CNBC: 연준 금리 인하: 상업용 부동산 투자자들의 판도를 바꿀 것인가, 아니면 그냥 가짜?

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피치트리 그룹 CEO 그렉 프리드먼: CNBC의 패스트 머니

연방준비은행이 9월에 연방기금 금리를 50베이시스 포인트 인하하면서 상업용 부동산 (CRE) 투자에 미치는 영향에 대한 새로운 논의가 촉발되었습니다.일각에서는 저금리 환경으로의 복귀에 대한 낙관론이 나오고 있지만, 채권 시장은 장기 금리가 여전히 높은 수준을 유지하고 인플레이션 리스크가 지속되고 있다는 점에서 다른 양상을 보이고 있습니다.이는 연준이 정한 단기 금리와 10년물 국채 같은 장기 금리가 독립적으로 움직이는 경우가 많다는 점을 상기시켜 주는 좋은 소식입니다.

 

오늘날의 고금리 환경은 CRE의 가치 펀더멘털을 재편합니다.현재 10년물 재무부 금리는 약 4% 로 2022년 이전 평균의 두 배에 달하므로 CRE 가치를 재조정해야 합니다.2022년 최고점 이후 CRE 가치가 20% 하락했다는 보고에는 맥락이 필요합니다. 이러한 가치 평가는 크게 달라진 금리 환경에 뿌리를 두고 있습니다.오늘날의 시나리오는 성장 추세가 둔화될 것으로 보여 투자자들은 더 오랜 기간 더 높은 금리라는 “새로운 경기”에 적응해야 합니다.

 

CRE 자산 전반에 걸쳐 다양한 부문이 서로 다른 방식으로 높은 금리에 대응합니다.예를 들어, 호텔은 여행이 회복됨에 따라 탄탄한 수요의 혜택을 누리고 있으며, 다세대 자산은 리파이낸싱 압박에도 불구하고 계속해서 탄력성을 보이고 있습니다.그러나 오피스 자산은 세속적 문제와 금리 중심 문제로 인해 상당한 부담을 안고 있습니다.

 

미연준이 금리인하를 단행하고 있음에도 불구하고, CRE 자산, 특히 만기일이 다가오는 자산에 대한 리파이낸싱은 지속적인 어려움을 안겨주고 있습니다.금리가 인상되면 부채 비용이 상승하고 현금 흐름이 위축되는 동시에 전체 자산 가치 평가에 영향을 미쳐 스트레스가 가중됩니다.

역풍에도 불구하고 현재 환경은 전략적이고 민첩한 투자자에게 독특한 기회를 제공합니다.금리 인상은 자산 가치를 떨어뜨릴 수 있지만, 적당한 레버리지와 미래 지향적 전략으로 오늘날의 시장을 헤쳐나갈 준비가 되어 있는 투자자에게는 오늘날의 과제가 미래의 역풍으로 발전할 수 있습니다.연준의 최근 움직임은 “장기 상승” 시대를 의미하므로, 빠르게 적응하는 CRE 투자자들은 전례 없는 기회를 찾을 수 있으며, 이는 상업용 부동산 분야에서 결정적인 조치를 취할 수 있는 절호의 순간입니다.

 

피치트리 그룹의 CEO이자 전무 책임자인 그렉 프리드먼이 이 주제에 대해 논의하는 것을 참조하십시오. CNBC의 패스트 머니.

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Market Insights: Supplying the Tools in a Reset Market

Market Insights Q2 2025 | The commercial real estate market is resetting, and with $1.3B in loans originated, we’re focused on using private credit and disciplined structuring to uncover value where others see uncertainty.

During the California Gold Rush, thousands rushed west in search of fortune. Few struck it rich. The real winners were those who sold the picks, shovels and other tools needed to sustain the miners’ efforts. They thrived not by chasing the frenzy, but by positioning themselves with strategy and discipline.

Today’s commercial real estate market presents a similar dynamic. The market continues to experience one of its most significant resets in more than a decade. While many assets remain operationally strong, capital structures are under pressure. Higher interest rates, constrained debt markets and a steady wave of loan maturities have created a liquidity gap that traditional lenders are unwilling or unable to fill. Those positioned to provide the tools, in this case, creative solutions, stand to benefit the most.

