Schwab Network – Greg Friedman joins Nicole Petallides at the NYSE site with a deep-dive into the high rate environment facing investors right now. When looking at the 10-year Treasury rate which is "more than double pre-2022 average," Greg believes its reshaping valuations and refinancing dynamics. In the real estate realm, he sees uneven performance saying "90% of office vacancies are in just 30% of office buildings."

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The Federal Reserve's 50 basis points cut to the Fed funds rate in September has sparked fresh conversations about its impact on commercial real estate (CRE) investments. While there's optimism in some corners about a return to a lower rate environment, the bond market signals a different story, with long-term rates remaining high and inflation risks persisting. This is a good reminder that short-term rates, set by the Fed, and long-term rates, like the 10-yearTreasury, often move independently.

Today's higher rate environment reshapes the value fundamentals of CRE. The current 10-yearTreasury rate of around 4%—double the pre-2022 average—demands that CRE values recalibrate. Reports of a 20% drop in CRE values since 2022 peak levels require context; those valuations were rooted in a vastly different interest rate environment. Today’s scenario implies a slower growth trajectory, requiring investors to adapt to a "new game" of higher rates for longer.

Across CRE assets, different sectors respond to higher rates in distinct ways. Hotels, for example, benefit from solid demand as travel returns, while multifamily assets continue to show resilience despite refinancing pressures. Office assets, however, face significant stress due to both secular and rate-driven challenges.

Even as the Fed cuts rates, refinancing on previously low-rate debt presents ongoing challenges for CRE assets, especially those with upcoming maturity dates. Higher rates elevate the cost of debt and squeeze cash flows while impacting the overall asset valuations, placing additional stress.

Despite headwinds, the current environment offers unique opportunities to strategic, agile investors. While higher rates may drive down asset values, for those prepared to navigate today's market with moderate leverage and a forward-looking strategy, today's challenges can evolve into future tailwinds. As the Fed's recent moves signal a "higher for longer" era, CRE investors who adapt swiftly may find unprecedented opportunities, making this a prime moment for decisive action in commercial real estate.

See Peachtree Group’s CEO and Managing Principal, Greg Friedman discuss this topic on CNBC’s Fast Money.

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在最近的市场最新电话会议上，我们听取了雷蒙德·詹姆斯首席投资官拉里·亚当以及桃树集团董事总经理兼首席执行官格雷格·弗里德曼和桃树集团股票资本市场副总裁丹尼尔·萨维奇的见解。讨论中最引人注目的时刻之一是一篇有趣的投资要点，它强调了持续投资比试图根据政治周期把握市场时机的重要性。

几十年来的投资见解

考虑一下：如果你从1970年开始在股票市场上投资了1万美元，并且只在共和党总统任期内继续投资，那么到目前为止，你的投资将增长到大约13.3万美元。相反，如果你只在民主党总统任期内继续投资，你的投资组合将飙升至70万美元左右。

现在，这是数字变得更加引人注目的地方。如果你一直全力投资市场，无论哪个政党掌权，那么最初的1万美元都会升值到令人印象深刻的水平 160 万美元!

教训：坚持到底

事实证明，根据政治派别来安排市场时机不如维持一致的投资策略有效。正如拉里·亚当指出的那样， ”进入市场比尝试寻找市场更重要。我认为这是一个关键的教训...”

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政治变革带来的波动性可能诱使投资者撤回或做出仓促的决定。但是，历史表明，那些在所有市场条件下保持耐心并进行投资的人往往会获得最大的回报。

关键是要进入市场，而不是试图智胜市场。

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关于拉里·亚当

拉里·亚当于2018年加入雷蒙德·詹姆斯担任首席投资官。亚当先生在金融市场拥有三十多年的经验，为顾问和客户带来了有关市场和经济的丰富知识和宝贵见解。作为首席信息官，亚当先生利用公司战略家的见解和观点，发展公司的首席信息官观点，即凝聚力和全面的宏观展望。亚当先生在众多客户活动中发表演讲，并以其向投资者解释复杂概念的能力而闻名。

亚当先生为顾问和客户提供有关市场的深入指导，包括每周和每月的评论以及季度展望。除了担任投资战略委员会主席外，他还是全球财富解决方案（GWS）多元化与包容性校园招聘委员会、GWS执行委员会以及另类和结构性投资产品批准委员会的成员。

在加入雷蒙德·詹姆斯之前，亚当先生曾担任德意志银行私人财富管理美洲首席信息官和全球首席投资策略师的双重职务。他于 1991 年获得马里兰洛约拉大学金融专业工商管理学士学位，并于 1993 年获得马里兰洛约拉大学金融专业的商学硕士学位。亚当先生是洛约拉大学塞林格商业与管理学院的兼职教授，教授国际金融课程。他于1996年获得特许金融分析师称号，于2001年获得注册投资管理® 认证，并于2004年获得注册财务规划师® 称号。亚当先生经常出现在CNBC和彭博社上，并经常被知名出版物引用，例如 《华尔街日报》 和 《巴伦周刊》。

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