CNBC: La Reserva Federal reduce los tipos de interés: ¿un punto de inflexión para los inversores inmobiliarios comerciales o simplemente una farsa?

Greg Friedman, director ejecutivo de Peachtree Group, habla sobre El dinero rápido de CNBC

La reducción de 50 puntos básicos de la Reserva Federal a la tasa de los fondos federales en septiembre ha provocado nuevas conversaciones sobre su impacto en las inversiones inmobiliarias comerciales (CRE). Si bien en algunos sectores hay optimismo con respecto a la vuelta a un entorno de tipos más bajos, el mercado de bonos señala una historia diferente, ya que los tipos de interés a largo plazo se mantienen altos y los riesgos de inflación persisten. Este es un buen recordatorio de que los tipos a corto plazo, establecidos por la Reserva Federal, y los tipos a largo plazo, como los del Tesoro a 10 años, suelen moverse de forma independiente.

 

El entorno actual de tasas más altas reconfigura los fundamentos del valor de la CRE. La tasa actual del Tesoro a 10 años, de alrededor del 4% (el doble de la media anterior a 2022) exige que los valores de la CRE se recalibren. Los informes sobre una caída del 20% en los valores de los CRE desde los niveles máximos de 2022 requieren contexto; esas valoraciones se basaron en un entorno de tipos de interés muy diferente. El escenario actual implica una trayectoria de crecimiento más lenta, lo que exige que los inversores se adapten a un «nuevo juego» de tipos más altos durante más tiempo.

 

En todos los activos de CRE, los diferentes sectores responden a las tasas más altas de distintas maneras. Los hoteles, por ejemplo, se benefician de una sólida demanda a medida que aumentan los viajes, mientras que los activos multifamiliares siguen mostrando resiliencia a pesar de las presiones de refinanciación. Sin embargo, los activos de oficina se enfrentan a un estrés significativo debido a los desafíos seculares y a los impulsados por los tipos de interés.

 

A pesar de que la Reserva Federal reduce los tipos, la refinanciación de deuda que antes tenía tasas bajas presenta desafíos continuos para los activos de CRE, especialmente aquellos con fechas de vencimiento próximas. Los tipos más altos elevan el costo de la deuda y reducen los flujos de caja, al tiempo que repercuten en las valoraciones generales de los activos, lo que ejerce una presión adicional.

A pesar de los obstáculos, el entorno actual ofrece oportunidades únicas para los inversores estratégicos y ágiles. Si bien los tipos más altos pueden hacer bajar el valor de los activos, para quienes estén preparados para navegar por el mercado actual con un apalancamiento moderado y una estrategia con visión de futuro, los desafíos actuales pueden convertirse en vientos de favor en el futuro. Dado que las recientes medidas de la Reserva Federal apuntan a una era en la que «subirán durante más tiempo», los inversores en bienes raíces comerciales que se adapten con rapidez podrían encontrar oportunidades sin precedentes, por lo que este es un momento inmejorable para tomar medidas decisivas en el sector inmobiliario comercial.

 

Vea al CEO y director gerente de Peachtree Group, Greg Friedman, hablar sobre este tema en Fast Money de CNBC.

Relacionado publicaciones

Si te ha gustado este artículo, lee estos comunicados de prensa y puntos de vista relacionados.
General
Comunicado de prensa
5 minutos de lectura

Peachtree Group Wins Multiple Marriott Select Brands Awards During Ceremony

Peachtree Group announced that it received multiple Marriott Select Brands (MSB) Awards during this year’s Marriott Select Brands Owner & Franchisee CONNECT Conference in Orlando, Fla., including Gold Circle winner, SpringHill Suites Dallas Rockwall, Texas

ATLANTA (July 2, 2024) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) announced that it received multiple Marriott Select Brands (MSB) Awards during this year’s Marriott Select Brands Owner & Franchisee CONNECT Conference in Orlando, Fla. The awards recognize hotels that demonstrate outstanding service, innovation and commitment to guest satisfaction.

