연준이 금리를 인상함에 따라 이러한 경기 침체 신호를 주시하십시오

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이번 주 초 CPI 보고서에서는 예상보다 높은 PPI에 이어 미국 인플레이션 압력이 올해 처음으로 하락한 것으로 나타났습니다.이는 소비자물가 압력을 완화하기 위한 연준의 지속적인 노력이 성과를 보이기 시작했음을 시사할 수 있습니다.하지만 아직 2% 까지는 갈 길이 멀지만, 아마도 연준은 인플레이션이 마침내 하락 국면에 접어들고 있는 것으로 보고 있을 수도 있습니다.필자의 견해로는 연준이 금리인하를 고려하는 데 필요한 신뢰를 얻기 위해 추가 경제지표가 필요할 것으로 보입니다.

오늘날의 장기간의 높은 금리는 경기 활동을 약화시키고 경기 침체의 위험을 초래하고 있습니다.상업용 부동산 업계에서는 이미 경기 침체에 빠져 있기 때문에 시간이 관건입니다. 올해 금리 인하 전망은 희미합니다.

이러한 지속적인 인플레이션은 특히 수조 달러의 부채가 만기되는 상업용 부동산 부문에 큰 어려움을 주고 있습니다.인플레이션 상승으로 차입 비용이 증가하고 현금 흐름이 감소하며 부동산 가치 평가에도 영향을 미쳤습니다.

부동산 소유주는 부채가 만기됨에 따라 훨씬 더 높은 금리로 리파이낸싱에 직면하게 되며, 이로 인해 부채 상환 비용이 증가하고 수익성이 저하됩니다.현금 흐름에 대한 이러한 부담은 비용 증가 및 수입 감소와 맞물려 악순환을 초래합니다.차입 비용이 상승함에 따라 부동산 가치 평가가 하락하고, 투자자들은 더 높은 수익을 요구하여 시장이 약화되고 있습니다.이러한 하락 추세는 금융 제약을 강화하여 채무 불이행 및 시장 불안정 위험을 초래하므로 즉각적인 주의가 필요한 상황입니다.

연준이 새로운 경제적 도전을 촉발하지 않으면서 대규모 붕괴 전에 우리를 이 소용돌이에서 벗어나게 할 수 있을까요?

앞으로 나아가려면 경제 데이터를 기반으로 한 통화정책 조정과 취약 부문을 지원하기 위한 보다 표적화된 재정 개입이 필요할 수 있습니다.

시장이 어디로 향하든 저는 앞으로 펼쳐질 기회에 대해 열광하고 있으며, 우리 팀은 도전에 대처할 만반의 준비를 갖추고 있습니다.

이 코멘트는 원래 에 실렸습니다. 그렉 프리드먼의 링크드인 페이지 이에 대한 응답으로 2024년 5월 19일에 글로브스트리트 기사 제목: 연준이 금리를 인상함에 따라 이러한 경기 침체 신호를 주시하십시오.

팔로우 그렉 프리드먼피치트리 그룹 링크드인에서

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Every Move Matters: Navigating the New Era of Commercial Real Estate

Market Insights Q1 2025 | At Peachtree, we've built our platform for this exact environment. With a fully integrated investment and credit platform, deep experience across market cycles, and flexible capital ready to deploy, we're well-positioned to take decisive action when others hesitate.

You don't think twice about skipping a workout or hitting snooze, until six months later when your back goes out lifting a suitcase. That's the thing about choices: they rarely shout. Most whisper. At the moment, they feel light, harmless, and even forgettable. But over time, they stack up and eventually shape everything.

It's the same in commercial real estate.

For years, the market rewarded financial engineering. Falling interest rates, cap rate compression and cheap capital allowed many investors to ride the momentum and still generate strong returns. That era is over.

We're now operating in a higher-for-longer environment. Interest rates are elevated, traditional lenders have pulled back, and capital markets are volatile. Macroeconomic disruptions, geopolitical risk and inflation-shifting trading policy are repricing risk in real time.

In this environment, every move matters. Every decision, whether to buy, sell, recapitalize or hold, carries more weight than it did even a year ago.

 · Capital must be deployed with precision. The margin for error has narrowed. Mispricing risk, overleveraging,or relying on optimistic underwriting can quickly impair a deal.

 · Liquidity is a strategic advantage.In a market where many lenders have pulled back or lowered leverage, execution certainty is no longer assumed. It's earned.

 · Fundamentals, not financial engineering, define success. Cap rate compression is no longer the tailwind it once was. Returns must come from operational excellence, asset quality and disciplined management.

· Time is costly. In action can be just as damaging as a poor decision. Delays in refinancing or hesitation in uncertain markets can weigh heavily on performance.

At Peachtree, we've built our platform for this exact environment. With a fully integrated investment and credit platform, deep experience across market cycles, and flexible capital ready to deploy, we're well-positioned to take decisive action when others hesitate.

Because in this market, as inlife, every action has a weight and the most successful outcomes are born from clarity, discipline and conviction.

Private credit remains one of the most compelling solutions in today's market, offering downside protection, yield and flexibility. And with traditional capital still constrained, special situation investing is gaining momentum as a primary strategy to unlock value in a dislocated market.

As the landscape evolves, we continue to seek opportunities that leverage our strengths and provide value to our investors.

 

— Greg Friedman | Managing Principal & CEO of Peachtree Group
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Peachtree Opens Hampton Inn in Hawaii

Peachtree opens Hampton Inn in Hawaii

Hampton Inn & Suites Maui North Shore is now open in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii. The newly built oceanfront hotel, located on the site of the historic Maui Palms Hotel, is owned by Peachtree Group and operated by Springboard Hospitality. The hotel has 136 rooms, ocean-view suites and a design rooted in Maui’s culture.

Read more in this article in Lodging Magazine.

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Peachtree Group Opens New Office in Austin

Peachtree Group has expanded its national presence with the opening of its first office outside of its Atlanta headquarters in downtown Austin.

Peachtree Group has expanded its national presence with the opening of its first office outside of its Atlanta headquarters in downtown Austin. This move aligns with the company’s growth strategy and commitment to Texas’ commercial real estate market, according to the company.

With significant investments across the state, including ongoing developments in Dallas and San Antonio and an upcoming project in Austin, establishing an office in the state capital conforms with Peachtree’s long-term vision. Austin’s business environment and growth prospects make it an ideal location to strengthen the firm’s reach and partnerships, according to the company.

Peachtree’s connection to Austin runs deep. The firm has been recognized among the Longhorn 100, a distinction honoring the fastest-growing businesses led by the University of Texas alumni. Additionally, Greg Friedman, Peachtree’s managing principal/CEO, a University of Texas graduate, actively supports the institution by serving on the Real Estate Fund Advisory Board for the Texas McCombs School of Business.

“Our expansion into Austin marks an exciting milestone for Peachtree Group,” said Friedman. “Texas is a critical market for us, and establishing an office in the heart of downtown Austin will allow us to better support our growing portfolio and deepen our relationships in the region. With our ongoing projects across the state and our strong ties to the University of Texas community, this move reinforces our commitment to long-term investment and growth in Texas.”

The new office is in the 100 Congress building and will serve as a hub for Peachtree’s investment and development activities in the region.