상업용 부동산의 그레이트 리셋에서 기회 찾기

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이 에피소드에서는 피치트리의 관점, 그렉 프리드먼 환영합니다 데이비드 비트너, Newmark의 글로벌 리서치 책임자 겸 전무 이사로, 상업용 부동산 환경에 대한 심층적인 논의를 진행해 주셨습니다.지속적인 금리 인상의 영향, 진화하는 부채 시장, 급변하는 환경 속에서의 투자 기회 등 주요 경제 및 시장 동향을 다룹니다.이번 논의의 주요 주제는 금리 인상으로 상업용 부동산 가치 평가가 지속적으로 어떻게 변화하고 있는지입니다.

상업용 부동산 투자자 초저금리 시대가 도래하면서 사업자들은 시장 역학의 근본적인 변화에 직면하고 있습니다.뉴마크의 글로벌 리서치 책임자인 데이비드 비트너 (David Bitner) 는 그레그 프리드먼 (Greg Friedman) 과의 대담에서 이러한 변화가 일시적인 것이 아니라 투자 환경의 영구적인 특징이므로 기대치와 전략을 완전히 재조정해야 한다고 강조합니다.

비트너는 올해도 금리 변동성이 지속될 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 10년 만기 국채는 3.8% 에서 5% 중반 사이가 될 것으로 보입니다.이러한 변동성은 지속적인 경제 불확실성과 맞물려 모든 부동산 유형의 거래 활동 및 자산 가치 평가에 상당한 영향을 미칠 것입니다.

이러한 어려움에도 불구하고 밝은 부분이 나타나고 있습니다.오피스 시장은 2023년 4분기 중 18분기 만에 처음으로 긍정적인 순 흡수율을 보였는데, 이는 전환점이 될 수 있음을 시사합니다.산업 부문은 쇼어링 추세에 근접하고 5,300억 달러 이상의 제조업 투자 계획에 힘입어 특히 2차 및 3차 시장에서 회복될 태세를 보이고 있습니다.다가구 부동산, 특히 신축 부동산은 기존 주식에 비해 매력적인 가격 동력을 보여줍니다.

데이비드는 자본을 투자하려는 투자자들에게 주식 수익률보다 스프레드가 더 매력적으로 보이는 부채 투자에 상당한 배분을 하는 균형 잡힌 접근 방식을 제안합니다.그는 특히 수익률이 14% 에 달할 수 있는 직접 대출 및 메자닌 채권의 기회를 강조합니다.주식 측면에서는 하위 시장 선정의 중요성을 강조하면서도 트로피 오피스 전환에서 부가 가치를 창출할 수 있는 기회를 지적합니다.

향후 몇 년간 약 2조 달러의 상업용 부동산 대출이 만기될 것으로 예상되는 가운데, 채무 만기 장벽은 여전히 큰 우려사항으로 남아 있습니다.지금까지 은행들은 대부분 “연장하고 가장하는” 전략을 사용해왔지만, 데이비드는 규제 압력과 줄어드는 연장 옵션이 2025년에 더 많은 결의안을 내놓아야 거래 활동이 증가하고 가격이 상승할 수 있다고 제안합니다.

 

팟캐스트는 또한 상업용 부동산 시장에 도전과 기회를 창출할 수 있는 관세 제안 및 규제 완화 노력을 포함하여 새 행정부의 잠재적 정책 영향에 대해서도 다룹니다.

상업용 부동산 투자자와 운영자에게 2025년은 새로운 시장 현실에 지속적으로 적응하는 해가 될 것입니다.성공을 거두려면 변동성을 수용하고, 기대 수익률을 조정하고, 부채 및 주식 기회 전반에 걸쳐 보다 표적화된 투자 접근 방식을 취해야 합니다.

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피치트리 포인트 오브 뷰 오늘날의 복잡한 투자 환경을 탐구하고 위축된 시장을 탐색하고 잘못 책정된 위험을 활용하기 위한 전문적인 통찰력과 실행 가능한 전략을 제공합니다.각 에피소드는 시장 역학을 심층적으로 분석하여 끊임없이 변화하는 금융 세계를 더 잘 이해하고 헤쳐나갈 수 있는 지식을 제공합니다.투자, 자본 조달, 파트너 등 무엇을 원하든, 우수한 위험 조정 수익을 창출하는 데 필요한 도구와 전략을 공개합니다.

