As we move into 2025, Peachtree Group remains optimistic about the U.S. economy. While risks persist—from policy shifts to stretched markets—the underlying fundamentals are strong. This sentiment was echoed by our recent guest speaker, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, who shared his insights on the economy’s resilience and the challenges ahead, particularly for commercial real estate.
Mark emphasized the exceptional performance of the U.S. economy, with GDP growth expected to range between 2.5% and 3%, driven by increased labor participation and productivity gains. The labor market remains strong, with unemployment hovering around 4%, and households—especially those in the top income tiers—benefit from strong asset values and low debt-service ratios. However, he noted the pressures on lower-income households, who are feeling the strain of inflation and high-interest debt. This contrast contributes to a gap between strong economic data and public sentiment.
He outlined several key risks that may shape the economic landscape in 2025:
Mark highlighted the explosive growth over the past decade on private credit, now standing at eight times its 2010 size. While recognizing the risks of this rapid expansion, he noted that stabilizing economic fundamentals is a significant mitigating factor.
He also addressed the current state of CRE valuations, acknowledging a significant correction since 2022. Asset prices are down 10–20% from their peaks, depending on asset type, but he expressed cautious optimism for future returns as valuations in many segments approach fair value. Challenges remain, however, as muted transaction volumes and uncertainty around intrinsic values make price discovery difficult in a higher interest rate environment. However, he concluded by emphasizing that CRE, having undergone a meaningful correction, is uniquely positioned for potentially stronger returns.
ATLANTA (July 21, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading vertically integrated commercial real estate investment platform, today announced the launch of its Peachtree Special Situations Fund, a $250 million fund designed to unlock value in mispriced, high-quality hotel and other commercial real estate assets due to today’s capital market illiquidity rather than underlying fundamentals.
“We believe the next 12 to 18 months offer some of the most compelling risk-adjusted opportunities we’ve seen since the global financial crisis,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “As balance sheet stress and refinancing hurdles intensify in the hotel space and other commercial real estate sectors, Peachtree is uniquely positioned to deploy capital where it’s needed most, delivering attractive returns while providing real solutions for sponsors and lenders alike.”
With nearly $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing in 2025 and hotels carrying some of the largest refinancing and capital expenditure burdens, Peachtree’s Special Situations Fund is positioned to step in where traditional capital has pulled back.
Many hotel and commercial real estate owners who financed properties in the zero-interest-rate era now face gaps in their capital stacksas rates remain elevated and liquidity tightens. Peachtree’s strategy bridges this gap by providing creative downside-protected capital solutions to reposition assets and unlock embedded value.
“This fund is about capitalizing on dislocation, not chaos,” Friedman said. “We’re targeting high-quality assets not distressed by systematic factors but by capital structure, and we’re doing it with the speed, creativity and certainty of execution that have defined Peachtree’s reputation for more than a decade.”
The Special Situations Fund targets investments that sit between value-add and opportunistic, combining attractive upside potential with meaningful downside protection. Core strategies include:
· Off-market acquisitions: Securing underperforming or mispriced hotels as well as select multifamily, student housing, self-storage and other commercial real estate sectors for repositioning and stabilization.
· Preferred and hybrid equity solutions: Providing flexible capital to sponsors needing liquidity for acquisitions, development or refinancing with structures designed to protect basis and enhance current yields.
· Distressed purchases from lenders: Acquiring assets directly from banks through deed-in-lieu or post-foreclosure transactions, often at discounts to outstanding loan balances and well below replacement cost.
Peachtree’s fully integrated platform spans direct lending, CPACE financing, development, acquisitions and capital markets and provides a unique lens into shifting market dynamics. Long standing relationships with community and regional banks and other stakeholders enable Peachtree to source high-value opportunities early before they reach the broader market.
“We’re the first call when a sponsor or lender needs a fast, reliable solution,” Friedman said. “Speed and surety of close are critical in this environment, especially when dealing with complex capital stacks and distressed notes.”
The fund’s geographic focus is nationwide, with significant deal flow expected in markets with strong demand fundamentals and recent pricing resets, including Texas, Florida and California. Peachtree expects to hold its first close within the next 60 to 90 days and complete the final close within its targeted 18 months following the initial close.
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Fund Information
THIS IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE ANY SECURITY. AN OFFERING IS MADE ONLY BY THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH PEACHTREE PC INVESTORS, LLC MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.
You don't think twice about skipping a workout or hitting snooze, until six months later when your back goes out lifting a suitcase. That's the thing about choices: they rarely shout. Most whisper. At the moment, they feel light, harmless, and even forgettable. But over time, they stack up and eventually shape everything.
It's the same in commercial real estate.
For years, the market rewarded financial engineering. Falling interest rates, cap rate compression and cheap capital allowed many investors to ride the momentum and still generate strong returns. That era is over.
We're now operating in a higher-for-longer environment. Interest rates are elevated, traditional lenders have pulled back, and capital markets are volatile. Macroeconomic disruptions, geopolitical risk and inflation-shifting trading policy are repricing risk in real time.
In this environment, every move matters. Every decision, whether to buy, sell, recapitalize or hold, carries more weight than it did even a year ago.
· Capital must be deployed with precision. The margin for error has narrowed. Mispricing risk, overleveraging,or relying on optimistic underwriting can quickly impair a deal.
· Liquidity is a strategic advantage.In a market where many lenders have pulled back or lowered leverage, execution certainty is no longer assumed. It's earned.
· Fundamentals, not financial engineering, define success. Cap rate compression is no longer the tailwind it once was. Returns must come from operational excellence, asset quality and disciplined management.
· Time is costly. In action can be just as damaging as a poor decision. Delays in refinancing or hesitation in uncertain markets can weigh heavily on performance.
At Peachtree, we've built our platform for this exact environment. With a fully integrated investment and credit platform, deep experience across market cycles, and flexible capital ready to deploy, we're well-positioned to take decisive action when others hesitate.
Because in this market, as inlife, every action has a weight and the most successful outcomes are born from clarity, discipline and conviction.
Private credit remains one of the most compelling solutions in today's market, offering downside protection, yield and flexibility. And with traditional capital still constrained, special situation investing is gaining momentum as a primary strategy to unlock value in a dislocated market.
As the landscape evolves, we continue to seek opportunities that leverage our strengths and provide value to our investors.
Hampton Inn & Suites Maui North Shore is now open in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii. The newly built oceanfront hotel, located on the site of the historic Maui Palms Hotel, is owned by Peachtree Group and operated by Springboard Hospitality. The hotel has 136 rooms, ocean-view suites and a design rooted in Maui’s culture.
Read more in this article in Lodging Magazine.
