging commercial real estate finance periods. Amid elevated interest rates, tightening capital markets and declining valuations, Friedman has led Peachtree's vertically integrated management platforms with clarity and conviction. His approach has helped stakeholders unlock value, access liquidity and capitalize on market dislocation.
Commercial Observer’s Power Finance list further affirms Friedman’s influence and adaptability. As lenders retracted and transaction volume slowed, Peachtree continued to deliver creative capital solutions from originating loans to establishing strategic partnerships and playing across the capital stack. Under Friedman’s leadership, Peachtree has remained a dependable partner known for its certainty of execution, critical expertise and a solutions-driven mindset.
“These recognitions are a testament to Greg’s vision and our entire team’s commitment to being a steady force in an unpredictable market,” said Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO of Peachtree. “Our strategy has always centered on disciplined investing, innovation and building strong relationships. Greg has set the tone.”
Peachtree’s success is powered by a high-performing, deeply experienced team that brings together the full spectrum of credit, equity, development and asset management expertise. This collective strength allows the firm to respond decisively to market shifts, underwrite with conviction and deliver solutions others can’t.
Peachtree has executed over $12 billion in commercial real estate transactions since inception. Its integrated platform aligns real estate, credit and capital markets expertise, positioning the firm to identify opportunities, deploy capital efficiently and manage risk across cycles.
Commercial Observer: 2025 Power Finance
Peachtree Group’s Managing Principal & CEO, Greg Friedman, recognized on Commercial Observer’s Power Finance 50 list.
"It was a highly competitive year for lenders on our list, and we gave props to those who kept the market ticking over with their multiple irons in the fire and several different ways to finance borrowers irrespective of market conditions. Whether they were offering a suite of products, playing up and down capital stacks, buying loan pools or securities, or launching new partnerships, our top lenders are those that offered continuity, reliability, certainty of execution, critical expertise and a wee bit of scrappiness.” — Commercial Observer