“延伸并假装” ——正如哈姆雷特曾问过的一句名言:“要么成为,要么不成为”,我们也正处于关键启示的边缘。我们是否面临着利率持续上升的巨大转变,这是一个基本上被忽视的问题?从短期和长期来看,这种转变将如何影响商业房地产和其他资产类别?公共和私营部门是否为看似不可避免的事情做好了准备?今天,我们面临的问题多于答案,在更高的利率环境中,犹豫不决已不再可行。
与过去几次衰退(例如COVID、全球金融危机和互联网泡沫破裂)不同,由于利息成本极低,美联储大幅降低了利率,使商业地产所有者和贷款人即使在现金流为负数或微薄的情况下也能轻松参与 “延期和假装”。
今天,我们正处于商业房地产衰退之中,没有减弱的迹象。在强劲的就业市场的推动下,经济拥有相当强劲的实力,创纪录的流动性处于观望状态。我认为没有必要的催化剂可以将利率恢复到前几个周期的水平。因此,我不认为 “延期和假装” 是一种有效的策略,它会为更多的破产、丧失抵押品赎回权和强制出售做准备,因为我们处于新的利率模式中,或者可能只是恢复常态,不幸的是,这将对价值观,尤其是对较低市值利率的资产造成破坏。归根结底,在任何市场混乱中,对于那些具有决定性和流动性的人来说,将有关键的机会在正确的时机抓住这些机会。
这篇评论最初出现在 格雷格·弗里德曼的领英页面 2024 年 5 月 1 日,回应 《华尔街日报》 文章标题为: 即使美联储削减利率,超低利率的时代也结束了。
相关 帖子

You don't think twice about skipping a workout or hitting snooze, until six months later when your back goes out lifting a suitcase. That's the thing about choices: they rarely shout. Most whisper. At the moment, they feel light, harmless, and even forgettable. But over time, they stack up and eventually shape everything.
It's the same in commercial real estate.
For years, the market rewarded financial engineering. Falling interest rates, cap rate compression and cheap capital allowed many investors to ride the momentum and still generate strong returns. That era is over.
We're now operating in a higher-for-longer environment. Interest rates are elevated, traditional lenders have pulled back, and capital markets are volatile. Macroeconomic disruptions, geopolitical risk and inflation-shifting trading policy are repricing risk in real time.
In this environment, every move matters. Every decision, whether to buy, sell, recapitalize or hold, carries more weight than it did even a year ago.
· Capital must be deployed with precision. The margin for error has narrowed. Mispricing risk, overleveraging,or relying on optimistic underwriting can quickly impair a deal.
· Liquidity is a strategic advantage.In a market where many lenders have pulled back or lowered leverage, execution certainty is no longer assumed. It's earned.
· Fundamentals, not financial engineering, define success. Cap rate compression is no longer the tailwind it once was. Returns must come from operational excellence, asset quality and disciplined management.
· Time is costly. In action can be just as damaging as a poor decision. Delays in refinancing or hesitation in uncertain markets can weigh heavily on performance.
At Peachtree, we've built our platform for this exact environment. With a fully integrated investment and credit platform, deep experience across market cycles, and flexible capital ready to deploy, we're well-positioned to take decisive action when others hesitate.
Because in this market, as inlife, every action has a weight and the most successful outcomes are born from clarity, discipline and conviction.
Private credit remains one of the most compelling solutions in today's market, offering downside protection, yield and flexibility. And with traditional capital still constrained, special situation investing is gaining momentum as a primary strategy to unlock value in a dislocated market.
As the landscape evolves, we continue to seek opportunities that leverage our strengths and provide value to our investors.
— Greg Friedman | Managing Principal & CEO of Peachtree Group

Peachtree Opens Hampton Inn in Hawaii

Hampton Inn & Suites Maui North Shore is now open in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii. The newly built oceanfront hotel, located on the site of the historic Maui Palms Hotel, is owned by Peachtree Group and operated by Springboard Hospitality. The hotel has 136 rooms, ocean-view suites and a design rooted in Maui’s culture.
Read more in this article in Lodging Magazine.

Peachtree Group Opens New Office in Austin
Peachtree Group has expanded its national presence with the opening of its first office outside of its Atlanta headquarters in downtown Austin. This move aligns with the company’s growth strategy and commitment to Texas’ commercial real estate market, according to the company.

With significant investments across the state, including ongoing developments in Dallas and San Antonio and an upcoming project in Austin, establishing an office in the state capital conforms with Peachtree’s long-term vision. Austin’s business environment and growth prospects make it an ideal location to strengthen the firm’s reach and partnerships, according to the company.
Peachtree’s connection to Austin runs deep. The firm has been recognized among the Longhorn 100, a distinction honoring the fastest-growing businesses led by the University of Texas alumni. Additionally, Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal/CEO, a University of Texas graduate, actively supports the institution by serving on the Real Estate Fund Advisory Board for the Texas McCombs School of Business.
“Our expansion into Austin marks an exciting milestone for Peachtree Group,” said Friedman. “Texas is a critical market for us, and establishing an office in the heart of downtown Austin will allow us to better support our growing portfolio and deepen our relationships in the region. With our ongoing projects across the state and our strong ties to the University of Texas community, this move reinforces our commitment to long-term investment and growth in Texas.”
The new office is in the 100 Congress building and will serve as a hub for Peachtree’s investment and development activities in the region.