
2025년으로 접어들면서도 피치트리 그룹은 미국 경제에 대해 여전히 낙관적입니다.정책 변화부터 시장 확장에 이르기까지 위험이 지속되지만 기본 펀더멘털은 견고합니다.Moody's Analytics의 수석 이코노미스트 마크 잔디 (Mark Zandi) 는 최근 초청 연설자로 나서 경제 회복력과 특히 상업용 부동산 관련 당면 과제에 대한 통찰력을 공유했습니다.
경제 하이라이트 및 주요 인사이트
Mark는 노동 참여 증가와 생산성 향상에 힘입어 GDP 성장률이 2.5% 에서 3% 사이가 될 것으로 예상되는 미국 경제의 탁월한 성과를 강조했습니다.실업률이 약 4% 에 머물러 있는 등 노동시장은 여전히 견조하며, 가구, 특히 상위 소득 계층의 가구들은 탄탄한 자산 가치와 낮은 부채 상환 비율의 혜택을 받고 있습니다.그러나 그는 인플레이션과 고금리 부채로 인한 부담을 느끼고 있는 저소득 가구에 대한 압박을 지적했습니다.이러한 대조는 경제 지표 호조와 국민 심리 간의 격차를 야기합니다.

2025년의 위험 및 전망
그는 2025년 경제 환경을 좌우할 수 있는 몇 가지 주요 리스크에 대해 다음과 같이 설명했습니다.
- 관세 및 이민 정책: 예상되는 관세 인상과 엄격한 이민 규정은 인플레이션을 증폭시키고 특히 건설 및 농업과 같은 산업에서 노동 시장을 혼란에 빠뜨릴 수 있습니다.
- 자산 시장 변동성: 밸류에이션 연장과 정책에 따른 재정 적자는 시장 불안정을 가중시킬 수 있습니다.
- 이자율 전망: 연방기금 금리는 2025년 초까지 4% 로 하락할 것으로 예상되며, 2026년에는 3% 로 더 낮아질 것으로 예상됩니다.한편, CRE 밸류에이션의 주요 벤치마크인 10년물 국채 수익률은 4% ~ 4.5% 로 보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상됩니다.
상업용 부동산 및 민간 신용
Mark는 현재 2010년 규모의 8배에 달하는 사모신용이 지난 10년간 폭발적으로 성장했다고 강조했습니다.그는 이러한 급격한 확장의 위험을 인식하면서도 경제 펀더멘털의 안정화가 중요한 완화 요인이라고 언급했습니다.
그는 또한 2022년 이후 상당한 조정이 있었음을 인정하면서 CRE 밸류에이션의 현재 상태에 대해서도 언급했습니다.자산 가격은 자산 유형에 따라 최고점 대비 10~ 20% 하락했지만, 많은 부문의 가치 평가가 공정 가치에 근접함에 따라 향후 수익률에 대해서는 조심스러운 낙관론을 내비쳤습니다.그러나 높은 금리 환경에서는 거래량 감소와 내재가치에 대한 불확실성으로 인해 가격 발견이 어려워지기 때문에 여전히 과제가 남아 있습니다.그러나 그는 의미 있는 조정을 거친 CRE가 잠재적으로 더 강력한 수익률을 낼 수 있는 독보적인 위치에 있다는 점을 강조하며 결론을 내렸습니다.
관련 게시물

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ATLANTA (Oct. 15, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, today announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.
Monge brings more than two decades of leadership experience in hospitality, real estate investment and operations to Peachtree. Most recently, he served as president of Seaview Investors where he led asset management and daily operations for a portfolio of eight Marriott and Hilton-branded upscale hotels in California. Before this, he spent nearly 16 years at Sunstone Hotel Investors, rising to senior vice president, chief administrative officer, secretary and treasurer, where he oversaw corporate functions and played a pivotal role in managing a $3.9 billion asset base.
“Lindsay’s extensive background leading hotel operations and real estate investment platforms makes him an invaluable addition to our leadership team,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “His experience across public REITs, private equity and owner-operator platforms uniquely positions him to enhance value creation for our investors while strengthening our asset management capabilities.”
His career also includes senior leadership roles at Magna Flow as chief operating officer and at Alpha Wave Investors as chief administrative officer and partner where he directed strategic planning, growth initiatives and asset repositioning strategies. Earlier in his career, Monge held management positions at The Westgate Hotel and began his hospitality career in Hilton’s executive management program at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.
Monge earned an MBA in strategy and leadership from the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in hotel administration from Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration. He also completed executive education in the LEAD Business Program at Stanford Graduate School of Business.
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Peachtree Group to Launch Equipment Finance Division, Expanding Credit Capabilities Across Key Sectors