“These awards are a testament to the exceptional work our hotel associates deliver every day,” said Steve Mackenzie, Peachtree’s senior vice president of operations, hospitality management. “These hotels have consistently excelled in guest and F&B satisfaction, setting a benchmark for unparalleled service, and we are proud to have them as part of the Peachtree family. Additionally, we extend our gratitude to our partners who entrust us with managing their properties. Their collaboration has been instrumental in achieving these accolades, showcasing our shared commitment to superior quality.”

The award winners include:

Platinum Circle

·        SpringHill Suites Lindale, Texas

Gold Circle

·        Fairfield Inn & Suites Gadsden, Alabama

·        SpringHill Suites Dallas Rockwall, Texas

·        TownePlace Suites Dallas Rockwall, Texas

Silver Circle

·        Courtyard by Marriott Indianapolis Plainfield, Indiana

·        SpringHill Suites Vero Beach, Florida

F&B Satisfaction

·        SpringHill Suites Lindale, Texas

“Every recipient of these awards embodies the essence of Peachtree’s mission, showcasing outstanding excellence, strong leadership and a relentless dedication to serving our guests, partners and communities,” said Shara Roddan, vice president of operations, hospitality management.

About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.

General
Perspectiva
5 minutos de lectura

Adapting to Change: How Higher Interest Rates are Shaping Commercial Real Estate Investment Strategies

Peachtree Group recently had the privilege of hosting David Bitner, a renowned expert in the commercial real estate industry, on our quarterly market update call. As the global head of research for Newmark, a leading commercial real estate advisor, David's insights on the ongoing transition in commercial real estate (CRE) were invaluable. His discussion outlined a significant shift in the commercial real estate market, highlighting the transition from a low-interest rate environment post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to a period of higher rates that are reshaping investment strategies.

Peachtree Group recently had the privilege of hosting David Bitner, a renowned expert in the commercial real estate industry, on our quarterly market update call. As the global head of research for Newmark, a leading commercial real estate advisor, David's insights on the ongoing transition in commercial real estate (CRE) were invaluable. His discussion outlined a significant shift in the commercial real estate market, highlighting the transition from a low-interest rate environment post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to a period of higher rates that are reshaping investment strategies.

Highlights from the conversation included:

  • Interest Rates and Market Transition: The shift from historically low interest rates to a "more normal rate     paradigm," emphasizing the end of a prolonged period of declining     rates. This shift will likely affect all risk assets, including commercial real estate, by reducing the tailwinds that previously inflated asset prices and supported various investment strategies.
  • Impact on CRE and Investments: As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing increases, impacting the valuation and affordability of real estate investments. This shift could lead to higher capitalization rates (cap rates) and change the dynamics of investment returns, making it crucial for investors to adapt their strategies     accordingly. Floating rate debt, once considered a cheaper option, may no longer be the most economical option due to rising rates.
  • Market Volatility and Opportunities: While increased volatility in the market is expected as it adjusts to the new rate environment, it also brings a silver lining of opportunities. This can lead to both risks and opportunities. While some investors may face challenges, those with "dry powder" or readily available capital might find attractive entry points into the market, fostering a sense of optimism amidst the changes.
  • Long-term Outlook and Strategy Adjustments: Investors need to prepare for a sustained period of higher interest rates and adjust their strategies to remain viable. This includes expecting higher costs of debt and being cautious of investment valuations that do not adequately account for the new economic conditions.
  • Banking Sector and CRE Debt: There's a concern about the impact of rising rates on the banking sector, particularly smaller regional banks heavily invested in CRE loans. The potential for increased defaults and financial strain on these banks could lead to broader economic implications if not managed carefully.
  • Long-term Implications for Asset Values and     Investment Returns: The long-term outlook is cautious, with expectations of continued market adjustment to the higher rate environment. This adjustment is anticipated to be gradual, with investors continuing to reassess risk and return parameters.

