Collier’s Aaron Jodka on Commercial Real Estate Markets in 2026
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The commercial real estate market is experiencing a fundamental shift. After years of dislocation, we're seeing signs of stabilization, but this recovery looks different from past cycles. In a recent Peachtree Point of View conversation, Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman spoke with Aaron Jodka, Director of Research for U.S. Capital Markets at Colliers. In this episode, Aaron offered valuable insights into where the market is heading and what it means for investors.
A Market in Rebalancing
Aaron describes the current environment as one of rebalancing rather than rapid recovery. "I feel that the state of the commercial real estate markets are in a state of rebalancing, where we're seeing improving signs of fundamentals across most asset classes," he explains. Unlike the post-financial crisis period, when aggressive Fed intervention created a V-shaped recovery, today's environment is characterized by measured growth without the same liquidity backstop.
This matters for investors who may be expecting quick value appreciation. "It shouldn't be a V shape," Aaron cautions. "I wouldn't expect that all of a sudden we're off 10%, 15% value growth in a short period of time. It's going to be a slow and steady climb because the environment and backdrop is different today than it was coming out of the global financial crisis."
The Private Credit Opportunity
For investors seeking current income and downside protection, private credit continues to offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. Aaron notes that private credit has been "one of the driving forces in commercial real estate for the last 15 years, if not longer," filling the void left by regulated banks pulling back from real estate lending.
The sustainability of private credit as an investment strategy is backed by structural advantages. Real estate-backed loans provide stability that corporate debt cannot match, with values that don't adjust overnight and assets that generate consistent cash flow. Insurance companies have significantly increased their allocations to private credit precisely because it aligns with their long-term liabilities and income requirements.
When asked about the relative attractiveness of debt versus equity, Aaron's response should interest investors evaluating their allocations: "I think we're still in a period where private credit is still on a risk reward benefit outweighing equity. But I think that pendulum is starting to swing where that equity investment is starting to look really attractive."
Sector-Specific Opportunities
Not all commercial real estate sectors are positioned equally. Aaron identifies retail properties as particularly compelling: "I really like retail at the moment. We're not building very much across this country." Limited new supply combined with retailers adapting to omnichannel strategies creates favorable supply-demand dynamics.
He also sees generational opportunities in select office assets, despite negative headlines. "True main and main locations, trophy assets are doing very well," he notes, though location and basis are critical factors. Industrial and multifamily fundamentals remain sound long-term, with supply concerns diminishing. In hospitality, the lack of new construction paired with demand from affluent consumers creates attractive entry points for experienced operators.
Key Takeaways
Recovery Will Be Gradual: Without aggressive Fed intervention, commercial real estate values will appreciate more slowly than in previous cycles, creating extended windows for strategic acquisitions.
Private Credit Remains Compelling: For investors prioritizing income and principal protection, private credit offers superior risk-adjusted returns in the current environment, though equity is becoming more attractive.
Sector Selection Matters: Retail, select office properties and hospitality assets with limited new supply offer compelling risk-reward profiles for 2026 and beyond.
Investors who understand market fundamentals, maintain flexibility in their capital deployment and partner with experienced operators will be best positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Listen to the full conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast to hear more insights from Aaron Jodka on commercial real estate market dynamics, the 10-year treasury outlook and what data points matter most heading into 2026.
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The commercial real estate market is experiencing a fundamental shift. After years of dislocation, we're seeing signs of stabilization, but this recovery looks different from past cycles. In a recent Peachtree Point of View conversation, Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman spoke with Aaron Jodka, Director of Research for U.S. Capital Markets at Colliers. In this episode, Aaron offered valuable insights into where the market is heading and what it means for investors.
A Market in Rebalancing
Aaron describes the current environment as one of rebalancing rather than rapid recovery. "I feel that the state of the commercial real estate markets are in a state of rebalancing, where we're seeing improving signs of fundamentals across most asset classes," he explains. Unlike the post-financial crisis period, when aggressive Fed intervention created a V-shaped recovery, today's environment is characterized by measured growth without the same liquidity backstop.
This matters for investors who may be expecting quick value appreciation. "It shouldn't be a V shape," Aaron cautions. "I wouldn't expect that all of a sudden we're off 10%, 15% value growth in a short period of time. It's going to be a slow and steady climb because the environment and backdrop is different today than it was coming out of the global financial crisis."
