在最近的市场最新电话会议上，我们听取了雷蒙德·詹姆斯首席投资官拉里·亚当以及桃树集团董事总经理兼首席执行官格雷格·弗里德曼和桃树集团股票资本市场副总裁丹尼尔·萨维奇的见解。讨论中最引人注目的时刻之一是一篇有趣的投资要点，它强调了持续投资比试图根据政治周期把握市场时机的重要性。
考虑一下：如果你从1970年开始在股票市场上投资了1万美元，并且只在共和党总统任期内继续投资，那么到目前为止，你的投资将增长到大约13.3万美元。相反，如果你只在民主党总统任期内继续投资，你的投资组合将飙升至70万美元左右。
现在，这是数字变得更加引人注目的地方。如果你一直全力投资市场，无论哪个政党掌权，那么最初的1万美元都会升值到令人印象深刻的水平 160 万美元!
事实证明，根据政治派别来安排市场时机不如维持一致的投资策略有效。正如拉里·亚当指出的那样， ”进入市场比尝试寻找市场更重要。我认为这是一个关键的教训...”
政治变革带来的波动性可能诱使投资者撤回或做出仓促的决定。但是，历史表明，那些在所有市场条件下保持耐心并进行投资的人往往会获得最大的回报。
拉里·亚当于2018年加入雷蒙德·詹姆斯担任首席投资官。亚当先生在金融市场拥有三十多年的经验，为顾问和客户带来了有关市场和经济的丰富知识和宝贵见解。作为首席信息官，亚当先生利用公司战略家的见解和观点，发展公司的首席信息官观点，即凝聚力和全面的宏观展望。亚当先生在众多客户活动中发表演讲，并以其向投资者解释复杂概念的能力而闻名。
亚当先生为顾问和客户提供有关市场的深入指导，包括每周和每月的评论以及季度展望。除了担任投资战略委员会主席外，他还是全球财富解决方案（GWS）多元化与包容性校园招聘委员会、GWS执行委员会以及另类和结构性投资产品批准委员会的成员。
在加入雷蒙德·詹姆斯之前，亚当先生曾担任德意志银行私人财富管理美洲首席信息官和全球首席投资策略师的双重职务。他于 1991 年获得马里兰洛约拉大学金融专业工商管理学士学位，并于 1993 年获得马里兰洛约拉大学金融专业的商学硕士学位。亚当先生是洛约拉大学塞林格商业与管理学院的兼职教授，教授国际金融课程。他于1996年获得特许金融分析师称号，于2001年获得注册投资管理® 认证，并于2004年获得注册财务规划师® 称号。亚当先生经常出现在CNBC和彭博社上，并经常被知名出版物引用，例如 《华尔街日报》 和 《巴伦周刊》。
In a timely and insightful conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast, host Greg Friedman sits down with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, to discuss the current economic landscape and what investors should be watching.
Zandi doesn't mince words about the current economic situation. He notes that the probability of recession has jumped from 15% to 35% in recent months, primarily due to policy decisions – especially the escalating global trade war. While he believes the economy remains"fundamentally sound," Zandi warns that continued policy uncertainty could tip the scales toward recession within weeks.
"If he continues down this path for another couple, three, four weeks, recession will be more likely than not," Zandi cautions about the administration's trade policies.
For commercial real estate investors, Zandi offers a sobering perspective on interest rates. Despite the administration's desire for lower rates, he believes the 10-year Treasury yield (around 4.1%) is appropriately priced for a well-functioning economy. Unless we enter a recession, Zandi doesn't foresee significant rate decreases in the near term.
Commercial real estate, which Zandi acknowledges has"been in a recession the last three years," faces continued challenges. While he believes much of the valuation adjustment is complete, a broader economic recession would mean "another leg down in valuations and pricing."
For investors trying to gauge recession risks, Zandi offers practical metrics to monitor:
On private credit markets, Zandi noted that private credit has played a critical role in recent years, stepping in to provide capital when banks pulled back, which he believes helped the U.S. avoid a recession. The market has grown rapidly, now estimated at $1.7 trillion and surpassing the high-yield bond market and rivaling the size of the leveraged loan market.
Zandi's parting advice? "Buckle up." With policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting consumer sentiment, the economic road ahead promises to be bumpy.
To hear the full conversation and gain deeper insights on navigating these challenging markets, listen to the complete episode of Peachtree Point of View with Mark Zandi on your favorite podcast platform.
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A prominent investor who shaped modern portfolio strategies, Robert Arnott, once said, 'In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.'
This idea rings especially true in today's market, where uncertainty, volatility and shifting economic conditions create both risks and opportunities. The most successful investors recognize that these periods often present the most compelling investment opportunities.
We, too, see these moments as catalysts for strategic capital deployment. The evolving commercial real estate landscape is creating precisely the kind of dislocation where disciplined, well-capitalized investors can thrive.
