Market Uncertainty and Investment Opportunities: Insights from Jim Costello

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This week we have a special extended Market Update on the Peachtree Point of View podcast. CEO Greg Friedman and SVP Daniel Savage welcomed Jim Costello, Chief Economist and Head of Real Estate Economics at MSCI Real Assets, for a candid discussion about the current commercial real estate landscape. As stakeholders navigate through a period of significant economic uncertainty and policy shifts, Costello offered valuable insights for investors seeking to understand where opportunities might emerge in this volatile environment.

The conversation highlighted how recent economic turmoil has dramatically shifted market expectations. After many investors had been playing the "stay alive until 2025" game, holding on through interest rate shocks in hopes of eventual stabilization, recent policy shifts and uncertainty have "pulled the rug out from under" many market participants.

Key Takeaways for Investors:

  • The end of capital market tailwinds: For decades (1985-2020), falling interest rates provided commercial real estate investors with built-in advantages through cap rate compression. Costello warns this era is likely over, shifting the focus to operational expertise: "The number one thing is going to be managing your properties effectively moving forward."
  • Credit over equity may be the play: In this transitional market, debt investments are currently out performing equity positions on a risk-adjusted basis. Costello notes this creates opportunities for established private credit providers with proper infrastructure and experience over "debt tourists" entering the space     opportunistically.
  • Focus on local fundamentals: Rather than making broad sector-based allocations, Costello suggests investing in markets with strong demographic trends and knowledge-economy foundations. "It's the local fundamentals that matter more. It's about being in a market that has healthy demographics or some other type of growth."
  • Opportunity in uncertainty: Despite potential recession risks, Costello remains optimistic about opportunities, particularly in distressed debt and turn around/special situations: "There's always money to be made in a down market... There's always opportunities for folks who can come in and clean up problems."
  • Corporate bond rates as early indicators: Investors should watch corporate bond rates as leading indicators for cap rate movements, with recent spreads     widening by approximately 40-50 basis points, potentially foreshadowing similar increases in real estate cap rates.

This Market Update discussion sheds light on how investment strategies need to evolve in response to new economic reality. Commercial real estate is transitioning from an era of "financial engineering" to one focused on operational excellence and local market knowledge.

Want more insights to guide your investment decisions? Listen to the full episode of Peachtree Point of View podcast for Jim Costello's complete analysis on market trends, interest rate predictions and specific markets to watch. Follow Peachtree Point of View on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed about commercial real estate opportunities in this rapidly changing landscape.

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Peachtree Group Appoints Industry Veteran Josh Rubinger to SVP of National Accounts

Peachtree Group announced that Josh Rubinger has joined as senior vice president of national accounts for its broker-dealer affiliate, Peachtree PC Investors("PPCI").
Cover photo of Josh Rubinger being appointed as SVP of National Accounts

ATLANTA (Jan. 6, 2025) – Peachtree Group ("Peachtree") announced today that Josh Rubinger has joined as senior vice president of national accounts for its broker-dealer affiliate, Peachtree PC Investors("PPCI"). Rubinger’s role will focus on business development, overseeing relationships with broker-dealers and registered investment advisors (“RIAs”)and supporting the distribution of the firm’s investment offerings.

With more than two decades of experience in financial services and a proven track record of developing strong client relationships, Rubinger's leadership will further strengthen Peachtree's commitment to delivering tailored investment solutions through PPCI.

“This strategic hire underscores our focus on grow thand strengthening Peachtree’s position as a trusted partner within the investment community,” said Brian Cho, president of PPCI. “Josh's extensive experience and strong network of relationships with broker-dealers and RIAs position him as a key asset to our team. His expertise will be instrumental in shaping our selling group and broadening our market reach.”

Prior to joining PPCI, Rubinger served as senior vice president and head of national accounts for Ashford Securities, a broker-dealer wholly owned by Ashford Inc., an alternative asset management company specializing in the real estate and hospitality sectors.

Before Ashford, he served as senior vice president of national accounts for Lightstone Capital Markets, the capital markets division of The Lightstone Group. Rubinger also served as vice president and East Coast national accounts manager at Thompson National Properties LLC. Before entering the alternative investment space, he held roles with Oppenheimer Funds andColumbia Funds.

Rubinger holds a bachelor’s degree from Hamilton College and FINRA Series 7 and 63 securities licenses.

About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.

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Schwab Network: Commercial Real Estate 'Head Fake' Amid Challenges

Greg Friedman sits down with Schwab Network to talk about the outlook for CRE in 2025

The Outlook For Commercial Real Estate in 2025

Greg Friedman featured on Schwab Network talking about CRE in 2025W

Commercial Real Estate 'Head Fake' Amid Challenges

Despite markets bracing for more deregulation under President-elect Donald Trump, Greg Friedman says higher interest rates will damage commercial real estate. He believes regional banks will stay conservative in a high-rate environment, which can squeeze the CRE market. However, Greg says his firm has seen success in multi-family and retail spaces.

Watch More on the Schwab Network

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Yahoo! Finance: The hotel sector benefits from 'muted' supply

Peachtree CEO Greg Friedman recently shared insights on the market with Madison Mills of the Yahoo Finance show Catalysts.

Yahoo – Catalysts - The commercial real estate market (CRE) has struggled amid a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, but hotels have continued to outperform as demand surpasses supply. Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman joined Catalysts to discuss the market outlook.

 

Friedman explained that the pandemic "muted" new supply growth, and as demand has picked up with limited new construction, he believes the hotel industry is benefiting from supply being constrained. He points out supply in the hotel sector is growing at a 40% reduction, while demand remains resilient.

 

Friedman notes that "from an investment perspective," hotel assets trade at higher cap rates. With rates expected to remain elevated, Friedman states, "there's less negative leverage," making the sector increasingly attractive.

 

Regarding office spaces, Friedman sees potential for recovery. "I think we're heading towards a bottoming across the office sector," he said, pointing to rising vacant spaces being repurposed and transformed for new uses. "I think we're heading towards it being more investable," he added.

 

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.