Market Uncertainty and Investment Opportunities: Insights from Jim Costello

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This week we have a special extended Market Update on the Peachtree Point of View podcast. CEO Greg Friedman and SVP Daniel Savage welcomed Jim Costello, Chief Economist and Head of Real Estate Economics at MSCI Real Assets, for a candid discussion about the current commercial real estate landscape. As stakeholders navigate through a period of significant economic uncertainty and policy shifts, Costello offered valuable insights for investors seeking to understand where opportunities might emerge in this volatile environment.

The conversation highlighted how recent economic turmoil has dramatically shifted market expectations. After many investors had been playing the "stay alive until 2025" game, holding on through interest rate shocks in hopes of eventual stabilization, recent policy shifts and uncertainty have "pulled the rug out from under" many market participants.

Key Takeaways for Investors:

  • The end of capital market tailwinds: For decades (1985-2020), falling interest rates provided commercial real estate investors with built-in advantages through cap rate compression. Costello warns this era is likely over, shifting the focus to operational expertise: "The number one thing is going to be managing your properties effectively moving forward."
  • Credit over equity may be the play: In this transitional market, debt investments are currently out performing equity positions on a risk-adjusted basis. Costello notes this creates opportunities for established private credit providers with proper infrastructure and experience over "debt tourists" entering the space     opportunistically.
  • Focus on local fundamentals: Rather than making broad sector-based allocations, Costello suggests investing in markets with strong demographic trends and knowledge-economy foundations. "It's the local fundamentals that matter more. It's about being in a market that has healthy demographics or some other type of growth."
  • Opportunity in uncertainty: Despite potential recession risks, Costello remains optimistic about opportunities, particularly in distressed debt and turn around/special situations: "There's always money to be made in a down market... There's always opportunities for folks who can come in and clean up problems."
  • Corporate bond rates as early indicators: Investors should watch corporate bond rates as leading indicators for cap rate movements, with recent spreads     widening by approximately 40-50 basis points, potentially foreshadowing similar increases in real estate cap rates.

This Market Update discussion sheds light on how investment strategies need to evolve in response to new economic reality. Commercial real estate is transitioning from an era of "financial engineering" to one focused on operational excellence and local market knowledge.

Want more insights to guide your investment decisions? Listen to the full episode of Peachtree Point of View podcast for Jim Costello's complete analysis on market trends, interest rate predictions and specific markets to watch. Follow Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed about commercial real estate opportunities in this rapidly changing landscape.

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Peachtree Group Launches $250 Million Special Situations Fund to Capitalize on Hotel Market Dislocation

Peachtree Group announced the launch of its Peachtree Special Situations Fund, a $250 million fund designed to unlock value in mispriced, high-quality hotel and other commercial real estate assets due to today’s capital market illiquidity rather than underlying fundamentals.

ATLANTA (July 21, 2025) - Peachtree Group (“Peachtree”), a leading vertically integrated commercial real estate investment platform, today announced the launch of its Peachtree Special Situations Fund, a $250 million fund designed to unlock value in mispriced, high-quality hotel and other commercial real estate assets due to today’s capital market illiquidity rather than underlying fundamentals.

“We believe the next 12 to 18 months offer some of the most compelling risk-adjusted opportunities we’ve seen since the global financial crisis,” said Greg Friedman, managing principal and CEO of Peachtree. “As balance sheet stress and refinancing hurdles intensify in the hotel space and other commercial real estate sectors, Peachtree is uniquely positioned to deploy capital where it’s needed most, delivering attractive returns while providing real solutions for sponsors and lenders alike.”

With nearly $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing in 2025 and hotels carrying some of the largest refinancing and capital expenditure burdens, Peachtree’s Special Situations Fund is positioned to step in where traditional capital has pulled back.

Many hotel and commercial real estate owners who financed properties in the zero-interest-rate era now face gaps in their capital stacksas rates remain elevated and liquidity tightens. Peachtree’s strategy bridges this gap by providing creative downside-protected capital solutions to reposition assets and unlock embedded value.

“This fund is about capitalizing on dislocation, not chaos,” Friedman said. “We’re targeting high-quality assets not distressed by systematic factors but by capital structure, and we’re doing it with the speed, creativity and certainty of execution that have defined Peachtree’s reputation for more than a decade.”