As our team assesses the commercial real estate landscape, recent developments in the credit markets continue to present compelling opportunities.
The latest banking data reveals a noteworthy shift: while demand for C&I loans rises for the first time in two years, banks continue tightening the grip around commercial real estate.
Despite increasing demand for liquidity, traditional lenders remain highly selective, offering lower loan-to-value ratios and requiring stronger borrower covenants. As a result, many commercial real estate owners and developers face significant refinancing challenges, particularly with the substantial level of debt maturities in 2025 and beyond. We are talking about trillions of dollars in loan maturing.
This dynamic reinforces a growing reliance on private credit lending, a space where our firm not only has a long track record but is also well-positioned to capitalize on ongoing market dislocations to deliver attractive, risk-adjusted returns.
Our firm's ability to pivot across the capital stack—originating loans, acquiring debt or investing opportunistically - positions us to capitalize on this dislocation.
With rising debt costs and limited refinancing options, many commercial real estate owners will be forced to make tough decisions. While this warning has been repeated over the past few years, we are now at the proverbial end of the line. As a result, we anticipate an increase in asset sale opportunities, acquiring first mortgages and recapitalizations.
Our experience in navigating prior downturns, coupled with our underwriting expertise, allows us to approach these opportunities with discipline, ensuring we secure assets and debt positions at favorable valuations.
As we move through this evolving economic cycle, our focus remains on the disciplined deployment of capital into opportunities that offer strong upside potential while minimizing the downside.
We recognize that market dislocations create compelling entry points for special situation investments. As liquidity constraints tighten across key sectors, we are strategically positioned to deploy capital into high-value opportunities. In hospitality, the deferral of brand-mandated renovations is reaching a breaking point, driving distress and accelerating transactions—further reinforcing the need for flexible, well-capitalized investors to step in.
Our experience in stressed investing and structured finance enables us to use creative solutions when traditional capital sources are unavailable. By maintaining a flexible approach and strong liquidity reserves, we are positioned to act decisively as the market turns, capturing value where others cannot.
The favorable landscape for private credit lending will remain with us for years, but as it evolves, it is also creating new opportunities that we are poised to seize. Our ability to deploy capital where others cannot continue to drive outsized value for our stakeholders.
In this episode of Peachtree's Point of View, Greg Friedman welcomes David Bitner, Global Head of Research and Executive Managing Director at Newmark, for an in-depth discussion on the commercial real estate landscape. They cover key economic and market trends, including the impact of sustained higher interest rates, the evolving debt market, and investment opportunities in a rapidly shifting environment. A major theme of the discussion is how higher interest rates continue to reshape commercial real estate valuations.
Commercial real estate investors and operators are facing a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with the era of ultra-low interest rates firmly in the rearview mirror. In a revealing conversation with Greg Friedman, David Bitner, Global Head of Research at Newmark, emphasizes that this change isn't temporary – it's a permanent feature of the investment landscape that requires a complete recalibration of expectations and strategies.
Looking ahead this year, Bitner anticipates continued volatility in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury likely to run between 3.8% and the mid-5% range. This volatility, coupled with ongoing economic uncertainty, will significantly impact transaction activity and asset valuations across all property types.
Despite these challenges, there are bright spots emerging. Office markets showed their first positive net absorption in 18 quarters during Q4 2023, suggesting a potential turning point. The industrial sector is poised for recovery, particularly in secondary and tertiary markets, driven by near shoring trends and over $530 billion in planned manufacturing investments. Multifamily properties, especially new construction, show attractive pricing dynamics relative to existing stock.
For investors looking to deploy capital, David suggests a balanced approach with a significant allocation to debt investments, where spreads appear more attractive than equity returns. He particularly highlights opportunities in direct lending and mezzanine debt, where returns can reach 14%. On the equity side, he points to value-add opportunities in trophy office conversions, though emphasizing the critical importance of submarket selection.
The wall of debt maturities remains a significant concern, with approximately $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing over the next couple of years. While banks have largely employed an "extend and pretend" strategy thus far, David suggests regulatory pressure and dwindling extension options could force more resolutions in 2025, leading to increased transaction activity and price discovery.
The podcast also touches on potential policy impacts from the new administration, including proposed tariffs and deregulation efforts, which could create both challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate markets.
For investors and operators in commercial real estate, 2025 promises to be a year of continued adaptation to new market realities. Success will require embracing volatility, adjusting return expectations, and taking amore targeted approach to investments across both debt and equity opportunities.
Peachtree Point of View explores today’s complex investment landscape, offering expert insights and actionable strategies to navigate dislocated markets and capitalize on mispriced risk. Each episode dives deep into market dynamics, equipping you with the knowledge to better understand and navigate the ever-changing financial world. Whether you're looking to invest, raise capital, or partner, we’ll reveal the tools and strategies needed to generate superior risk-adjusted returns.
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