As we move into 2025, Peachtree Group remains optimistic about the U.S. economy. While risks persist—from policy shifts to stretched markets—the underlying fundamentals are strong. This sentiment was echoed by our recent guest speaker, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, who shared his insights on the economy’s resilience and the challenges ahead, particularly for commercial real estate.
Economic Highlights and Key Insights
Mark emphasized the exceptional performance of the U.S. economy, with GDP growth expected to range between 2.5% and 3%, driven by increased labor participation and productivity gains. The labor market remains strong, with unemployment hovering around 4%, and households—especially those in the top income tiers—benefit from strong asset values and low debt-service ratios. However, he noted the pressures on lower-income households, who are feeling the strain of inflation and high-interest debt. This contrast contributes to a gap between strong economic data and public sentiment.
Risks and Projections for 2025
He outlined several key risks that may shape the economic landscape in 2025:
Commercial Real Estate and Private Credit
Mark highlighted the explosive growth over the past decade on private credit, now standing at eight times its 2010 size. While recognizing the risks of this rapid expansion, he noted that stabilizing economic fundamentals is a significant mitigating factor.
He also addressed the current state of CRE valuations, acknowledging a significant correction since 2022. Asset prices are down 10–20% from their peaks, depending on asset type, but he expressed cautious optimism for future returns as valuations in many segments approach fair value. Challenges remain, however, as muted transaction volumes and uncertainty around intrinsic values make price discovery difficult in a higher interest rate environment. However, he concluded by emphasizing that CRE, having undergone a meaningful correction, is uniquely positioned for potentially stronger returns.
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ATLANTA (May 5, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) is proud to announce that Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO, has been recognized among the 2025 Rainmakers in CRE Debt, Equity & Finance by GlobeSt.,and named to Commercial Observer’s prestigious Power Finance list. These industry-leading accolades highlight Friedman's exceptional leadership, strategic innovation and enduring impact on the commercial real estate finance landscape.
Inclusion on the GlobeSt. Rainmakers list acknowledges Friedman's ability to navigate one of the most challenging commercial real estate finance periods. Amid elevated interest rates, tightening capital markets and declining valuations, Friedman has led Peachtree's vertically integrated management platforms with clarity and conviction. His approach has helped stakeholders unlock value, access liquidity and capitalize on market dislocation.
Commercial Observer’s Power Finance list further affirms Friedman’s influence and adaptability. As lenders retracted and transaction volume slowed, Peachtree continued to deliver creative capital solutions from originating loans to establishing strategic partnerships and playing across the capital stack. Under Friedman’s leadership, Peachtree has remained a dependable partner known for its certainty of execution, critical expertise and a solutions-driven mindset.
“These recognitions are a testament to Greg’s vision and our entire team’s commitment to being a steady force in an unpredictable market,” said Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO of Peachtree. “Our strategy has always centered on disciplined investing, innovation and building strong relationships. Greg has set the tone.”
Peachtree’s success is powered by a high-performing, deeply experienced team that brings together the full spectrum of credit, equity, development and asset management expertise. This collective strength allows the firm to respond decisively to market shifts, underwrite with conviction and deliver solutions others can’t.
Peachtree has executed over $12 billion in commercial real estate transactions since inception. Its integrated platform aligns real estate, credit and capital markets expertise, positioning the firm to identify opportunities, deploy capital efficiently and manage risk across cycles.
"It was a highly competitive year for lenders on our list, and we gave props to those who kept the market ticking over with their multiple irons in the fire and several different ways to finance borrowers irrespective of market conditions. Whether they were offering a suite of products, playing up and down capital stacks, buying loan pools or securities, or launching new partnerships, our top lenders are those that offered continuity, reliability, certainty of execution, critical expertise and a wee bit of scrappiness.” — Commercial Observer
Schwab Network - "Commercial real estate continues to remain in chaos," says Greg Friedman. He believes fundamentals surrounding the industry remain solid but capital markets continue to raise outlook uncertainty. Greg uses the 10-year treasury as a benchmark for commercial real estate and talks about the other ways sentiment has shifted in the industry.
