In this episode of Peachtree's Point of View, Greg Friedman welcomes David Bitner, Global Head of Research and Executive Managing Director at Newmark, for an in-depth discussion on the commercial real estate landscape. They cover key economic and market trends, including the impact of sustained higher interest rates, the evolving debt market, and investment opportunities in a rapidly shifting environment. A major theme of the discussion is how higher interest rates continue to reshape commercial real estate valuations.
Commercial real estate investors and operators are facing a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with the era of ultra-low interest rates firmly in the rearview mirror. In a revealing conversation with Greg Friedman, David Bitner, Global Head of Research at Newmark, emphasizes that this change isn't temporary – it's a permanent feature of the investment landscape that requires a complete recalibration of expectations and strategies.
Looking ahead this year, Bitner anticipates continued volatility in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury likely to run between 3.8% and the mid-5% range. This volatility, coupled with ongoing economic uncertainty, will significantly impact transaction activity and asset valuations across all property types.
Despite these challenges, there are bright spots emerging. Office markets showed their first positive net absorption in 18 quarters during Q4 2023, suggesting a potential turning point. The industrial sector is poised for recovery, particularly in secondary and tertiary markets, driven by near shoring trends and over $530 billion in planned manufacturing investments. Multifamily properties, especially new construction, show attractive pricing dynamics relative to existing stock.
For investors looking to deploy capital, David suggests a balanced approach with a significant allocation to debt investments, where spreads appear more attractive than equity returns. He particularly highlights opportunities in direct lending and mezzanine debt, where returns can reach 14%. On the equity side, he points to value-add opportunities in trophy office conversions, though emphasizing the critical importance of submarket selection.
The wall of debt maturities remains a significant concern, with approximately $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing over the next couple of years. While banks have largely employed an "extend and pretend" strategy thus far, David suggests regulatory pressure and dwindling extension options could force more resolutions in 2025, leading to increased transaction activity and price discovery.
The podcast also touches on potential policy impacts from the new administration, including proposed tariffs and deregulation efforts, which could create both challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate markets.
For investors and operators in commercial real estate, 2025 promises to be a year of continued adaptation to new market realities. Success will require embracing volatility, adjusting return expectations, and taking amore targeted approach to investments across both debt and equity opportunities.
Peachtree Point of View explores today’s complex investment landscape, offering expert insights and actionable strategies to navigate dislocated markets and capitalize on mispriced risk. Each episode dives deep into market dynamics, equipping you with the knowledge to better understand and navigate the ever-changing financial world. Whether you're looking to invest, raise capital, or partner, we’ll reveal the tools and strategies needed to generate superior risk-adjusted returns.
.png)
ATLANTA (May 5, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) is proud to announce that Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO, has been recognized among the 2025 Rainmakers in CRE Debt, Equity & Finance by GlobeSt.,and named to Commercial Observer’s prestigious Power Finance list. These industry-leading accolades highlight Friedman's exceptional leadership, strategic innovation and enduring impact on the commercial real estate finance landscape.
Inclusion on the GlobeSt. Rainmakers list acknowledges Friedman's ability to navigate one of the most challenging commercial real estate finance periods. Amid elevated interest rates, tightening capital markets and declining valuations, Friedman has led Peachtree's vertically integrated management platforms with clarity and conviction. His approach has helped stakeholders unlock value, access liquidity and capitalize on market dislocation.
Commercial Observer’s Power Finance list further affirms Friedman’s influence and adaptability. As lenders retracted and transaction volume slowed, Peachtree continued to deliver creative capital solutions from originating loans to establishing strategic partnerships and playing across the capital stack. Under Friedman’s leadership, Peachtree has remained a dependable partner known for its certainty of execution, critical expertise and a solutions-driven mindset.
“These recognitions are a testament to Greg’s vision and our entire team’s commitment to being a steady force in an unpredictable market,” said Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO of Peachtree. “Our strategy has always centered on disciplined investing, innovation and building strong relationships. Greg has set the tone.”
Peachtree’s success is powered by a high-performing, deeply experienced team that brings together the full spectrum of credit, equity, development and asset management expertise. This collective strength allows the firm to respond decisively to market shifts, underwrite with conviction and deliver solutions others can’t.
Peachtree has executed over $12 billion in commercial real estate transactions since inception. Its integrated platform aligns real estate, credit and capital markets expertise, positioning the firm to identify opportunities, deploy capital efficiently and manage risk across cycles.
"It was a highly competitive year for lenders on our list, and we gave props to those who kept the market ticking over with their multiple irons in the fire and several different ways to finance borrowers irrespective of market conditions. Whether they were offering a suite of products, playing up and down capital stacks, buying loan pools or securities, or launching new partnerships, our top lenders are those that offered continuity, reliability, certainty of execution, critical expertise and a wee bit of scrappiness.” — Commercial Observer
Schwab Network - "Commercial real estate continues to remain in chaos," says Greg Friedman. He believes fundamentals surrounding the industry remain solid but capital markets continue to raise outlook uncertainty. Greg uses the 10-year treasury as a benchmark for commercial real estate and talks about the other ways sentiment has shifted in the industry.