에피소드를 놓치지 마세요. 지난 토론을 확인하고 앞서나가세요. [지금 들어보세요]

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Institutional Real Estate: How to Play Inflation

Why premium select-service hotels stand out - In an era where stubborn inflation keeps central bankers awake at night and rate volatility tests investor discipline, smart capital is quietly gravitating to assets that can flex, literally overnight.
Landscape photo of a hotel at night time with moving cars in front
Written By Greg Friedman

Institutional Real Estate – In an era where stubborn inflation keeps central bankers awake at night and rate volatility tests investor discipline, smart capital is quietly gravitating to assets that can flex, literally overnight. Hotels, with their daily lease resets, are one of the few real estate plays with a built-in inflation defense. But not all hotels are created equal. For investors looking to put capital to work today, premium-branded select-service and compact full-service hotels stand out as some of the most reliable performers across economic cycles, including inflationary periods.

Short Leases, Big Advantage

Unlike offices or retail, where lease terms can lock in rates for years, hotels are designed to be nimble. Operators adjust room rates daily, matching market demand and passing through cost increases with far less lag than other real estate types. During the inflationary surges of the 1970s and early 1980s, room rates in the United States climbed almost in lockstep with the Consumer Price Index. More recently, ADRs rose rapidly during the inflation spike of 2021–2023, especially in well-positioned premium brands. Yet flexibility alone is not enough. Demand elasticity still matters. Not every guest will pay more just because costs are higher. This is where premium select-service and compact full-service assets show their edge.

Why This Segment Holds Up

Hotels at the upper end of the select-service spectrum, including Marriott’s Courtyard and AC Hotels, Hilton’s Hampton Inn and Hilton Garden Inn, and IHG’s Hotel Indigo and Crowne Plaza, strike the balance travelers want: elevated comfort and amenities without full-service prices. They cater to travelers who want quality and consistency without paying for frills they do not use. Business travelers, sports teams and mid-tier corporate groups typically make up the core customer base. This gives owners both repeatability and rate integrity. Compact full-service properties, especially those under strong flags in good urban or suburban nodes, also shine here. They deliver enough amenities, such as an on-site restaurant, meeting space and a bar, to justify a healthy rate premium while keeping operating costs leaner than those of sprawling resorts or luxury assets.


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Peachtree Group Appoints Lindsay Monge as Executive Vice President, Asset Management

Peachtree Group announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.
Graphic announcing the new hire of Lindsay Monge as EVP of Asset Managment, with a headshot of Lindsay Monge on the left handside

ATLANTA (Oct. 15, 2025) – Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading commercial real estate investment firm overseeing a diversified portfolio of more than $8 billion, today announced the appointment of Lindsay Monge as executive vice president of asset management. In this role, Monge will oversee the firm’s hospitality and real estate assets, driving performance, strategic planning and value creation across the portfolio.

Monge brings more than two decades of leadership experience in hospitality, real estate investment and operations to Peachtree. Most recently, he served as president of Seaview Investors where he led asset management and daily operations for a portfolio of eight Marriott and Hilton-branded upscale hotels in California. Before this, he spent nearly 16 years at Sunstone Hotel Investors, rising to senior vice president, chief administrative officer, secretary and treasurer, where he oversaw corporate functions and played a pivotal role in managing a $3.9 billion asset base.

“Lindsay’s extensive background leading hotel operations and real estate investment platforms makes him an invaluable addition to our leadership team,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “His experience across public REITs, private equity and owner-operator platforms uniquely positions him to enhance value creation for our investors while strengthening our asset management capabilities.”

His career also includes senior leadership roles at Magna Flow as chief operating officer and at Alpha Wave Investors as chief administrative officer and partner where he directed strategic planning, growth initiatives and asset repositioning strategies. Earlier in his career, Monge held management positions at The Westgate Hotel and began his hospitality career in Hilton’s executive management program at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.

Monge earned an MBA in strategy and leadership from the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in hotel administration from Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration. He also completed executive education in the LEAD Business Program at Stanford Graduate School of Business.

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Fortune: Commercial real estate’s seismic transformation is creating new winners—and losers— in the property market

There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.
Written By Greg Friedman | Featured on Fortune.com

Fortune | There’s no doubt that commercial real estate, and especially the office market, is undergoing a seismic transformation, one that’s not likely to abate any time soon. A boom time of near-zero-interest-rate policy, abundant liquidity, and cap rate compression over the past decade has given way to a perfect storm–a wall of maturing debt, tightened lending conditions, and cratering property values–all amid higher interest rates that show no sign of returning to their pre-2022 lows.

The outlook for the office sector has been particularly negative. It’s a tale of two markets right now: roughly 30% of office buildings account for 90% of the vacancies and may never recover, while the other 70% have the chance to stabilize over time. Either way, the office market finds itself at an inflection point, much like the retail market as mall acquisitions were being financed.

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