Mark Zandi's Economic Outlook for Commercial Real Estate
Mark Zandi joins Peachtree Group's Peachtree Point of View to explore the economic outlook, CRE loan maturities, private credit and opportunities for commercial real estate investors.
Mark Zandi's Economic Outlook for Commercial Real Estate
As commercial real estate moves through another stage of the market cycle, investors are asking a familiar question: Where are the opportunities today?
In the latest episode of Peachtree Point of View, Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group, and Daniel Savage, SVP of Investment & Strategy at Peachtree Group, welcomed Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the U.S. economic outlook and what it means for commercial real estate investors.
Rather than focusing solely on interest rates, the conversation explored a broader shift taking place across capital markets. As higher financing costs reshape the industry, investment decisions are increasingly driven by capital structure, refinancing needs and disciplined underwriting.
For investors, understanding those dynamics may be just as important as following economic headlines.
What is driving today's commercial real estate market?
Several factors continue to influence investment decisions across commercial real estate.
These include:
• Higher long-term interest rates
• Moderating inflation
• Slower but stable economic growth
• A large wave of commercial real estate loan maturities
• Continued reliance on private credit
According to Zandi, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience despite ongoing uncertainty. While financing costs remain elevated, he expressed optimism about the long-term outlook for the economy, commercial real estate and financial markets.
That combination creates a market where investors must balance patience with opportunity.
Why capital allocation matters more in this cycle
Every commercial real estate cycle creates different opportunities.
Today's market is less about predicting when interest rates will decline and more about determining where capital can be deployed most effectively.
Many commercial real estate loans originated during a lower-rate environment are approaching maturity. As those loans refinance, borrowers may need additional capital or more flexible financing structures.
Friedman noted that approximately $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate loans are expected to mature over the next several years.
That refinancing activity is creating opportunities across the capital stack, particularly for investors who can provide financing solutions.
Rather than viewing this as a period of broad market distress, the discussion framed it as a period of capital repositioning.
What role does private credit play?
Private credit has become an increasingly important source of financing within commercial real estate.
What is private credit?
Private credit refers to loans made by non-bank lenders rather than traditional financial institutions. In commercial real estate, these investments can include bridge loans, construction loans, mezzanine financing and preferred equity.
As traditional lenders have become more selective, private credit has helped fill financing gaps for borrowers seeking flexible capital solutions.
During the discussion, Zandi noted that he feels better about the private credit market today than he did a year ago. He pointed to improving transparency, greater market discipline and increased attention from both investors and regulators as positive developments for the industry.
He also emphasized that private credit remains a relatively small portion of the overall financial system, while continuing to play an increasingly important role in commercial real estate financing.
Three key takeaways for investors
1. Market cycles change investment opportunities.
Today's environment requires investors to evaluate opportunities through the lens of capital structure rather than assuming lower interest rates will drive the next phase of the market.
2. Refinancing activity will remain a major market driver.
As commercial real estate loans mature, refinancing needs are likely to create opportunities for lenders, borrowers and investors across the capital stack.
3. Long-term optimism remains intact.
While near-term market conditions require discipline, Zandi expressed confidence in the long-term strength of the U.S. economy and commercial real estate. Successful investors often adapt their strategies as cycles evolve rather than relying on a single approach in every market environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is private credit in commercial real estate?
Private credit is financing provided by non-bank lenders. It includes bridge lending, construction financing, mezzanine debt and preferred equity that help borrowers finance or refinance commercial real estate projects.
Why are commercial real estate loan maturities important?
As existing loans mature, many properties must refinance at today's interest rates. This can require additional equity, new financing structures or alternative lending solutions, creating opportunities for investors with access to flexible capital.
Is commercial real estate still an attractive investment?
According to Mark Zandi, the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy, commercial real estate and financial markets remains positive. While market conditions have changed, investment opportunities continue to exist for investors who understand the current phase of the cycle and maintain disciplined underwriting.
How does capital structure affect commercial real estate investing?
Capital structure refers to how a property or investment is financed through debt, equity or hybrid financing. During periods of higher financing costs, understanding capital structure becomes increasingly important because it influences refinancing options, investment risk and potential returns.
Peachtree Group Earns Spot on PERE Credit 100
PERE Credit: The first edition of the PERE Credit 100 is an annual ranking of the leading commercial real estate private credit managers active around the globe.
The PERE Credit 100 ranks managers by the amount of capital raised from external investors for real estate private credit strategies over a five-year period. This edition captures cumulative capital raised between 2021 and 2025, inclusive.
The top 50 firms in the inaugural ranking collectively raised $304.7 billion during the five years ending in 2025. This is an 18 percent increase from the volume of $259.1 billion tracked for the five years ending in 2024.
Peachtree Group ranked #77 on the list.
