“확장하고 척”—햄릿이 “될 것인가, 되지 않을 것인가”라는 유명한 질문처럼, 우리도 중요한 계시를 받기 직전입니다.우리는 대체로 간과되고 있는 문제인 지속적인 금리 인상으로 급격한 변화를 맞이하고 있는 걸까요?이러한 변화는 단기 및 장기적으로 상업용 부동산 및 기타 자산군에 어떤 영향을 미칠까요?공공 부문과 민간 부문은 불가피한 상황에 대비하고 있습니까?오늘날 우리는 답보다 더 많은 질문에 직면하고 있습니다. 높은 금리 환경에서는 우유부단함이 더 이상 가능하지 않습니다.
COVID, 글로벌 금융 위기, 닷컴 불황과 같은 지난 몇 번의 경기 침체기와 달리, 미연준은 금리를 대폭 인하하여 매우 낮은 이자비용 덕분에 현금 흐름이 마이너스나 극도로 부족한 상황에서도 상업용 부동산 소유주와 대출 기관이 쉽게 “Extend and Pretend”에 참여할 수 있도록 했습니다.
오늘날 우리는 줄어들 기미를 보이지 않는 상업용 부동산 경기 침체에 처해 있습니다.탄탄한 고용 시장에 힘입어 경제는 상당한 강세를 자랑하며 기록적인 유동성은 관망하고 있습니다.금리를 이전 사이클 수준으로 되돌리는 데 필요한 촉매제가 보이지 않습니다.따라서 필자는 “익스텐드 앤 프레텐드 (Extend and Pretend)" 가 효과적인 전략이라고 생각하지 않으며, 현실적으로 우리가 새로운 금리 패러다임에 진입하거나 정상으로의 복귀가 현실화될 수 있기 때문에 더 많은 파산, 압류, 강제 매각에 대비할 것입니다. 안타깝게도 가치, 특히 저금리 자산의 가치를 파괴할 수 있기 때문입니다.궁극적으로 시장 혼란 속에서도 결정력과 유동성을 갖춘 기업에게는 적절한 순간에 이를 확보할 수 있는 중추적인 기회가 있을 것입니다.
이 코멘트는 원래 에 실렸습니다. 그렉 프리드먼의 링크드인 페이지 이에 대한 응답으로 2024년 5월 1일에 월스트리트 저널 기사 제목: 연준이 인하하더라도 초저금리의 시대는 끝났습니다.
Reuters | US summer flight bookings are down 10% year-on-year — even though airfares are cheaper — and the airline sector is lagging behind the wider market. Nevertheless, Greg Friedman of Peachtree Group says the market will pick up and even benefit in 2026.
Schwab Network: With the summer season well underway, Greg Friedman is bullish on hotel and travel stocks. He believes there's favoritism toward some companies that investors may not realize unless they look under the surface. Greg breaks down the trends he sees to explain why optimism is high for companies like Hyatt (H), Hilton (HLT), and Airbnb (ABNB).
ATLANTA (July 21, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading vertically integrated commercial real estate investment platform, today announced the launch of its Peachtree Special Situations Fund, a $250 million fund designed to unlock value in mispriced, high-quality hotel and other commercial real estate assets due to today’s capital market illiquidity rather than underlying fundamentals.
“We believe the next 12 to 18 months offer some of the most compelling risk-adjusted opportunities we’ve seen since the global financial crisis,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “As balance sheet stress and refinancing hurdles intensify in the hotel space and other commercial real estate sectors, Peachtree is uniquely positioned to deploy capital where it’s needed most, delivering attractive returns while providing real solutions for sponsors and lenders alike.”
With nearly $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing in 2025 and hotels carrying some of the largest refinancing and capital expenditure burdens, Peachtree’s Special Situations Fund is positioned to step in where traditional capital has pulled back.
Many hotel and commercial real estate owners who financed properties in the zero-interest-rate era now face gaps in their capital stacksas rates remain elevated and liquidity tightens. Peachtree’s strategy bridges this gap by providing creative downside-protected capital solutions to reposition assets and unlock embedded value.
“This fund is about capitalizing on dislocation, not chaos,” Friedman said. “We’re targeting high-quality assets not distressed by systematic factors but by capital structure, and we’re doing it with the speed, creativity and certainty of execution that have defined Peachtree’s reputation for more than a decade.”
The Special Situations Fund targets investments that sit between value-add and opportunistic, combining attractive upside potential with meaningful downside protection. Core strategies include:
· Off-market acquisitions: Securing underperforming or mispriced hotels as well as select multifamily, student housing, self-storage and other commercial real estate sectors for repositioning and stabilization.
· Preferred and hybrid equity solutions: Providing flexible capital to sponsors needing liquidity for acquisitions, development or refinancing with structures designed to protect basis and enhance current yields.
· Distressed purchases from lenders: Acquiring assets directly from banks through deed-in-lieu or post-foreclosure transactions, often at discounts to outstanding loan balances and well below replacement cost.
Peachtree’s fully integrated platform spans direct lending, CPACE financing, development, acquisitions and capital markets and provides a unique lens into shifting market dynamics. Long standing relationships with community and regional banks and other stakeholders enable Peachtree to source high-value opportunities early before they reach the broader market.
“We’re the first call when a sponsor or lender needs a fast, reliable solution,” Friedman said. “Speed and surety of close are critical in this environment, especially when dealing with complex capital stacks and distressed notes.”
The fund’s geographic focus is nationwide, with significant deal flow expected in markets with strong demand fundamentals and recent pricing resets, including Texas, Florida and California. Peachtree expects to hold its first close within the next 60 to 90 days and complete the final close within its targeted 18 months following the initial close.
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Fund Information
THIS IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE ANY SECURITY. AN OFFERING IS MADE ONLY BY THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH PEACHTREE PC INVESTORS, LLC MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.