Overall, the discussion highlights a transformative period in the commercial real estate market, prompted by the shift to a higher interest rate environment. This change presents an opportunity to refine investment strategies, enabling investors to navigate and capitalize on the evolving market dynamics effectively.

General
Perspectiva
5 minutos de lectura

Lessons Learned: Insights from Peachtree Group Senior Leaders

Peachtree's track record in commercial real estate is impressive. Our team has thrived through three significant economic disruptions. Our senior leaders have been instrumental in that success. Recently we asked those leaders to reflect on their lessons learned and share how that experience has shaped their thought process moving forward. Here are a few of those insights.

Peachtree's track record in commercial real estate is impressive. Our team has thrived through three significant economic disruptions. Our senior leaders have been instrumental in that success. Recently we asked those leaders to reflect on their lessons learned and share how that experience has shaped their thought process moving forward.

Here are a few of those insights.

Lessons Learned with Peachtree Leaders Managing Principles

"Building a formidable team is crucial for realizing your vision. Select individuals based on their exceptional skills and expertise and then trust them to excel in their roles. Empowering your team unlocks their full potential, driving extraordinary results and propelling your organization to new heights."

Greg Friedman and Jatin Desai – Managing Principals

 

“Foresight is critical in the investment process, requiring continuous consideration of macroeconomic conditions alongside local economic factors. This dual analysis enables us to identify nuanced opportunities and manage risks more effectively. By integrating global and regional insights, we can make more informed and strategic decisions, enhancing the potential for the investment's long-term success."

Greg Friedman, Managing Principal and CEO

 

“Ensure sufficient liquidity to maintain resilience. We have implemented and consistently maintained this approach for our Funds. While it may impact internal rates of return (IRR), it will allow us to endure market volatility and retain assets. Asset values typically rebound if adequate capital is available to weather downturns.”

Jatin Desai, Managing Principal and CFO

 

Lessons Learned with Peachtree Leaders

“Navigating through development always entails its share of challenges and victories, a reality underscored especially during Covid. While previous downturns primarily revolved around financial aspects, the pandemic introduced disruptions in cost, labor, and material supply chains. Reaching a semblance of normalcy took nearly three years, during which we remained steadfast in risk mitigation across these fronts. Adaptations in processes, timing, procurement strategies, and collaborations with skilled contractors were pivotal in this regard. Despite each disruption, we observed a consistent upward trend in average daily rates, particularly for newer or like-new assets.”

Mitul Patel, Principal

 

“Anticipate various exit scenarios: While one of our investments succeeded with the SBA refinance strategy, another encountered challenges. Legal issues with the borrower disqualified them from SBA eligibility, leading to loan refinance challenges. In hindsight, we were too dependent on a single exit source and now underwrite deals to ensure there are several (refinance, sale, loan sale) exit options available.”

Michael Harper, President, Hotel Lending

 

“Constant exposure to various transactions across different levels has enabled us to recognize patterns and anticipate issues during negotiations. This depth of experience has honed our ability to streamline the process, focusing on the crucial issues and avoiding unnecessary distractions. Ultimately, efficiency is paramount.”

Kevin Cadin, General Counsel

 

“The priority lies in cultivating a pipeline rather than managing individual transactions. The true value lies in the pipeline itself, not the deals outlined in term sheets. This approach grants the freedom to negotiate without the pressure of immediate results. Consequently, I rarely push terms or additional proceeds because I know the depth of additional opportunities and have confidence in the channels that have been developed to continue generating opportunities.”

Daniel Siegel, Principal and President, CRE

 

“The90% rule. It is often better to make a decision with 90% of the information or90% of what you would ideally like an output to be. That last 10% which is for perfection often leads to analysis paralysis and the opportunity cost of waiting is often greater than the value achieved in getting the last 10%. There is no such thing as perfect.”

Brian Waldman, Chief Investment Officer