Grind to ’29: Opportunity in CRE’s Capital Reset

Over the last three years, commercial real estate has gone through the painful part of the cycle. Values reset, transactions slowed, lenders pulled back and many owners shifted from growth to defense. That was Survive to ’25. Now the market has moved into something different, or what we refer to as Grind to ’29.

This next phase will not be driven by falling rates. It will be an extended period in which outcomes are shaped by capital stack adjustments, underwriting discipline and the ability to move when others cannot.

The economic backdrop is stable but fragile. Headline data still appears durable, yet growth is increasingly uneven. A narrow set of AI-driven investments has carried much of the expansion, while broader private investment is slowing. At the same time, policy uncertainty has become a headwind in its own right.

For us, rates matter most at the long end of the curve. We are focused on the 10-year Treasury as the anchor for cap rates and permanent capital. Even in our current range-bound 10-year, while higher, it is still constructive, as it provides some stability. Even if the Fed eases modestly on the short end, underwriting will need to stand on fundamentals rather than multiple expansion.

That is why our strategy is centered on credit and special situations. At three-plus-trillion-dollar wall of maturities is colliding with a challenging refinancing market. Regional banks, historically a primary source of commercial real estate lending, are prioritizing their balance sheet over new originations.

The result is a meaningful gap in the capital markets. While lending spreads have compressed modestly in favored sectors such as multifamily and industrial, the gap between sectors remains wide, reinforcing the importance of selectivity and disciplined structure.

We are originating loans that banks would have written in prior cycles, but at a stronger basis following the valuation reset. At the same time, an increasing number of institutions are choosing to sell loans rather than extend them or push borrowers into refinancing. That shift is expanding activity in the secondary market as banks seek liquidity. The combination of selective originations and discounted loan purchases broadens our entry points rather than narrows them.

The prolonged period of “extend and pretend” did not resolve leverage risk. It deferred it. Today, there is a growing inventory of assets with capital structures that no longer reflect current rates or values. Many properties are operationally sound yet over-levered, and partnerships are feeling pressure as maturities approach without straight forward refinancing solutions.

We believe 2026 will be an inflection year for many commercial real estate owners. Decisions that were postponed must now be made. Owners will transact, contribute significant new equity, accept higher-cost capital through preferred equity or structured senior debt, or, in some cases, return assets to lenders.

The process is unlikely to be orderly. It is likely to be complex and uneven. For disciplined capital providers, that complexity creates attractive entry points. In this part of the cycle, it is less about broken real estate and more about broken capital stacks. That is where dislocation lives.

The common thread across everything we are doing is consistent. We prioritize basis, maintain disciplined structure and build in downside protection. The next leg of commercial real estate will reward patience, execution and the ability to provide solutions rather than predictions.

That is what Grind to ’29 means for us as we steadily build value while others wait.

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