ATLANTA (Oct. 13, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”) announced today the launch of a new equipment finance division, further broadening its credit platform and reinforcing its ability to provide flexible equipment lease financing across industries, including commercial real estate and hospitality.
The division will be led by seasoned executives Brian Shaughnessy and Roger Johnson, who together bring more than 60 years of experience in equipment finance, specialty finance and portfolio acquisitions. They will be joined by experienced industry executive Dennis Shields, further strengthening the team’s depth and expertise. Shields spent the last 15 years with Meridian Leasing, helping to grow its profitable leasing business.
“This launch is more than the start of a new business line. It continues relationships that span more than 15 years,” said Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal and CEO. “We have known and worked alongside Brian and Roger for well over a decade, watching them build reputations as trusted leaders in equipment finance. Their arrival marks both a reunion and a natural extension of our long-standing ties.”
This new platform represents a progression of Peachtree’s established private credit ecosystem. Many of the firm’s commercial real estate clients also require equipment financing, particularly in hospitality, where Furniture, Fixtures,and Equipment (FF&E) play a critical role in new developments. By building on the firm’s long-standing history and applying proven expertise from its principals’ experience financing essential use equipment, Peachtree is positioned to deliver tailored financing solutions that address client needs across multiple sectors and industries.
The launch highlights Peachtree’s ability to adapt its platform to fill gaps left by traditional lenders while keeping long-term client relationships at the center of its strategy.
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“Large banks continue to pull back from serving small and mid-sized businesses, leaving a significant void in the market,” Friedman said. “Our new platform allows us to step in with creative financing solutions, whether that means helping medical facilities upgrade technology or supporting hotels with FF&E for new developments, so businesses can access the capital they need to grow.”
Shaughnessy, who joins as president and principal of the equipment finance division, is a senior executive with more than 35 years of experience in financial services and investment banking. He was most recently co-founder and CEO of IMT Commercial, an alternative portfolio and asset acquisition and management firm.
Johnson, who will serve as executive vice president and principal, is a 30-year portfolio acquisitions and commercial lending veteran. He has a proven track record of developing profitable relationships with C-suite decision-makers at a wide range of financial institutions. Both Shaughnessy and Johnson founded and grew IMT Commercial Credit into a top 120 equipment finance business.
The new unit will initially focus on financing lease transactions ranging from $500,000 to $10 million with terms generally between 24 and 84 months. By leveraging Peachtree’s established credit expertise, infrastructure and balance sheet strength, the division aims to deliver competitive financing options while ensuring timely funding and long-term client relationships.
“Equipment finance requires a deep understanding of the assets, from valuation to structuring and exit strategies,” said Shaughnessy. “Our team brings decades of specialized knowledge that allows us to evaluate risk effectively and deliver certainty of execution for clients.”
Johnson added,“Leasing involves extensive coordination with clients, vendors and lenders, and our goal is to make the process seamless. Clients can count on us not only to secure financing but also to manage the details that keep projects moving forward.”
“Equipment finance is a relationship-driven business where execution matters,” Shields, senior vice president, said. “Our goal is to combine decades of industry expertise with Peachtree’s deep credit platform to offer reliable, creative solutions to clients who are often underserved in today’s lending environment.”
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Fortune: Commercial real estate’s seismic transformation is creating new winners—and losers— in the property market
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Fortune | There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.
The outlook for the office sector has been particularly negative. It’s a tale of two markets right now: roughly 30% of office buildings account for 90% of the vacancies and may never recover, while the other 70% have the chance to stabilize over time. Either way, the office market finds itself at an inflection point, much like the retail market as mall acquisitions were being financed.