Read the article and see the full list on perecredit.com.
Peachtree Group's First Special Situations Fund I, LP Investment
ATLANTA (July 7, 2026) – Peachtree Group, a leading commercial real estate investment firm, today announced the first investment completed through Peachtree Special Situations Fund I, LP, marking an important milestone for the firm's newest equity strategy.
The investment consists of approximately $14.5 million of preferred equity investment from Peachtree Group as part of a total capitalization of approximately $42 million. The financing supports the acquisition and repositioning of the 203-key DoubleTree Suites Detroit Downtown Fort Shelby, which will undergo a comprehensive renovation and conversion to Embassy Suites by Hilton. The project is designed to enhance the property's long-term value through brand elevation, targeted capital improvements and operational enhancements.
The transaction exemplifies the type of opportunity the fund was created to pursue. As commercial real estate owners and sponsors continue to navigatere financing challenges, liquidity constraints and increasing capital requirements.
"This investment reflects how we're approaching today's market," said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree Group. "We're seeing a meaningful opportunity set driven more by market dislocation than distress. Capital remains available, but often not in the right form or at the right level of the capital stack. By providing flexible capital solutions, we can help sponsors execute attractive business plans while maintaining a disciplined focus on downside protection and positive, risk-adjusted returns."
The fund's strategy is centered on the investment pillars below:
- Preferred, structured and common equity investments provide capital solutions to sponsors facing liquidity constraints, refinancing gaps or equity shortfalls while offering enhanced downside protection.
- Special situations investments to pursue opportunities including REO acquisitions, deed-in-lieu transactions, discounted note purchases and other situations where disciplined structuring and an attractive basis create compelling investment opportunities.
While the strategy maintains flexibility across commercial real estate sectors, the fund is expected to focus primarily on hospitality opportunities, where Peachtree believes its vertically integrated platform provides a competitive advantage. The firm's capabilities span credit, equity and development, as well as asset and property management, enabling it to identify, structure and execute opportunities across the entire commercial real estate lifecycle.
"The days when market appreciation alone could do most of the work are largely behind us," said Michael Ritz, EVP, investments at Peachtree Group. "Today's environment rewards investors who can identify liquidity gaps, structure capital creatively and execute business plans that create value rather than relying on a rising tide."
Peachtree Special Situations Fund I, LP, has a target size of $250 million and represents the firm's fourth dedicated equity fund. The strategy builds on Peachtree's long standing track record of investing across hospitality and other commercial real estate sectors.
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2026 Market Insights
Peachtree Group's leadership team is actively shaping the conversation across commercial real estate and private credit, providing perspective on a market defined by capital constraints, refinancing pressure and emerging opportunity.
What changes do you expect to see in the commercial real estate market in 2026?
Greg Friedman | Managing Principal & CEO
“It’s an inflection point… you’re going to start seeing assets trade… it’s not an issue with the fundamentals at the asset level, it’s more of an issue of broken balance sheets.”
What has been the key to the firm’s ability to succeed across different market cycles?
Jatin Desai | Managing Principal & CFO
“We’ve had to be very agile to pivot through all these various things… that’s what’s helped us find good opportunities by not being so set in being just a developer, operator or owner… and pivoting and finding the right partner really made a difference for us to do what we wanted to do, but also grow beyond that.”
How does Peachtree Group approach capital structuring for complex historic redevelopment projects?
Jared Schlosser | Head of Credit Originations and Commercial PACE
“Projects like this require thoughtful structuring given the complexity of historic redevelopment and construction completion… that complexity is exactly why sponsors seek lending partners with the experience and balance sheet to structure capital solutions and help move projects forward.”
How are deferred capital expenditures impacting the hotel sector today?
Michael Ritz | EVP Investments
“That capex doesn’t go away… brands need reinvestment to protect guest experience. But many owners simply can’t fund it.”
What does it take to successfully develop hotels in today’s market environment?
Will Woodworth | SVP, Investments
“Developing hotels in today’s environment requires both conviction and capability… our vertically integrated platform and access to capital allow us to partner with best-in-class brands to deliver properties on-time and on-budget that will elevate the markets in which we build.”
What are borrowers looking for in lending partners today?
Daniel Siegel | President and Principal CRE, Credit
“With banks pulling back and refinancing risk rising across the market, demand for experienced private lenders has accelerated… borrowers are not just looking for capital. They are looking for partners who understand assets, cash flow and downside risk.”
How is EB-5 financing supporting development projects?
Adam Greene | EVP, EB-5
“In this case and in many cases where Peachtree implements EB-5, having that funding source from these foreign investors allows us to give developers a slightly better deal than they might otherwise get from traditional sources… it’s a really worthy development tool.”
You can listen to our leadership team give these insights and more on our YouTube channel.
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