The Real Estate Reckoning: Why Market Values Still Have Further to Fall

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The commercial real estate market is sending mixed signals, but Mark Vitner, chief economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital, cuts through the noise with a stark reality check: real estate values remain significantly overpriced and the correction isn't over.

In our latest Peachtree Point of View podcast episode,Vitner shares crucial insights every real estate investor needs to hear. While we've avoided the deep recession many predicted, the market hasn't fully adjusted to the new interest rate environment. That creates both risks and opportunities for savvy investors.

The 10-year Treasury, currently trading around 4.5%, isn't high. It's actually at the low end of where rates should be over the next decade. Vitner argues that fair value is closer to 4.7%, with the potential to hit 5% or higher. This shift marks the end of the artificially low-rate era that inflated asset values. Properties must now reprice accordingly.

The disconnect is already evident in the field. At Peachtree Group, CEO Greg Friedman is seeing a 10 to 15% gap between what sellers believe their properties are worth and their true intrinsic value, a lingering effect of years of abundant liquidity that many still expect to return.

But this is where opportunity arises. Vitner recommends targeting investments with high barriers to entry and strong investor control, especially in markets where policy makers have started encouraging development. The sweet spot, according to Vitner, is mixed-use projects in mid-sized cities undergoing a renaissance, where the smartphone generation wants to be closer to the action.

Key Investment Takeaways:

Interest rates are structurally higher: The 10-year treasury will likely trade between 4.5-5.5% in non-recessionary periods, fundamentally resetting real estate valuations

• Geographic opportunities exist: Markets like Charleston, South Carolina, and emerging Alabama markets offer growth with natural barriers to entry, while formerly hot markets like Nashville have cooled

• Mixed-use is the future: Lifestyle-oriented developments that combine residential, retail, and entertainment are capturing demand as people seek walkable, amenity-rich environments

• Debt maturity wall creates pressure: Massive amounts of commercial real estate debt will refinance at much higher rates, forcing realistic pricing discussions

• Consumer spending is shifting: Expect retail consolidation at the lower end as consumer spending normalizes from 71% to a more sustainable 67-68% of GDP

The full conversation reveals why this market correction isn't your typical cycle and how prepared investors can capitalize on the repricing ahead. Don't miss Vitner's complete analysis of regional market dynamics, demographic shifts, and tactical investment strategies.

Listen to the complete episode of Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform for the full strategic breakdown every commercial real estate investor needs to navigate today's market realities.

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Peachtree Group Opens New Office in Austin

Peachtree Group has expanded its national presence with the opening of its first office outside of its Atlanta headquarters in downtown Austin.

Peachtree Group has expanded its national presence with the opening of its first office outside of its Atlanta headquarters in downtown Austin. This move aligns with the company’s growth strategy and commitment to Texas’ commercial real estate market, according to the company.

With significant investments across the state, including ongoing developments in Dallas and San Antonio and an upcoming project in Austin, establishing an office in the state capital conforms with Peachtree’s long-term vision. Austin’s business environment and growth prospects make it an ideal location to strengthen the firm’s reach and partnerships, according to the company.

Peachtree’s connection to Austin runs deep. The firm has been recognized among the Longhorn 100, a distinction honoring the fastest-growing businesses led by the University of Texas alumni. Additionally, Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal/CEO, a University of Texas graduate, actively supports the institution by serving on the Real Estate Fund Advisory Board for the Texas McCombs School of Business.

“Our expansion into Austin marks an exciting milestone for Peachtree Group,” said Friedman. “Texas is a critical market for us, and establishing an office in the heart of downtown Austin will allow us to better support our growing portfolio and deepen our relationships in the region. With our ongoing projects across the state and our strong ties to the University of Texas community, this move reinforces our commitment to long-term investment and growth in Texas.”

The new office is in the 100 Congress building and will serve as a hub for Peachtree’s investment and development activities in the region.

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Commercial Observer: 2025 Power Finance

Peachtree Group’s Managing Principal & CEO, Greg Friedman, recognized on Commercial Observer’s Power Finance 50 list.
Greg Friedman - #48
"It was a highly competitive year for lenders on our list, and we gave props to those who kept the market ticking over with their multiple irons in the fire and several different ways to finance borrowers irrespective of market conditions. Whether they were offering a suite of products, playing up and down capital stacks, buying loan pools or securities, or launching new partnerships, our top lenders are those that offered continuity, reliability, certainty of execution, critical expertise and a wee bit of scrappiness.” — Commercial Observer

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Schwab Network: Rebuilding Commercial Real Estate's Foundation

"Commercial real estate continues to remain in chaos," says Greg Friedman. He believes fundamentals surrounding the industry remain solid but capital markets continue to raise outlook uncertainty.
As Seen on Schwab Network

Schwab Network - "Commercial real estate continues to remain in chaos," says Greg Friedman. He believes fundamentals surrounding the industry remain solid but capital markets continue to raise outlook uncertainty. Greg uses the 10-year treasury as a benchmark for commercial real estate and talks about the other ways sentiment has shifted in the industry.