Barron's: The Fed’s Rate Cuts Won’t Save Commercial Real Estate
Peachtree CEO Greg Friedman explores the challenges facing the commercial real estate industry in light of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts.
"Extend and Pretend"—Just as Hamlet famously questioned, "To be or not to be," we are also on the brink of a crucial revelation. Are we facing a seismic shift with sustained higher interest rates, a largely overlooked issue? How will this shift affect commercial real estate and other asset classes in both the short and long term? Are the public and private sectors ready for what appears to be the inevitable? Today, we face more questions than answers, and indecision is no longer viable in a higher interest rate environment.
Unlike in the past few downturns, such as COVID, the Global Financial Crisis and the dotcom bust, the Fed significantly reduced interest rates, enabling owners of commercial real estate and lenders to easily engage in "Extend and Pretend," even when cash flows were negative or razor-thin, thanks to the exceptionally low interest costs.
Today, we are in a commercial real estate recession showing no signs of abating. The economy boasts considerable strength, driven by a strong job market, and record liquidity is on the sidelines. I do not see the necessary catalysts to revert interest rates to levels seen in previous cycles. Therefore, I don't see “Extend and Pretend” to be an effective strategy and would prepare for more bankruptcies, foreclosures and forced sales as reality sets in that we are in a new rate paradigm or maybe just a return to normalcy that, unfortunately, will be destructive to values, especially to the lower cap rate assets. Ultimately, amidst any market disruption, there will be pivotal opportunities for those with the decisiveness and the liquidity to seize them at the right moment.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 1, 2024, in response to a Wall Street Journal article titled: Even If the Fed Cuts, the Days of ultralow Rates are Over.
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Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman penned a recent article for Barron's - "Soft Landing Means a Hard Fall for Commercial Real Estate."
In the article he explores the challenges facing the commercial real estate industry in light of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts. With $1.5 trillion in CRE loans set to mature and refinancing becoming more expensive, Greg outlines strategic opportunities for investors, including capital-stack repositioning, private credit solutions, and distressed asset acquisitions.
As the market adjusts to higher borrowing costs, this is a must-read for anyone looking to stay ahead in commercial real estate. Click here to read the full article in Barron's.
Cheddar TV: Will We See a Recession in 2025?
Managing Principal and CEO of Peachtree Group, Greg Friedman, joins Cheddar's Dave Briggs to discuss the possibility of a recession in 2025. Watch!
Managing Principal and CEO of Peachtree Group, Greg Friedman, joins Cheddar's Dave Briggs to discuss the possibility of a recession in 2025.
Peachtree Group Launches Restaurant Management Division
Peachtree announces Partnership with AdventHealth with First Licensed Starbucks Location in Orlando.
ATLANTA (SEPT 4, 2024) – Peachtree Group, a vertically integrated investment management firm, has launched a restaurant management division. Under the leadership of Daniel Puglisi, SVP of corporate operations for hospitality management, this division will focus on operating quick-service restaurants, starting with coffee shops.
This new venture underscores Peachtree Group's commitment to expanding its footprint in the hospitality industry, beginning with a high-profile partnership with AdventHealth and launching a Starbucks location in its AdventHealth Orlando hospital.
The U.S. Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) market was valued at approximately$320 billion in 2023, encompassing major chains like McDonald's and smaller regional players. Coffee shops, including big names like Starbucks, Caribou Coffee and Dunkin', make up 12-15% of this market, contributing tens of billions in annual revenue.
"Since our founding in 2007, we have consistently grown by identifying inefficient markets and capitalizing on them to achieve strong returns and build sustainable businesses," said Greg Friedman, Peachtree Group’s managing principal and CEO. "The expansion into restaurants from our existing hospitality management capabilities was a natural evolution. Our partnership with AdventHealth marks a significant milestone as we look to replicate this successful model across their network and other captive locations."
The Starbucks at AdventHealth Orlando is now open and is the first storeto be opened under this new division. It is strategically positioned within the hospital's flagship university campus, featuring a two-story glass storefronton a prominent corner. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance patient satisfaction and provide convenient, high-quality service to hospital visitors and staff.
Peachtree Group is also in discussions with other coffee franchise offerings and aims to extend its reach to high profile or high demand markets with captive audiences. The goal is to establish a robust portfolio of high-profile quick-service coffee shop locations nationwide.
The new division will oversee all new and existing restaurant locations not within its own portfolio of hotels. This includes transitioning its downtown Orlando Starbucks location at its dual-branded Hilton Garden Inn andHome2 Suites by Hilton to the restaurant management division.
"Our commitment to excellence in service and operational efficiency sets us apart in the industry. By leveraging our extensive hospitality expertise and premium brand partnerships, we are able to deliver exceptional experiences to our customers and value to our landlord partners," Puglisi said.
This initiative follows a year-long development process, beginning with a lease agreement signed in August 2023 and construction commencing in February2024. Peachtree Group has toured several other AdventHealth campuses, laying the groundwork for future expansions.
Peachtree Group's strategic approach and customer service mindset have been key factors in securing this partnership. As other hospital systems observe the positive impact on AdventHealth's patient satisfaction scores and asset enhancement, Peachtree Group anticipates a growing demand for similar arrangements.
"We are excited about the potential to grow this venture rapidly, with an initial goal of reaching five stores as a beta test and ultimately aiming for 100 locations," Puglisi added. "Our focus is on hospitals, universities and other high-traffic, high-visibility locations where we can make the most significant impact."
About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.
Contact:
Charles Talbert
678-823-7683
ctalbert@peachtreegroup.com