Private credit continues to be a critical source of capital in today’s market, and our credit team’s activity reflects that demand. As of mid-August, we’ve originated more than $1.3 billion in loans and expect that momentum to continue. Notable transactions include a $53 million bridge loan for a 270-acre mixed-use development in Mesa, Arizona; a $42 million bridge loan supporting the acquisition of the Atlanta Financial Center; $36 million in construction financing for a 179-unit Class A multifamily development in Oregon; and $67.5 million of bridge financing for the recapitalization of the newly opened 187-room Printing House – Tapestry Collection by Hilton property in Nashville. We are well on our way to another record year in originations.

While our private credit platform is meeting the immediate demand for financing, we’re also seeing opportunities that extend beyond traditional lending. Market dislocation is uncovering complex, transitional situations where capital solutions require a more opportunistic approach. Not in broad strokes but in carefully selected, well-structured transactions that require both creativity and discipline.

We are focused on opportunities where mispriced risk meets strong fundamentals, where we can structure downside protection and capture meaningful upside through preferred equity, recapitalizations and discounted acquisitions. Our underwriting process is rigorous, our execution repeatable and our orientation long term.

Across sectors, we are seeing the landscape shift. Hospitality is under pressure from deferred capital expenditures and near-term maturities. Multifamily faces valuation recalibration as cap rates rise and leverage recedes. Even in office, where secular headwinds persist, dislocation is beginning to yield selectively actionable opportunities. In each case, we are evaluating where structure, not just price, can drive durable, risk-adjusted returns.

This environment demands more than capital. It requires a stable, experienced team with the agility to work up and down the capital stack and the relationships to source deals early. That is what our platform was built for. With deep connectivity across lenders, owners and operators, we consistently uncover opportunities before they reach the broader market and execute with a clear philosophy, shared incentives and a team-based culture that rewards precision.

We are not chasing momentum or relying on market recovery to drive returns. We are focused on underwriting the business plan, aligning with operators and structuring for protection on the downside with the potential for asymmetric outcomes on the upside.

Like those who supplied the tools that built lasting fortunes during the Gold Rush, we are not chasing momentum or relying on chance. We are focused on providing the structure, discipline and alignment needed to uncover value where others see uncertainty. Cycles like this reward preparation and conviction, and we believe the months ahead will offer opportunities for those positioned to act with clarity and discipline.

We are ready to put the right tools to work.

— Greg Friedman, Managing Principal & CEO

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Hotel Management | Ask the experts: what is the best hospitality investment right now?

In a recent discussion with Hotel Management, Brian Waldman, Chief Investment Officer at Peachtree Group, emphasized the importance of opportunistic investments in the current hospitality market.

In a recent discussion with Hotel Management, Brian Waldman, Chief Investment Officer at Peachtree Group, emphasized the importance of opportunistic investments in the current hospitality market. While premium-branded select-service and compact full-service hotels are generally stable across market cycles, Waldman noted that the most compelling opportunities often arise from unique situations rather than adhering strictly to a single chain scale or technology.

Waldman also highlighted the significance of transparency in hotel financing. He advised that owners should be forthcoming with lenders about potential challenges and deviations from plans, as early transparency fosters credibility and collaborative problem-solving, which is crucial in navigating financial uncertainties.

Peachtree Group's approach aligns with these insights, focusing on strategic investments that leverage both market opportunities and operational efficiencies. Their portfolio reflects a commitment to identifying and capitalizing on situations where value can be enhanced through decisive action and transparent partnerships.

Read full article on hotelmanagement.net

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Reuters: Sectors Up Close: Travel 'will outpace inflation over the next decade'

US summer flight bookings are down 10% year-on-year — even though airfares are cheaper — and the airline sector is lagging behind the wider market. Nevertheless, Greg Friedman of Peachtree Group says the market will pick up and even benefit in 2026.

Reuters | US summer flight bookings are down 10% year-on-year — even though airfares are cheaper —  and the airline sector is lagging behind the wider market. Nevertheless, Greg Friedman of Peachtree Group says the market will pick up and even benefit in 2026.