The Special Situations Fund targets investments that sit between value-add and opportunistic, combining attractive upside potential with meaningful downside protection. Core strategies include:

· Off-market acquisitions: Securing underperforming or mispriced hotels as well as select multifamily, student housing, self-storage and other commercial real estate sectors for repositioning and stabilization.

· Preferred and hybrid equity solutions: Providing flexible capital to sponsors needing liquidity for acquisitions, development or refinancing with structures designed to protect basis and enhance current yields.

· Distressed purchases from lenders: Acquiring assets directly from banks through deed-in-lieu or post-foreclosure transactions, often at discounts to outstanding loan balances and well below replacement cost.

Peachtree’s fully integrated platform spans direct lending, CPACE financing, development, acquisitions and capital markets and provides a unique lens into shifting market dynamics. Long standing relationships with community and regional banks and other stakeholders enable Peachtree to source high-value opportunities early before they reach the broader market.

“We’re the first call when a sponsor or lender needs a fast, reliable solution,” Friedman said. “Speed and surety of close are critical in this environment, especially when dealing with complex capital stacks and distressed notes.”

The fund’s geographic focus is nationwide, with significant deal flow expected in markets with strong demand fundamentals and recent pricing resets, including Texas, Florida and California. Peachtree expects to hold its first close within the next 60 to 90 days and complete the final close within its targeted 18 months following the initial close.

Contact:

Fund Information

IR@peachtreepcinvestors.com

THIS IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE ANY SECURITY. AN OFFERING IS MADE ONLY BY THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT MEMORANDUM. SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH PEACHTREE PC INVESTORS, LLC MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.

       

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Every Move Matters: Navigating the New Era of Commercial Real Estate

Market Insights Q1 2025 | At Peachtree, we've built our platform for this exact environment. With a fully integrated investment and credit platform, deep experience across market cycles, and flexible capital ready to deploy, we're well-positioned to take decisive action when others hesitate.

You don't think twice about skipping a workout or hitting snooze, until six months later when your back goes out lifting a suitcase. That's the thing about choices: they rarely shout. Most whisper. At the moment, they feel light, harmless, and even forgettable. But over time, they stack up and eventually shape everything.

It's the same in commercial real estate.

For years, the market rewarded financial engineering. Falling interest rates, cap rate compression and cheap capital allowed many investors to ride the momentum and still generate strong returns. That era is over.

We're now operating in a higher-for-longer environment. Interest rates are elevated, traditional lenders have pulled back, and capital markets are volatile. Macroeconomic disruptions, geopolitical risk and inflation-shifting trading policy are repricing risk in real time.

In this environment, every move matters. Every decision, whether to buy, sell, recapitalize or hold, carries more weight than it did even a year ago.

 · Capital must be deployed with precision. The margin for error has narrowed. Mispricing risk, overleveraging,or relying on optimistic underwriting can quickly impair a deal.

 · Liquidity is a strategic advantage.In a market where many lenders have pulled back or lowered leverage, execution certainty is no longer assumed. It's earned.

 · Fundamentals, not financial engineering, define success. Cap rate compression is no longer the tailwind it once was. Returns must come from operational excellence, asset quality and disciplined management.

· Time is costly. In action can be just as damaging as a poor decision. Delays in refinancing or hesitation in uncertain markets can weigh heavily on performance.

At Peachtree, we've built our platform for this exact environment. With a fully integrated investment and credit platform, deep experience across market cycles, and flexible capital ready to deploy, we're well-positioned to take decisive action when others hesitate.

Because in this market, as inlife, every action has a weight and the most successful outcomes are born from clarity, discipline and conviction.

Private credit remains one of the most compelling solutions in today's market, offering downside protection, yield and flexibility. And with traditional capital still constrained, special situation investing is gaining momentum as a primary strategy to unlock value in a dislocated market.

As the landscape evolves, we continue to seek opportunities that leverage our strengths and provide value to our investors.

 

— Greg Friedman | Managing Principal & CEO of Peachtree Group
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Peachtree Opens Hampton Inn in Hawaii

Peachtree opens Hampton Inn in Hawaii

Hampton Inn & Suites Maui North Shore is now open in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii. The newly built oceanfront hotel, located on the site of the historic Maui Palms Hotel, is owned by Peachtree Group and operated by Springboard Hospitality. The hotel has 136 rooms, ocean-view suites and a design rooted in Maui’s culture.

Read more in this article in Lodging Magazine.