The Private Credit Opportunity
For investors seeking current income and downside protection, private credit continues to offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. Aaron notes that private credit has been "one of the driving forces in commercial real estate for the last 15 years, if not longer," filling the void left by regulated banks pulling back from real estate lending.
The sustainability of private credit as an investment strategy is backed by structural advantages. Real estate-backed loans provide stability that corporate debt cannot match, with values that don't adjust overnight and assets that generate consistent cash flow. Insurance companies have significantly increased their allocations to private credit precisely because it aligns with their long-term liabilities and income requirements.
When asked about the relative attractiveness of debt versus equity, Aaron's response should interest investors evaluating their allocations: "I think we're still in a period where private credit is still on a risk reward benefit outweighing equity. But I think that pendulum is starting to swing where that equity investment is starting to look really attractive."
Sector-Specific Opportunities
Not all commercial real estate sectors are positioned equally. Aaron identifies retail properties as particularly compelling: "I really like retail at the moment. We're not building very much across this country." Limited new supply combined with retailers adapting to omnichannel strategies creates favorable supply-demand dynamics.
He also sees generational opportunities in select office assets, despite negative headlines. "True main and main locations, trophy assets are doing very well," he notes, though location and basis are critical factors. Industrial and multifamily fundamentals remain sound long-term, with supply concerns diminishing. In hospitality, the lack of new construction paired with demand from affluent consumers creates attractive entry points for experienced operators.
Key Takeaways
Recovery Will Be Gradual: Without aggressive Fed intervention, commercial real estate values will appreciate more slowly than in previous cycles, creating extended windows for strategic acquisitions.
Private Credit Remains Compelling: For investors prioritizing income and principal protection, private credit offers superior risk-adjusted returns in the current environment, though equity is becoming more attractive.
Sector Selection Matters: Retail, select office properties and hospitality assets with limited new supply offer compelling risk-reward profiles for 2026 and beyond.
Investors who understand market fundamentals, maintain flexibility in their capital deployment and partner with experienced operators will be best positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Listen to the full conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast to hear more insights from Aaron Jodka on commercial real estate market dynamics, the 10-year treasury outlook and what data points matter most heading into 2026.
Wall Street Journal | Las tiendas de crédito suelen conceder préstamos con niveles de financiación más altos que los que utilizan los bancos, lo que se traduce en un mayor riesgo de impago y pérdida, según Moody's. El sector también está poco regulado y muchas firmas de crédito privadas tienen un historial relativamente corto. Muchas no existían cuando el colapso del mercado hipotecario de alto riesgo de 2007 desencadenó la crisis financiera mundial que se prolongó hasta 2009.
Con menos restricciones regulatorias que los bancos, los prestamistas de crédito privados pueden ser más ágiles a la hora de satisfacer las demandas del mercado y las necesidades de los prestatarios, dijo Greg Friedman, director ejecutivo de Peachtree Group, una firma de inversiones que otorga préstamos inmobiliarios comerciales.
«Los bancos tienden a reaccionar más al rendimiento histórico, mientras que el crédito privado tiende a ser más proactivo con respecto a las perspectivas futuras del rendimiento del activo, por lo que el riesgo puede verse de manera diferente», añadió.
La relación entre préstamo y valor típica del préstamo bancario promedio que respalda una propiedad comercial oscila entre el 50 y el 65%, dijo Friedman. Sin embargo, la ratio promedio de los préstamos de crédito privado oscila entre el 60 y el 75%, dijo.
«Hay un ancho de banda muy limitado para determinar a quién quieren prestar estos bancos regionales, comunitarios y nacionales en este momento. Por lo tanto, si el crédito privado no existiera, creo que nos encontraríamos en un entorno mucho más difícil para los bienes raíces comerciales» dijo Greg Friedman, director gerente y director ejecutivo del prestamista no bancario Peachtree Group. «Hemos visto que se nos presentan más oportunidades en las que los bancos no están dispuestos a financiar proyectos, y los bancos regionales, en particular, están presionando a los prestatarios para que les paguen, lo que obliga a los prestatarios a buscar otras fuentes de capital».
¿Está interesado en saber cómo está aumentando el crédito privado en medio de la volatilidad del mercado y los cambios en la dinámica de la CRE? Lea el artículo completo aquí para conocer la opinión de nuestro director ejecutivo sobre la evolución del panorama crediticio y lo que significa para el futuro de la financiación inmobiliaria.
