“延伸并假装” ——正如哈姆雷特曾问过的一句名言：“要么成为，要么不成为”，我们也正处于关键启示的边缘。我们是否面临着利率持续上升的巨大转变，这是一个基本上被忽视的问题？从短期和长期来看，这种转变将如何影响商业房地产和其他资产类别？公共和私营部门是否为看似不可避免的事情做好了准备？今天，我们面临的问题多于答案，在更高的利率环境中，犹豫不决已不再可行。
与过去几次衰退（例如COVID、全球金融危机和互联网泡沫破裂）不同，由于利息成本极低，美联储大幅降低了利率，使商业地产所有者和贷款人即使在现金流为负数或微薄的情况下也能轻松参与 “延期和假装”。
今天，我们正处于商业房地产衰退之中，没有减弱的迹象。在强劲的就业市场的推动下，经济拥有相当强劲的实力，创纪录的流动性处于观望状态。我认为没有必要的催化剂可以将利率恢复到前几个周期的水平。因此，我不认为 “延期和假装” 是一种有效的策略，它会为更多的破产、丧失抵押品赎回权和强制出售做准备，因为我们处于新的利率模式中，或者可能只是恢复常态，不幸的是，这将对价值观，尤其是对较低市值利率的资产造成破坏。归根结底，在任何市场混乱中，对于那些具有决定性和流动性的人来说，将有关键的机会在正确的时机抓住这些机会。
这篇评论最初出现在 格雷格·弗里德曼的领英页面 2024 年 5 月 1 日，回应 《华尔街日报》 文章标题为： 即使美联储削减利率，超低利率的时代也结束了。
In a recent discussion with Hotel Management, Brian Waldman, Chief Investment Officer at Peachtree Group, emphasized the importance of opportunistic investments in the current hospitality market. While premium-branded select-service and compact full-service hotels are generally stable across market cycles, Waldman noted that the most compelling opportunities often arise from unique situations rather than adhering strictly to a single chain scale or technology.
Waldman also highlighted the significance of transparency in hotel financing. He advised that owners should be forthcoming with lenders about potential challenges and deviations from plans, as early transparency fosters credibility and collaborative problem-solving, which is crucial in navigating financial uncertainties.
Peachtree Group's approach aligns with these insights, focusing on strategic investments that leverage both market opportunities and operational efficiencies. Their portfolio reflects a commitment to identifying and capitalizing on situations where value can be enhanced through decisive action and transparent partnerships.
Reuters | US summer flight bookings are down 10% year-on-year — even though airfares are cheaper — and the airline sector is lagging behind the wider market. Nevertheless, Greg Friedman of Peachtree Group says the market will pick up and even benefit in 2026.
Schwab Network: With the summer season well underway, Greg Friedman is bullish on hotel and travel stocks. He believes there's favoritism toward some companies that investors may not realize unless they look under the surface. Greg breaks down the trends he sees to explain why optimism is high for companies like Hyatt (H), Hilton (HLT), and Airbnb (ABNB).
